D&D General The $150,000 Question: How TSR Learned It Was Dying (And Why I Was in the Room) by Ken "Whit" Whitman

Found this on Facebook and thoughts folks here would be interested.

A lot of people ask me: "If you were just the Gen Con coordinator, how do you know so much about TSR's internal strategy?"
Fair question.
Here's a little story that might give me some legitimacy.
In 1994, TSR's VP of Marketing, Rick Behling, convinced Lorraine Williams to spend $150,000 on market research.
That was a MASSIVE amount of money for TSR at the time.
They paid Nielsen—yes, the TV ratings people—to add questions about Dungeons & Dragons to one of their regular surveys.
The results came back.
And I was in the meeting when Rick presented them.
Here's what we learned:
-9 million people had played D&D at some point in their lives.
-2 million people were actively playing.
-TSR controlled 80% of the role-playing game market.
-The other 20% was "leakage" to competitors.
-On paper, we were crushing it.
But then Rick explained the real problem.
He used a metaphor I'll never forget:
"The RPG industry is like a water pipe. TSR controls the pipe. But there are little springs—little holes—where water leaks out to other companies.
The problem is, the pipe is only about 7 years long.
Most people get into D&D, play for roughly 7 years, and then get out. Forever.
They don't come back."
That's when I realized TSR was in trouble.
Because if your entire business model depends on:
Capturing new players
Flooding them with so much product they can't afford competitors
Losing them after 7 years
Then finding NEW players to replace them
...you're not building a sustainable business.
You're building a treadmill.
And eventually, you run out of new players.
Rick's strategy—the one TSR actually used—was this:
"Make so much product, there's no money left over to buy other people's product."
Flood the market.
Capture the entire wallet.
Starve the competition.
It worked for a while.
Until it didn't.
Three years later—1997—TSR collapsed.
Wizards of the Coast bought us.
Spanked us. Hard. Because Wizards figured out what TSR never did: You don't win by flooding the market for 7 years.
You win by keeping players for LIFE.
So why was I in that meeting?
I was the Gen Con coordinator.
Gen Con was TSR's biggest marketing event—30,000+ attendees, vendors, distributors, press.
Rick wanted someone who understood the ground-level reality of the market.
I wasn't an executive.
But I had access.
I saw things.
I heard things.
I was in rooms where strategy was discussed.
And 30 years later, I remember that meeting like it was yesterday.
Because Rick's "water pipe" metaphor explained everything:
Why TSR made so many products
Why quality dropped
Why retailers couldn't keep up
Why players got exhausted
Why we collapsed
We optimized for the wrong thing.
7-year wallet capture instead of lifetime engagement.
I'm telling these stories because:
1. I was there. I witnessed things that aren't in the history books.
2. For my children. So they understand what Dad did and why it mattered.
3. For the ADHD community. Because my brain is Swiss cheese—I forget names but remember strategic presentations from 30 years ago.
4. For gaming history. Because if I don't tell these stories, they disappear.
Podcast coming: "ADHD is a Hell of a Thing."
TSR stories. ADHD chaos. Cosmic justice. The water pipe. And why being in the room matters.
More stories coming.
PS - why haven't you and Joe and all these things shoot at the TSR logo well, from what I remember, Rick Behling was hired away from Hasbro. Interesting to think that has bro sent in espionage to finally get what they wanted just 20 years later! Bew ha ha ::cough:: ha ha!

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I can't follow the Facebook link without logging in. But Ken Whitman is possibly the most prolific scammer active in the TTRPG gaming world today. If he told me it was raining I would need to check the sky first, and then I would have to make sure he didn't steal my wallet while I was looking up.

Also, the annecdote shows a major lack of understanding when you think about it. Keeping a customer for an average of 7 years is a problem? That's an amazing success. I can only assume Ken never heard of customer engagement or product lifecycles. TSR's model then obviously had major problems, but this shows that Ken was never going to be part of the solution.
 
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I can't follow the Facebook link without logging in. But Ken Whitman is possibly the most prolific scammer active in the TTRPG gaming world today. If he told me it was raining I would need to check the sky first, and then I would have to make sure he didn't steal my wallet while I was looking up.
Not doubting you, but I've not heard of this guy and his rep. How/why did he get that reputation?
 



Not doubting you, but I've not heard of this guy and his rep. How/why did he get that reputation?

That's exactly why it needs to be said.

Here's a link to a blog that has been tracking his scams since 2015: Not Another Dime Search "Ken Whitman scam" on YouTube and you'll get a ton of stuff. Tenkar's Tavern has a number of good ones.

He's been accused of running companies as pyramid scams. He has operated under more than 20 companies/pseudonyms. He has multiple non-delivered Kickstarters. He's been part of killing RPGs, board games, animated series, and even a movie. The list is looooong.
 
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I very much doubt that 5e has more than a 7 year average retention, so I don’t think he managed to identify the actual problem, let alone proposed the right solution (make sure you have customers for life instead).

Sure, having them for life would be great but that is neither realistic nor needed, and I am not sure what your strategy to accomplish that would look like either.
Also, retaining them as players for 20 years after they bought the core books does not help you one bit, you need to keep them as repeat customers.

The real problem to me was the ‘flood the market’ approach while simultaneously disregarding both actual sales and production costs while doing so
 
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I very much doubt that 5e has more than a 7 year average retention, so I don’t think he managed to identify the actual problem, let alone proposed the right solution (make sure you have customers for life instead).

Sure, having them for life would be great but that is neither realistic nor needed, and I am not sure what your strategy to accomplish that would look like either.
Also, retaining them as players for 20 years after they bought the core books does not help you one bit, you need yo keep them as repeat customers.

The real problem to me was the ‘flood the market’ approach while simultaneously disregarding both actual sales and production costs while doing so
Yeah, it seems that 5E success is more making sure the game remains attractive to the next generation of Middle and High Schoolers and accessible for that seven year journey.
 

Whatever things that Whit Whitman may have done, doesn't make his TSR observations incorrect.

Especially the observation about the '7 year pipe'. Since WOTC bought TSR:
3.0 - 3 years
3.5 - 5 years
4 - 6 years
5(2014) - 10 years
5(2024) - 1 year and counting.

Seems that WOTC is paying attention to the pipeline length and refreshing the game before folks reach the end and walk away. Generally much easier to keep an existing customer then win one back that has left the fold. Probably one of the reasons for the 10 year run of 5e2014 was the continuing release of online stuff for the WOTC VTT product line at a time when on line play is what a lot of folks wanted.
 

Making D&D a "lifestyle brand" where people who were formerly active players still pick up occasional products like quick pick up and play video games, or simple boardgames they can play with their kids, or licensed, branded merch (like the sneakers and collectibles and such) also would seem like a way to retain customers longer-term. Even after they're no longer choosing to invest the kind of time and energy that we active players do.
 

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