I saw someone use Gen Con as a data point that Avatar Legends actually is quite popular as a rpg that gets played.
There are 137 events listed under Avatar Legends.
130 of them are demos and/or sessions being sponsored directly by Magpie.
My only perspective here is that of a player of these games.... so my only metric for success is player base.
Has the game created a player base of a size that demonstrably makes it easier to find people to play with.
Like... right now...I can find more people who play Earthdawn 4th edition...
It’s a terrible time for 13th Age to come out given the release of Daggerheart and Draw Steel.
And Cosmere rpg digital this summer too.
And don’t forget DC 20 this fall.
Like, literally, if I were them I would wait for next year. 13th Age 2e is going to get buried.
I have like... 3 different rpg groups because each has their preferences that have been strongly stated before.
My long-time friend group hates anything non-sim or non-combat oriented. So I can't run anything like PbtA or Blades in the Dark or Daggerheart because all that is cringe for them and...
The vast majority of the millions of people who have taken D&D up in the past ten years have probably never read another rpg.
I'll put hard cash on that claim.
As for the D&D audience in general over the decades? Sure, I believe they have.
And one more thing... I've said this elsewhere, too... being able to bank Hope and Fear -- not necessarily having to deal with the good and bad stuff right there and then with every roll -- is game changing.
Genesys -- which has no banking mechanism -- was fun but it was also exhausting for me.
My own nerd discussion group is tripping up over the Hope/Fear thing. "Not everything players roll for has hope or fear built in!" I'm like... right. Hope and Fear aren't necessarily diegetic here. It just comes down to you rolling with a 'yes and' or a 'yes but' or 'no and' 'no but'. Hope and...
That’s fine, it’s a game for your recreation not a work assignment.
Maybe give it a shot down the road or try it as a player and not as a GM.
Either way, it makes for excellent reading in a ‘rpgs as narrative’ kind of way and isn’t a waste of your time.
Like I said originally, it's not good data science here. I'll also say, I think a break down of games at Gen Con do tend to represent the general market, too.
And, yea,'tend' there is carrying a lot of weight.