D&D (2024) D&D Pre-orders; this is sad

[UngeheuerLich]

This isn't how demand actually works.

Say WotC makes 50% profit on a book sale.

Say they make closer to 80% profit on a sale of a month of DDB subscription. Now, every time someone buys a book instead of buying a DDB subscription, WotC makes less money off of them. This could even be true if the DDB subscription is cheaper than a book sale. Fewer raw $ coming in from books than from DDB.

This is also not how it works.
The question is how many people don't buy anything if they don't buy books.
How many people buy both.

So often it is not that easy. Sometimes book prices have to be adjusted to steer more people where they want.

So the thing a profit-seeking company is going to do is drive everyone to DDB subscriptions. Give incentives for them. Design for them. Funnel people in that direction. Set up the flow of dollars so they flow more to DDB. If the subscriptions cannibalize the book sales, they make more money without having to make a better product.

See above. Always the question if that is possible at all or even desired.

If that effort is successful enough, we could see the books getting worse. Because they're not as protifable, see. So why invest in high quality print runs or big glossy artwork or expensive binding? They're not worth as much money, it's fine if they're not great products - better, even, since that'll drive as many people as possible to DDB.

As I see it now, we can get extra nice books.

And maybe then WotC books get a reputation for being trash, or for just including reprints of the stuff you already get online, or for being superfluous to the D&D experience when the online subscription gives you so much.

Could happen. But is it desired to have books labeled as trash? Is that bad publicity and actually costs them more money. Look at the OGL debacle. The attempt alone has cost them more money than it was worth. Probably negative ad for the movie. Loss of subscriptions.
So it may well be the case that offering high quality books is good press for them.

And maybe they keep publishing books for a while out of a vague sense of obligation or because there's enough grognards who buy cheap books to keep a thin trickle of money coming in. Or maybe they stop because really the books aren't great these days and everyone plays online anyway, well everyone who matters, anyway, everyone who spends money on the most profitable products, anyway.

As said above. The question is if there is overlap and so on. Disregarding is just means being bad at math.

I don't think we're really there today (books are still the main thing), or really on the path, but I do think we could be there in 5-10 years, if the pressure to monetize is there, and if the people sitting in decision-making seats get super into maximizing profitability for D&D specifically. And, maybe crucially, if the online product isn't tooooooo trash.

As I said, could happen, but I really doubt it. That all comes from a very simplified view of the world, neglecting solid math. Just populism.

 

[Warpiglet-7]

Suffice to say they will map it out.

Just like “Coke” makes sure to sell sprite a line of products often creates additional sales. I suspect people that want digital don’t always want books and people that want books don’t always want digital.

For example, even if the digital has a much higher profit margin that a physical book, they will get zero sales from me with the former particularly if it is not “buy to own.”

I have not cracked my books for a while but they have a lot of cute formulas to use extrapolate from the data.

I mean they get you one way or another. If I am in the virtual monetized world, I am probably not buying plastic minis.

I am so invested in my “sand table” and mini collecting I am not going full digital when I DM. My pal only likes digital when he DMs.

They are going to crank out both and milk a lot of us…whatever. I want the stuff.

I predict not loss of physical media for a decade plus at least and maybe not even then

 

[Xenolith234]

Suffice to say they will map it out.

Just like “Coke” makes sure to sell sprite a line of products often creates additional sales. I suspect people that want digital don’t always want books and people that want books don’t always want digital.

For example, even if the digital has a much higher profit margin that a physical book, they will get zero sales from me with the former particularly if it is not “buy to own.”

I have not cracked my books for a while but they have a lot of cute formulas to use extrapolate from the data.

I mean they get you one way or another. If I am in the virtual monetized world, I am probably not buying plastic minis.

I am so invested in my “sand table” and mini collecting I am not going full digital when I DM. My pal only likes digital when he DMs.

They are going to crank out both and milk a lot of us…whatever. I want the stuff.

I predict not loss of physical media for a decade plus at least and maybe not even then

Sand table? Explain, please!

 

[Warpiglet-7]

Sand table? Explain, please!

Sorry! I have a gaming table with a recessed and covered play area. It’s probably not a true sand table!

I don’t really put sand in there! As I understand it though old wargamers would literally have a raised box filled with sand which could be molded into hills and various battlefield terrain on which they placed miniatures (soldiers, vehicles, etc.). Anyone is free to correct me!

I believe Gygax had one!

 

[Parmandur]

Suffice to say they will map it out.

Just like “Coke” makes sure to sell sprite a line of products often creates additional sales. I suspect people that want digital don’t always want books and people that want books don’t always want digital.

For example, even if the digital has a much higher profit margin that a physical book, they will get zero sales from me with the former particularly if it is not “buy to own.”

I have not cracked my books for a while but they have a lot of cute formulas to use extrapolate from the data.

I mean they get you one way or another. If I am in the virtual monetized world, I am probably not buying plastic minis.

I am so invested in my “sand table” and mini collecting I am not going full digital when I DM. My pal only likes digital when he DMs.

They are going to crank out both and milk a lot of us…whatever. I want the stuff.

I predict not loss of physical media for a decade plus at least and maybe not even then

I hear ya. I am not concerned about physical media going away.

 

[mamba]

Is there something missing in particular that would be devastating to lose? Most of what isn't in the SRD to my knowledge is IP specific stuff, like Beholders and Mindflayers. Which are not required, nor are they difficult to re-color and re-add.

If you want to use the SRD as a replacement for the core books, instead of using it to create a 5e-adjacent TTRP yourself, like Tales of the Valiant did, then missing all subclasses per class except for one is probably the biggest issue.

Whether you consider it devastating for a replacement or not is up to you, but what the SRD definitely is not is the core books minus art and a proper layout

 

[mamba]

I have seen it. ToV seemed to have no problem making a very similar game. It might not be the new hip WotC version, but it will be a good version of the game.

That is my point. You can use it to make a similar game, you cannot use a printed version of it as a substitute for the WotC core books.

Your

everything is written there. In the worst case, if there is still demand, someone else will print books.

sounded like someone would just do that if WotC stopped printing books

 

[mamba]

Yeah. I guess you know exactly what I meant. Everything that is needed to recreate the game is written there.

No, I read it as if WotC stopped printing books, someone else could just fill the gap by printing the SRD and those who wanted printed books could use those to continue playing 5e.

If what you mean is that someone else could create a game similar to 5e and continue printing books and if to them having books is more important than playing 5e, they can switch to something that is not that far removed from it, then I agree, that can be done. It has been done more than once already, so at that point you could simply have said they could switch to one of those games

 

[mamba]

If that effort is successful enough, we could see the books getting worse. Because they're not as protifable, see. So why invest in high quality print runs or big glossy artwork or expensive binding? They're not worth as much money, it's fine if they're not great products - better, even, since that'll drive as many people as possible to DDB.

their books are already not exactly known for their high quality bindings. I agree about the print run, the glossy artwork you want in digital as well

 

[mamba]

Books may not be as profitable, they just have to be a gateway.

so have a starter set, maybe the core books and two or three adventures with the rest on DDB only. I can certainly see them getting to that point eventually