is the ttrpg market swamped now? could you write a winner?

[Umbran]

There are thousands of great self published novels, for example, but we (the general public) got Twilight and 50 Shades. So.

Define "great".

Twilight and 50 Shades, as much as I find them to be drek, gave reading satisfaction to millions. They perforce must be great in some sense. Which is fine, because there is no general sense.

 

[Reynard]

Define "great".

Twilight and 50 Shades, as much as I find them to be drek, gave reading satisfaction to millions. They perforce must be great in some sense. Which is fine, because there is no general sense.

My point was those were the ones among many other "equally deserving" novels that emerged and became cultural phenomena -- because there is no "deserved" just accident. On the upside, we got The Martian, too, so there's that.

 

[Umbran]

My point was those were the ones among many other "equally deserving" novels that emerged and became cultural phenomena -- because there is no "deserved" just accident.

No, it isn't just accident. There's a wide gulf between "it is complete luck and chance" and "it is entirely due to superior quality of the work". For example, Twilight (and by extension, 50 Shades) didn't succeed completely by chance. The authors were filling pretty predictable reader desires.

 

[MGibster]

Wow. That's one of the most condescending positions around.

It's a position I've heard for many decades now. I've heard a lot of people say that D&D is only popular because it's got a strong brand, but hear me out everyone; Maybe it's a strong brand because TSR and WotC have consistently put out good games for almost five decades now? I try not to be snooty about what I like and especially try to avoid telling other people they wouldn't recognize something good if it bit them on the bum at high noon in the town square. When I really think about it, a lot of what I like is just silly. I've got not room to cast aspersions.

 

[Jd Smith1]

Innovation is thin on the ground these days. So many game designers do little besides pump out endless splatbooks for 5e, adding new spells, monsters, and pc options, no matter how dubious.

Too few actually produce original material, either system or setting. There are a few, but you have to look hard.

I don't expect to buy any RPG material except a few tokens in 2022, because there's so much free stuff out there, and there's nothing currently on the RPG horizon that I am willing to pay for.

 

[CleverNickName]

Innovation is thin on the ground these days. So many game designers do little besides pump out endless splatbooks for 5e, adding new spells, monsters, and pc options, no matter how dubious.

Too few actually produce original material, either system or setting. There are a few, but you have to look hard.

Dungeons & Dragons is the industry standard for tabletop roleplaying games: it isn't just the best-selling game, it's bigger than that. It's the game that has set the expectation of what a tabletop roleplaying game is even supposed to look like. When you ask someone if they want to play a tabletop RPG, the first thing that pops into their head is going to be "Dungeons & Dragons." It's a powerful, valuable brand name in the industry.

The issue isn't that game developers don't know how to make original, cutting-edge games and game systems, or that they lack the creative genius to write original material. The issue is that if they don't make a game that looks and plays the way people expect it to, it isn't going to sell. And for better or worse, that expectation is almost always Dungeons & Dragons.

EDIT: or as @Umbran put it more succinctly,

For example, Twilight (and by extension, 50 Shades) didn't succeed completely by chance. The authors were filling pretty predictable reader desires.

 

[Jd Smith1]

The issue isn't that game developers don't know how to make original, cutting-edge games and game systems, or that they lack the creative genius to write original material. The issue is that if they don't make a game that looks and plays the way people expect it to, it isn't going to sell. And for better or worse, that expectation is almost always Dungeons & Dragons.

The issue is that if they don't produce some half-warmed-over pulp that resembles or interfaces with 5e, it won't sell a lot. But as countless threads here have established, selling RPGs is not a path to wealth.

There are still a few innovative systems and settings that look nothing like 5e; the sad thing is that that sort of innovation and depth is very rare.

 

[Morrus]

The issue isn't that game developers don't know how to make original, cutting-edge games and game systems, or that they lack the creative genius to write original material. The issue is that if they don't make a game that looks and plays the way people expect it to, it isn't going to sell. And for better or worse, that expectation is almost always Dungeons & Dragons.

In fact there are thousands of new games every year, many of which are very innovative. We just haven't heard of most of them for the reasons you cite. A quick look at itch.io or Kickstarter will confirm that!

 

[Jared Earle]

With a budget of £20,000 and making a target of £35,000? Yes, it's possible to make a winner. You need an established reputation or a lot of luck, but it's possible.

Of course, you need to produce something good for it to work, and you need access to talent to make it look worth buying.

 

[MichaelSomething]

Writing an TTRPG and selling an TTRPG are two different skill sets.