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That is bull crap, All games come around because the companies finances demand it.

I think the only point I disagree with is #4 other than 2 recent exceptions that kind of cheated (Pathfinder and 5e*) new system adoption often takes quite awhile, so growth is always what you are looking for. Well that and that PF didn't decline it grew slower than the site. If there were...

They actually grew 20% faster than the platform, well it was exploding. That is actually hard to do. Thus why PF1 grew as well, but shrunk percentage wise.

ICV2 is not the best of course, but the release of the new CRB moved them back into the number 2 spot, where they have been since. #21 on the Amazon link is the CRB, and everything ahead of it is 5e, that would make it the 2nd best selling game. Like I said earlier it is hard to tell right...

According to ICV2 and Amazon, yes.

If you look at the full report PF2 actually grew 199% over last quarter (So almost doubled the number of games on Roll20). So it is a bit hard to compare quarter to quarter when there is so much exponential growth because of the Pandemic.

It is hard to tell with what we have. The actuality was PF1 grew over the quarter, but just not as much as other things did. Percentages are misleading that way.

Correct basically doubled now of course Pandemic so that skews the numbers a bit obviously.

https://blog.roll20.net/

They did announce the new edition 16 months in advance, that is a lot more lead up time then you would get from most publishers. EDIT: And it wasn't that WotC did a new edition that was the issue, it was the GSL wasn't ready and they wouldn't tell Paizo what they were going to be able to do...

In the full Orr Report on Roll20 they specifically state the 199% growth for PF2 in case anyone missed where I got that from. The 181% growth of Roll20 itself is also in there.

Interesting 199% growth for PF2 on Roll20 for the last quarter, a bit ahead of the 181% growth Roll20 had. Not sure it is move the Needle growth like @BryonD is looking for but definitely some growth :D As with all the Pandemic news hard to say what that really means though.

For the time I think 3e was a great game, but I had to evangelize it to a certain subset of 2e players. And all the same groups I mentioned earlier were there. There was a group of 2e players that 3e was a non starter for. For whatever reason. Same for 1e, 4e, PF1, etc. There is always that...

There was also a huge push back to 3e at first. Which I really think was more the we fear change crowd and had way more to do with this is different I don't like it.

Actually 5e and PF in my experience are the exception more than the rule, PF because it came with a complete ruleset in 3.5. 5e because D&D was basically dead for years before it's release. If I am recalling correctly 2nd and 3rd editions of D&D had much slower adoption rates, although 2nd was...

So I was looking at a bunch of daily sales estimators. 3795 is 16 copies a day, 10000 is about 13 copies a day. 45 is 31 or 32 copies a day and 300 is 24 or 25 copies. So really the rankings mean sales aren't changing that much each day. So Amazon's sales rankings mean even less than I thought. :D

One thing I do find interesting is that first month drop of either never played or played in didn't like was about 25% so does that mean PF2 is keeping 75% of people that try it. That seems like a stretch but that does give me an idea of what the approximate size of the we don't like it group...

The tricky part with the monthly numbers is with release there are always a bunch of games that get created and never run, I was in a couple. :D So that month I always consider skewed. But I don't disagree with your numbers after that. So let's take your 15% as the converters group, then we have...

I hate not having good numbers. :D I mean even they latest Fantasy Ground report can be read two ways. 9 months in PF1 still has more games than PF2, or 9 months in PF2 has almost a 50% conversion rate, without a player focused rulebook line expansion. Both are right but in a year that will be...

For this one ByronD is referring to the ICV2 rankings for the quarter that the playtest was announced.