Before we can proceed, I think something needs to be cleared up.
I feel like I don't even remotely understand your point of view.
The way I see it, world simulation would be:
- PCs are going to the church of the Dragon God
- Hm, what's going on there?
- OK, there are several major actors in the area to be considered:
- Red dragon Xaryn slumbering in the caverns below the Mountain
- Cult of the Black Heart, secretly operating in the whole region
- Grand Inquisitor Micaela who is investigating the cult
- Let's see what they're up to!
- Hm, Northern Mining Company is setting up an excavation there, it is likely the process will awaken Xaryn.
- Hm, the cult got their asses kicked during a witch hunt a couple months ago, so I guess they will be keeping things quiet
- Hm, Micaela earned a Medal of the Flame, so she'll probably be busy preparing a speech and commissioning a proper dress for the ceremony
- OK, looks like everyone but the dragon is out of the picture for now, let's focus on it
- Hm, it is described as "territorial", so I guess it will be pissed by mortals invading its domain
- It also likes to take human form to toy with its prey, so I guess it will shapeshift?
- Ooh, Viktor Esser, the supervisor of the mining operation, is a devout follower of the Dragon God, so it makes sense he'll attend a mass
- Looks like PCs will encounter an angry dragon in a human form who is after Viktor. Cool!
With "looks like PCs will witness a giant firestorm in the mining camp ten kilometres away" or "the church will be attacked by a dragon five days later" or "huh, looks like everyone is busy and ain't nothing will happen" being other possible outcomes.
Compare and contrast to:
- PCs are going to the church of the Dragon God
- Ooh I love dragons!
- Hm, I mentioned a legend about one offhand, about time to introduce the beast properly
- OK, let's figure out why it will show up...
There seems to be an inherent conflict between the two.