What Does a "Successful" RPG Look Like?

I know this is sort of the thing I focus on but I think having an open license and open reference document that other creators can build off of after you're dead and gone is one way to make something more likely to be successful long-term.
 

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#2 would disqualify Pathfinder and Call of Cthulhu from being successful in my neck of the woods, and you'd think people are still only playing 3E D&D.
So my library actually has a good amount of Pathfinder, but so too does my local used bookstore - what they both don't have are D&D materials. I actually think it's kind of a function of some folks wanting to purge stuff from their collections and this is where they're ending up.
 



Not at all! My goal was to bring up the conversation because I knew there were people out there who benchmark every RPG against D&D -- which is an impossible benchmark to make. So now we get to recognize the fallacy of that idea and find out what actually makes a successful RPG.

Alphastream did a fantastic deep dive into D&D using Bookscan and has since said that since changing distributers, bookscan data is a poor indicator of WOTC's sales.

If you disagree, please show me complete D&D 2024 sales data.
IME business success is always going to be measured by sales and profits. Paizo actually topped WotC by making Pathfinder the #1 selling ttrpg in spring 2011, fall 2012, spring 2013, fall 2013, and summer 2014. So beating D&D is anything but impossible. You just have to make a game people want to play more than D&D. If Paizo can do it, almost anyone can(y)
 


  • Does it show up on (and stay on) various online "looking for players" / "looking for games" sites?,
  • Can I see games played using this system at conventions?
  • Does the publisher continue to publish material for it?,
  • Are other publishers publishing material for it?,
  • Is there a healthy community of GMs and creators regularly talking about it somewhere?,
These five things are the main criteria to me.
 

I have three metrics for success.

Commercially: Did it make break even?

Design wise: Can I see myself running or playing this over using Fate, GURPS, D&D 5e, or the nearest existing PbtA game?

Socially: Three years after release is anyone in my extended gaming network running or even talking about it?
 



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