D&D General DPR Calculations Wut?

[FrogReaver]

Of course I can figure out average damage per round (1 attack, 1d6+2, average 5.5).

But I see people with equations like : 65% chance to hit.

Where's that coming from? I feel like there are some assumptions I am missing. The % to hit would come from the AC of the target right?

Spell out DPR and explain it for me as a process, like I was in high school. (I do have a degree but somethings not clicking)

I think others have spelled out the basics.

DPR gets complex when factoring in crits, once per turn abilities, per rest abilities, bonus action competing abilities, abilities that buff you for repeatedly targeting the same enemy, example: vex.

It’s always accuracy weighted damage.

To handle other abilities additional assumptions need to be made.

 

[FrogReaver]

When people use DPR they want a more generalizable metric. Obviously every specific monster is different, but typically (not always) the DPR signal is going to be directional to what you see in a large swath of play situations. Maybe even most (though every table can be a bit different).

 

[Clint_L]

Okay, the 65% assumption makes sense. In your opinions, is that already with prof and attributes? So things like fighting styles or magical weapons not included.

I want to point out that that formulation was pre-weapon mastery. In my experience, the typical chance to hit is now probably more like 75% for martial classes (excluding monks...except that almost all monks now take the grapple feat, so same-same).

 

[SkidAce]

I want to point out that that formulation was pre-weapon mastery. In my experience, the typical chance to hit is now probably more like 75% for martial classes (excluding monks...except that almost all monks now take the grapple feat, so same-same).

Still with 2014, weapon masteries give pluses to hit?

 

[FrogReaver]

It's an assumption based on average armor classes and assumed starting primary stat numbers. It's also white room theory crafting, since it can't take into account all the variables like creature abilities, battlefield situations, spells, etc. that end up being used in combats.

Normally you would do that kind of stuff in a separate layer.

Base layer:
Normal DPR Is X.
Situation Specific DPR is Y.

Additional later:
Try to estimate the frequency of each DPR case and do a weighted average.

 

[Zardnaar]

Still with 2014, weapon masteries give pluses to hit?

Vex grants advantage to hit on follow up attacks.
Knocking prone grants advantage on melee attacks with 5'.

Advantage is easier to get in 5.5.

I've seen a sword and trident type shield master feat plus topple.

Prone prone prone, action surge prone.
Champion crits 19-20 with advantage. Elf with elven accuracy using a vicious weapon.

Cleric walks on with spirit guardians. Basically once they stand up opponents can move 5 feet. And their hit points are evaporating.

 

[FrogReaver]

Still with 2014, weapon masteries give pluses to hit?

GWM and Sharpshooter do the -5/+10 for 2014.

The benefit there compared to not using them greatly depended on target AC, so what I would do for those is make a chart of DPR vs various AC values. Then compare the sharpshooter -5/+10 to the version without. Some AC would be higher some lower. If comparing another character to this one I would look at the range and magnitude of each entry, because a single AC point with that feat could be very misleading.

Similar process can also tell you when you should use that option vs not once you hone in on target ac.

Edit: I think I misread the question, but might still be valuable to see how things like that are handled in practice.

 

[SkidAce]

Vex grants advantage to hit on follow up attacks.
Knocking prone grants advantage on melee attacks with 5'.

Ahh, and advantage is close to equivalent to +5 to hit

 

[FrogReaver]

I guess it’s also worth mentioning that DPR at its heart is expected value from probability and statistics.

 

[Sacrosanct]

I inherently have a bias against DPR calculations because as an analyst by career, I have an aversion to bad data metrics; garbage in, garbage out as they say. With DPR there is so much guesswork and assumptions in there, it makes me cringe a bit. Especially when I see folks get so adamant about relying on it.

That all being said, I think there is value there, and I think the folks that like calculating it are doing about as good as a person could do with so many variables. I don't begrudge that. I just think you should consider it, it is important, but not let it make the decisions for you.

It's one of the reasons I don't get hyper focused as a designer on balance, and don't think one should be. All that white room theory crafting goes out the window when the players start playing and doing different things. Spending too much time chasing balance leads down a rabbit hole that won't bring you a lot of value.