My advice having playing both: if they want to shift it will be because of the increased character options and increased danger of combats. Most other things are basically the same.
I have run two session of Age of Ashes and three 2e PFS adventures.
There were several aspects of the game that surprised me in both good and bad ways:
I was very skeptical of Secret Checks before I ran my first game. It turns out they are one of my favorite additions. They worked great. It...
. . . well actually, what it said was that D&D the brand sold more in 2014 than 2013. Given that they sold (basically) nothing in 2013 that wasn't saying much. In fact, if you were cynical you might interpret the paucity of the information as attempt to convey a false impression of success while...
I suspect that the goal is just to make sure that the fans aren't vocally unhappy -- as they mostly were with 4e. They just need to make sure the fans have positive association with the brand. Whether the game is actively played is a secondary issue because they are no longer looking to make...
Correct. But a more likely scenario is video game licensing. The amount that Hasbro can make with video game licensing on even a middling success makes the book sales trivial.
The difference between 4e and 5e is that this time Hasbro has deciding not to sink significant costs into the game...
I think you have it backwards. The brand remains very very valuable. The game might (or might not) become a vestigial artifact but will continue on to support the brand.
I expect to see a trickle. Based on staffing and their light schedule, it seems that "D&D: the game" is on maintenance mode to support "D&D: the brand." They aren't trying to make money with "D&D: the game", just not lose it. The goal is to support the value of the license.
If Hasbro is happy it is because they carefully kept costs down and probably had modest expectations. The goal of this edition is just to have something published to support licensed products, not to be the top selling RPG.
In listening to podcasts with Lisa Stevens I was under the impression that the D&D brand still brings in a significant number of new players every month -- and that is with virtually no new products or promotion. Its a brand with significant cultural relevance so much so that it has become...
I agree with everything in your post except this one point. I suspect that the marketing value of the "D&D" name is still considerable despite Hasbro's many missteps. I hope that in the event that 5e does as well as 4e, Paizo will be in a position to buy it. Lets keep our fingers crossed.