D&D General Ray Winninger on 5e’s success, product cadence, the OGL, and more.

[mearls]

However, in the first three weeks of December 2024, the order numbers climbed at an average ~15800 per day, which seems to indicate something odd going on. I note that that doesn't seem to coincide with the availability of the core books, since those went on sale in June 2024, during the period where orders seem to have been abnormally slow. Given that, it would probably be prudent to take the 2024 number with a pinch of salt.

I wonder if it has anything to do with how they stock new accounts. I created a dummy account, and it has access to five different sources. Their system could be treating that as 5 separate transactions to attach those to an account. It's about a 5x shift, so I wonder if that's it.

They also had the advent calendar thing where a bunch of old products were available for free. That might be part of it.

 

[TiQuinn]

I'm still not sure where all these completely new to RPGs itching to give $150 to WotC are coming from. Where were they before, and why did they just decide to buy three thick books for a type of game they've never before experienced? Because if they're learning from existing players, than I'm afraid the veterans you are discounting still matter.

They’re kids and young adults who want to get into it. $150 is not as prohibitive as you may think.

 

[Micah Sweet]

who do you think filled out those playtest polls?

Can they guarantee it? No, but they certainly aim for it. They would be stupid not to given their share of the market


I’d say it is indicative of that being their core audience, esp. given how little actually changed because of those playtests

The new art and increased accessibility is there for the new players (at least to a large degree), the playtest, and by extension much of the actual rules, is there so the existing players do not get left behind

Yup. I really think it's important to keep in mind that the people responding to all their polls and surveys are almost certainly not folks new to RPGs, so specifically not the folks 5.5 is supposedly trying to capture.

 

[Xamnam]

They’re kids and young adults who want to get into it. $150 is not as prohibitive as you may think.

And you definitely don't need all three books to start playing. PHB and an adventure is more than enough.

 

[dave2008]

In terms of supporting both versions, that's my biggest criticism of 5.5. It's not clear what that looks like or what fans expect. There's no clear, easy way to figure out what that actually means. The risk is that something that supports both either requires a lot more design overheard or it appeals to neither group.

I guess I am just not seeing it. I have run 2014 things and 2024 things in my 5e game with no issues. I am confident I could run LevelUp content or Kobolds content with either and can mix and match all 4. If your 5e compatible your a are compatible with the whole galaxy of 5e products IMO. I don't think a designer needs to do anything different in terms of the product. The only difference I might make is in marketing (which I have seen some already do) and say it is compatible for both.

 

[bedir than]

However, in the first three weeks of December 2024, the order numbers climbed at an average ~15800 per day, which seems to indicate something odd going on.

Christmas isn't odd.
That's the time when more people would buy things than any other, and it's a new product so people without any knowledge of D&D are likely gifting.

 

[AlViking]

I'm still not sure where all these completely new to RPGs itching to give $150 to WotC are coming from. Where were they before, and why did they just decide to buy three thick books for a type of game they've never before experienced? Because if they're learning from existing players, than I'm afraid the veterans you are discounting still matter.

Players new to the hobby have always been the primary force behind sustained sales. Many if not most don't really care what old fogeys like you or me think about the game. Old timers may have a minor impact but it will likely always be quite minimal and a significant percentage of the old timers are buying the new version. Even if sales decline it may have more to do with a drop-off from covid era sales than anything to do with a new version.

 

[mamba]

we're just arguing levels. How much did WotC change because it needed changing... how much did they not change because they didn't want to offend existing players... how much did they change to help onboard new players...

yes, in the end that is levels. My point was more that holding on to the existing players is valuable to WotC. They do not want those to be ‘as likely to move to A5e, ToV or SD as 2024’, as you said. They want to make sure that 2024 is much more likely to be what they move to than any of the others.

But my original comment about any of this was in counter to eyehearthawk's statement earlier, which was:

"5.5 simultaneously changed too little to remedy edition fatigue after 10 years and changed too much for alot of people on the other end."

Meaning that they thought that what we got was wrong in both directions. Which I just don't think is true. The 5E24 we got is no more the right or wrong tactic as either leaving 5E14 pretty much as it were with just a handful of additional minor errata, or a completely overhaul to 6E.

I agree with eyehearthawk’s opinion on 5.5, but I agree with you that this is a personal opinion, not a universal truth

 

[J-H]

Honest question: does it need to? I always understood the goal of 5e24 more than anything was to maintain the status quo, not to light a fire or shift landscapes. Isn't that really the whole point of changing so little?

Unless you're making character options, does it matter which version of 5e you write an adventure or magic item for? Characters are maybe a bit more powerful, but if an encounter ends in 2.4 rounds instead of 2.8 rounds, does it matter?

A few spells are different, but the number of NPC spellcasters who will be materially affected by Chromatic Orb getting better is very low. I always attach a spell summary in caster statblocks for quick reference, anyway.

I don't have a great feel for how much of the 5e publishing industry works on character options vs. magic items vs. adventures/modules, but the risk and impact isn't equal across all fields.

Interesting data for the order numbers! You can also look at the number of registered users online at any given moment via the DDB forums. Here's what that shows for 2024, by month:

I used D&D Beyond for about 5 years, but didn't touch the forums at all until a couple of months ago. I'm really only on the forums now to join the litany of unheard complaints about not having a way to turn off the unwanted 5.24 content. It's causing too much clutter in my own character sheets, and too much confusion for players running conventional 5e.

Another avenue for data might be seeing how many games on Roll20 or FantasyGrounds show as running 5e or 5.24, if they differentiate between the two.

 

[mamba]

But the real question for anyone else in particular about any of this is "Does it actually matter?"

Now perhaps for someone like you or Mike Shea... designers who have to decide whether or not to hitch your future designs to the 5E24 wagon or not...

I’d say it matters to everyone creating content for it, including WotC, at least to some degree

If you are playing now, you might get tired of it in 3 years already, so to the customers it does matter a lot less

That does not mean it is not worth discussing though