Here is a simple question, asking about 5e Creature rules in particular (I don't have the rules for them): against a typical monster and encounter, with no bonuses or penalties applied, what is the expected chance to hit against a normal creature? What is the game designed and balanced around for it's monster / creature maths?
If you have a 16 in your Primary Stat, with your proficiency bonus, you have a 65% chance to hit against a save/AC of 13 which is the assumed AC at CR 1/4.
Basically, when in the game, as you go up in levels, are you expected to have certain modifiers to effectively play your class? Are you supposed to have +2 for tier 1, +3 for tier 2, +4 for tier 3, +5 for tier 4? Or are the expectations higher?
This chance to hit will remain consistent as you go up the expected AC levels, assuming you put your ASI points into your primary.
How does this interact with feats, which for many tables are primarily chosen with ASIs?
Feats are not accounted for AT ALL. If you use feats, you already blow out the 'expectation' of a 65% chance. A combination of Standard Array (15) plus ASI (Racial, Human or Floating = 17) + a Feat (Athlete +1 = 18) for being a Variant Human PLUS Bless? 75% chance to hit.
An Ancient Silver Dragon has an AC of 22. You have in that scenario a 30% to hit a CR 23 Creature, at level 1.
5e, as far as I understand, typically has a much higher average chance to hit, without requiring magic items that give boosts to hit, etc. But how much is that prejudiced on, say, having certain ability score spreads at certain levels?
A +5 at level 1, grants you 65%, and this is maintained at every level but 9, assuming you start at 16 and put your stat increases into your primary.
So this is the fundamental question.
Do you need to hit 65% of the time?
"Balanced" has been discussed a few times, but nobody cares to define it.
Xanathar says our Level 1 PC fights a 1/4 CR Enemy. If I crack open MToF and check, I see examples to grab a few.
Abyssal Wretch
Derro
Star Spaw Grue
Wretch AC 11, HP 18, Bite (+3 Hit, 5 Damage)
Grue AC 11, HP 17, Bile (+3 Hit, 6 Damage)
Derro AC 13, HP 13, Spear (+2 Hit, 3 Damage)
I set a Level 1 PC against a Wretch on the following site.
You will notice in the pictures below, the Party defaulted to a Blood Hunter, with 14 Str, 14 Dex, and ran the simulator. It claimed I won out of 25 fights, 68% of the time.
So is that 'balanced'? Should a level 1 PC be expected to win against a 1/4 CR monster nearly 70% of the time, when that is what they are suggested to fight in a random encounter as per Xanathars tables?
You tell me I guess.
Does that +1 going from 15, to 16 or 17 make all the difference?
Lets just say I remain utterly unconvinced of any
requirement for a 16 for a PC to be
effective at their role based on the guidelines provided by Wizards themselves...
EDIT: I make no claims that my math is without flaw!
