D&D General Ray Winninger on 5e’s success, product cadence, the OGL, and more.

[DEFCON 1]

This is kind of where I'm seeing things too.

5.5 simultaneously changed too little to remedy edition fatigue after 10 years and changed too much for alot of people on the other end.

True... but then again I might suggest that the D&D doesn't necessarily care if established players buy the three new core books?

If 5E14 players stick with 5E14, that's not really a problem. Yes, WotC won't get $150 from those players... but those players are still D&D 5E players and thus a part of the market for a lot of their subsequent product releases. Any adventure path books, any setting books, any monster lore books... those will all be able to be used by 5E14 players, so it doesn't matter than they haven't gone 5E24. They are still part of the 5E market WotC is selling to.

This is a situation where I think veteran players are once again giving themselves too much credit. Players of 5E14 think that they are the primary purchasing force for Dungeons & Dragons 5E and that everything should really be catered to what they want to buy. But I do not believe (nor do I think WotC believes) that to be the case. WotC always seems to gear their product to NEW players. Opening up their market to the wider world, not constantly trying to just re-sell and re-sell and re-sell product to the same people over and over again. But yet veteran players around here often act and speak as though that if they don't buy what WotC is selling that WotC is going to be in trouble. But nothing could be further from the truth. WotC is fine with whatever those players choose to do.

If veteran 5E players feel like the messiness of 5E14 was becoming just irritating enough that they wanted to join the new players coming in through 5E24... WotC certainly wouldn't say No. But they also I don't think care if they do or don't. After all... veteran players are just as likely to move on to games like Level Up or Shadowdark or Tales of the Valiant as they are anything else (including 5E24) so what's the point in trying to grab onto them so tightly? If they move to a new product, they move. No big deal and not a WotC concern. There's always a large swathe of new players coming in to cater to instead.

 

[eyeheartawk]

True... but then again I might suggest that the D&D doesn't necessarily care if established players buy the three new core books?

If 5E14 players stick with 5E14, that's not really a problem. Yes, WotC won't get $150 from those players... but those players are still D&D 5E players and thus a part of the market for a lot of their subsequent product releases. Any adventure path books, any setting books, any monster lore books... those will all be able to be used by 5E14 players, so it doesn't matter than they haven't gone 5E24. They are still part of the 5E market WotC is selling to.

This is a situation where I think veteran players are once again giving themselves too much credit. Players of 5E14 think that they are the primary purchasing force for Dungeons & Dragons 5E and that everything should really be catered to what they want to buy. But I do not believe (nor do I think WotC believes) that to be the case. WotC always seems to gear their product to NEW players. Opening up their market to the wider world, not constantly trying to just re-sell and re-sell and re-sell product to the same people over and over again. But yet veteran players around here often act and speak as though that if they don't buy what WotC is selling that WotC is going to be in trouble. But nothing could be further from the truth. WotC is fine with whatever those players choose to do.

If veteran 5E players feel like the messiness of 5E14 was becoming just irritating enough that they wanted to join the new players coming in through 5E24... WotC certainly wouldn't say No. But they also I don't think care if they do or don't. After all... veteran players are just as likely to move on to games like Level Up or Shadowdark or Tales of the Valiant as they are anything else (including 5E24) so what's the point in trying to grab onto them so tightly? If they move to a new product, they move. No big deal and not a WotC concern. There's always a large swathe of new players coming in to cater to instead.

I mean, that might very well be how they're looking at it. Though, common sense would dictate that ideally, you would try to do both. Appeal to new people and your existing customer base, growth can't be infinite after all.

As for the dedicated established player who buys everything not being a bellwether for things. I'm not sold on that either. Like, sure, we fall outside the norm. But if you go from someone who buys virtually everything as a given to being far more selective or just holding pat completely, that certainly is indicative of something.

 

[mamba]

So have we seen a verifiable slowdown with 5.5

I doubt we have, for one it is selling in huge numbers (as many printed PHBs by now as 5e sold in its first three years was a recent statement…) but I’d also say that is expected as it is selling to a much larger customer base than 5e initially did, so anything else would be a surprise.

To get some real info on the 2024 edition we probably need another 2 to 3 years of data.

On the other hand 5e was slowing down in 2023/24, and not just because there was a new edition on the horizon, so it will be interesting to see whether 2024 can reverse that beyond an initial sales rush.

It will also be interesting to see when we get the next revision / edition. I am not expecting the 2024 books to last 10 years the way the 2014 ones did

 

[Reynard]

Heh... I would say it's more accurate to say that the 3rd party market decimated themselves, LOL. Once every single Tom, Dick, and Harry thought they could become a D&D designer and publisher off the 3E SRD and OGL... they flooded the market with so much material (90% of which was crap) that they cannibalized themselves moreso than anything WotC did.

That is not how it happened.

The switch to 3.5 killed a number of lines and even companies. Whether you think that is a good thing for consumers because of the glut is a different thing that ignoring 3.5's impact.

 

[mamba]

veteran players are just as likely to move on to games like Level Up or Shadowdark or Tales of the Valiant as they are anything else (including 5E24) so what's the point in trying to grab onto them so tightly?

I expect that WotC does want to hold on to them, and if they are as likely to move to anything else 5e adjacent as to the official revision of 5e, that would be a big failure on WotC’s part.

On the other hand we have no data that suggests they are anywhere as likely to move to eg SD as to 2024.

 

[Velderan]

Thanks for the detailed responses, Mike. They are sincerely appreciated!

I'm curious about the reference to a slowdown with 5.5 though. From this article: "Lanzillo said that the English-language, analog version (ie., physical books) of the 2024 Players Handbook reached the same sales numbers that the 2014 PHB did in three years across all languages." That doesn't sound like a drop, so I'm wondering if you have some additional insights that might mean the marketing blurb is somehow hiding a slowdown.

I don't have exact sales numbers so for the love of god don't cling to the numbers I am using as being anything more than a vague example of a concept. That wasn't aimed at you specifically, but I've posted on this forum long enough to know someone will get all "well actually.." with my made up numbers and an argument will drag on for 5 pages about the numbers I'm clearly saying are made up to begin with to illustrate a concept.

The sales for the 2024 PHB breaking what 2014 PHB sold in 3 years could both be true and a drop off from 2023 numbers, due to the sales increasing each year. Example:

2014 - 100k copies
2015 - 125k copies
2016 - 150k copies
..
..
2023 - 500k copies
2024 - 400k copies

I'm not sure anyone besides Mike Mearls and Ray Winninger posting in this thread have better numbers, but my interpretation of @mearls comment was something like that.

 

[Reynard]

It's still crazy to me that 2024 5E did not launch with a starter set -- or even AS a starter set.

 

[mamba]

2014 - 100k copies
2015 - 125k copies
2016 - 150k copies
..
..
2023 - 500k copies
2024 - 400k copies

the flaw in this is that the PHB was only available for about 5 months by now, not a whole year

 

[TiQuinn]

I doubt we have, for one it is selling in huge numbers (as many printed PHBs by now as 5e sold in its first three years was a recent statement…) but I’d also say that is expected as it is selling to a much larger customer base than 5e initially did, so anything else would be a surprise.

To get some real info on the 2024 edition we probably need another 2 to 3 years of data.

On the other hand 5e was slowing down in 2023/24, and not just because there was a new edition on the horizon, so it will be interesting to see whether 2024 can reverse that beyond an initial sales rush.

It will also be interesting to see when we get the next revision / edition. I am not expecting the 2024 books to last 10 years the way the 2014 ones did

Agreed. I would say that there’s been less enthusiasm about products in the last few years and nothing has quite had the same reaction as a Curse of Strahd or a Tomb of Annihilation and maybe 5.5 hasn’t really changed that trajectory. But that’s still a gut feeling kind of thing.

 

[mamba]

It's still crazy to me that 2024 5E did not launch with a starter set -- or even AS a starter set.

or at least following up with one a month or so after the MM (which already is over 6 months after the PHB…)