Urriak Uruk
Gaming is fun, and fun is for everyone
I dunno about statistical validity per se, but this seems about right on a gut reaction level. Dragon Heist can be good fun, and gas some great material, but like ToD YMMV.
I really like Dragon Heist as an alternative starter for new players to Lost Mines of Phandelver (a lot of people of played/heard of it, so something else is a good change). It is a great introduction to a city campaign, but it also depends on a good DM to manage (unlike Phandelver which is great for a new DM).