FrogReaver
As long as i get to be the frog
I'm comparing D&D to itself and looking at the results over time. Not sure what your coffee addition has to do with that?
Maybe you can walk through your logic there.
D&D 5E D&D pateau-ing?
Maybe you can walk through your logic there.
bedir than
Full Moon Storyteller
As I stated earlier, when something hits a certain level of common knowledge search requests go down.
People don't search for things they already know. They search for the topics within that thing
FrogReaver
As long as i get to be the frog
Sure. That can be one reason search requests go down. Another is that it's losing popularity.
I'd caution a bit on the common knowledge aspect. 5e has a ton of books and content associated with it. People don't remember everything about it. They either google search it or search it on a site hosting D&D 5e content. Perhaps more people are using sites that house such content and skipping the google search altogether. That seems plausible especially in the age of Virtual gaming and using online tools like D&D Beyond, roll20, etc.
Vaalingrade
Legend
The important thing is that we panic.
Haiku Elvis
Knuckle-dusters, glass jaws and wooden hearts.
Agreed. Some of us old timers can remember the glory days of April when our hobby wasn't collapsing before our very eyes.
I'm just going to line my bunker with discarded copies of MMotM before the rioting starts.
JThursby
Adventurer
Of course.
Thinking about the google trend statistic, I don't honestly think it's as predictive as we're making it out to be. We have the anomaly of COVID-19 causing a paradigm shift on top of the already established rising popularity of both the game and the entire medium as an accepted cultural pastime rather people thinking it's only for weirdos and turbonerds. While we've been talking about how the movie will most likely suck and not make a lot of money, what about the D&D MTG sets? The first one sold like crazy, and the second one is looking to be even more popular since it's catering to the most played format of the game. D&D as an IP still has lots of room to expand IMO, since for about 15 years now we've only seen the most tepid of efforts to use the IP in anything other than the infrequent rulebook and adventure releases.
As far as I'm aware, the only year the industry of tabletops experienced negative growth in the 21st century was 2008. It took a world financial crash and the worst version of D&D ever to pull that off. Even in the years between then and 2014 there was positive growth in the industry as a whole. So even if there's a dip in the growth of D&D I can't imagine we're looking at any kind of crash for the hobby.
How far back are you considering, and what are you considering "tabletop"? In the 90s the RPG industry lost a huge amount of it's market to MTG (and Pokemon, etc). I don't have quick access to numbers, but I'm guessing you'll find a few years of negative growth between 1990 and 2000 (when 3E was released). I don't think the gains by third party games overcame the net market losses TSR had over those years, especially if you remove non-RPG products like Dragon Dice from the equation.
I agree that there's no need to panic. From the numbers I've seen I believe there's been a slight plateau. But that just means a bit of slowing of growth. I think that's kind of inevitable given the huge growth D&D has seen in the past few years. Realistically, those gains aren't sustainable forever. It's not a bad sign to see fluctuations like this. It can actually be good in the long rung; better to have small ebbs and flows than huge growth followed by a major crash.
GMforPowergamers
Legend
D&D trended big at the right time.
Stranger things, Big Bang Theory, and other tie ins brought a public eye
twitch and things like it already was booming with video and board games being streamed so D&D streams just came natural in that enviorment...
BUT then covid hit and D&D (games in general) got a boost... You could stay home and play, you could play online when going to the sports game or teh bar were not viable.
this all mixed at just the right way in the moment and as those things die down (stragner things wont be on the air for ever, big bang is already gone) so I think we HAVE to assume the rush will hit bust at some point...
my bet is WotC is seeing it coming and the 2024 books (5.5/6/anniversary edition) is them cashing OUT as much as cashing in...knowing the growth will hit a max now is the best time to get the big PHB/MM/DMG money before everything drops
Stranger things, Big Bang Theory, and other tie ins brought a public eye
twitch and things like it already was booming with video and board games being streamed so D&D streams just came natural in that enviorment...
BUT then covid hit and D&D (games in general) got a boost... You could stay home and play, you could play online when going to the sports game or teh bar were not viable.
this all mixed at just the right way in the moment and as those things die down (stragner things wont be on the air for ever, big bang is already gone) so I think we HAVE to assume the rush will hit bust at some point...
my bet is WotC is seeing it coming and the 2024 books (5.5/6/anniversary edition) is them cashing OUT as much as cashing in...knowing the growth will hit a max now is the best time to get the big PHB/MM/DMG money before everything drops
Sorcerers Apprentice
Hero
The main danger is if WotC will decide to change things up in order to attract new customers and keep the growth going, which often ends up alienating existing fans while failing to attract many new ones.
Alternatively, WotC might look at monetization strategies to extract more money from the existing fan base.
GMforPowergamers
Legend
my money is on trying to do both and alienating both..
as I gaze into my crystal ball (the one that hasn't hit lotto yet) I divine they will try to change enough to 'fix' the game for modern sensibilities and enough that buying the new book is needed enough so they will sell them. However I bet they will try to keep so much the same to pay lip service to "it's all the same system" that people who WANT systematic improvements and changes will find the changes half measures at best.
Ex: I bet they rewrite every race to be the new way but at least 2-3 of them will end up different enough that you can't just say "oh this is just tasha updates" and the same with classes.
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