D&D (2024) D&D Pre-orders; this is sad

[mamba]

So, WoTC is clearly planning on removing print books from stores and going fully digital, possibly within 10 to 15 years... where no market research can possibly tell them whether or not this is a good idea...

IF they don't have the research or the data to say it is a good idea... why would that be their plan?

again, I am not saying they definitely will. To me they will try to move people over to digital as that is in their best interest either way. If that turns out to be working well enough 10 or 12 years from now, then they will start looking into whether getting rid of print is a good idea or not.

No point in looking into that today for something that may be happening in 15 years and has no bearing on today's strategy

 

[mamba]

By "We just established..." are you talking about you and the mouse in your pocket?

I meant @FitzTheRuke and me since he said / agreed that the profit per unit is higher for digital - by now I am not so sure that he actually meant that however, as another post did not really make sense in that context

 

[FitzTheRuke]

again, I am not saying they definitely will. To me they will try to move people over to digital as that is in their best interest either way. If that turns out to be working well enough 10 or 12 years from now, then they will start looking into whether getting rid of print is a good idea or not.

No point in looking into that today for something that may be happening in 15 years and has no bearing on today's strategy

The biggest trouble I see with your "prediction" is that people have been predicting similar things (as you've been told) for ~25 years. This "10-12 years" part just keeps moving on down the line into the future.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

I meant @FitzTheRuke and me since he said / agreed that the profit per unit is higher for digital - by now I am not so sure that he actually meant that however, as another post did not really make sense in that context

I just explained that, but in case you missed it - I meant that we don't know if it beats it by much. I do think that it's higher. We just don't know how much higher. it might be only a few points.

 

[Hussar]

So the prediction window is between five and twenty years? Well that’s suitably vague. Certainly makes it easier to claim that it’s plausible.

But then we have no idea what the market or indeed a lot of things, will look like in 10 years.

Certainly not 15 years.

And still no explanation of how this prediction is better than all the same predictions of the last twenty years, all of which proved false.

 

[mamba]

NO WE DID NOT.

You've been told over and over - your theory only works if you believe that you can get everyone (or nearly everyone) who would otherwise buy your print books to buy your digital books. The rest of us are telling you: That Can't Happen.

whether it can happen or not is immaterial to the profit for digital being higher, which is what I thought we agreed on. In that case moving someone from book to digital is a way for WotC to make more money, which is what I wrote here

Well, they also prefer it for being hip.

well, it was not my criteria, and I do not consider it the relevant one, even if WotC also likes it for that

Not quite. I don't disagree that Digital is likely to grow compared to Print, but I don't think that it's anywhere near your original assertion of a near-replacement. Not in 15 years. No.

time will tell, I am not saying it is guaranteed but I agree that it getting rid of print hinges on it coming true. I also believe that WotC will try to get there, whether they will succeed is another question.

 

[mamba]

The biggest trouble I see with your "prediction" is that people have been predicting similar things (as you've been told) for ~25 years. This "10-12 years" part just keeps moving on down the line into the future.

yes, someone mentioned that before. I did not predict that at any point before yesterday, so at least I am not personally moving the goal out ever further in hopes to eventually get it right rather than admitting defeat

I do not even consider it a prediction in the sense that this invariably has to become true. It's just that I consider it more likely than not to happen, and I definitely expect WotC to try to get there as they benefit from it. Them succeeding at it is not guaranteed, but they are also not leaving this up to chance and either it happens or it does not

 

[FitzTheRuke]

whether it can happen or not is immaterial to the profit for digital being higher, which is what I thought we agreed on. In that case moving someone from book to digital is a way for WotC to make more money, which is what I wrote here

That's not how it works. Just because your margins on one product are higher than another product (or revenue stream) doesn't mean that if you only offer ONE OF THEM then you'd make more money. It's just not how it works.

well, it was not my criteria, and I do not consider it the relevant one, even if WotC also likes it for that

No, but "liking it" is the only reason that I can see for anyone attempting what you're suggesting. Stupid Bosses can make stupid decisions, and companies tank. That's the only reason I could see for anyone seriously considering your "plan".

time will tell, I am not saying it is guaranteed but I agree that it getting rid of print hinges on it coming true. I also believe that WotC will try to get there, whether they will succeed is another question.

I don't doubt that they'll try. They won't succeed, though.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

yes, someone mentioned that before. I did not predict that at any point before yesterday, so at least I am not personally moving the goal out ever further in hopes to eventually get it right rather than admitting defeat

Right - but you're okay with making the same mistake as waves of people before you, and you won't listen to those who've been there. I don't think being unaware of how common your prediction has been is a point in your favour. (I'm sorry if that comes off harsh, I can't think of a better way to put it. I respect you - I just disagree with you here.)

 

[mamba]

So the prediction window is between five and twenty years? Well that’s suitably vague. Certainly makes it easier to claim that it’s plausible.

not sure where you got 5 years from. I certainly do not see WotC getting into a position of being able to phase books out in 5 years.

I said > 10 and <= 20, and sometimes around 15 as a short form. I also said I consider my prediction failed if it has not happened in 20 years when you (?) asked at what point I would admit defeat.