Pathfinder 2E Release Day Second Edition Amazon Sales Rank

[BryonD]

Why invest money to end up close to where you started?

 

[darjr]

Because where they started was possibly going to lead them to insolvency? Soon?
Instead they received a bump in sales (I think) that quite possibly gave them time to readjust so they could survive at that level? (Maybe).

Also where they started vs where they may be now is not completely equivalent. For instance the makeup of the company could be very different then it was.

 

[darjr]

In other words where they were then would NOT have lead them to where they are now without that investment. And that investment might have caught on better.

Maybe.

 

[prosfilaes]

What is your alternative assumption? You say that the rest of the thread makes it clear that "they are not" analogous. But I'm not sure that the basic argument about difference in the size of the fanbase makes any difference to the buying behaviors of those fanbases.

For example, you said that you were not buying from amazon because you want to support your local gamestore and you are waiting. Are you suggesting that there is a widespread presence of Paizo shoppers (you did not specify what product you ordered) who are deeply loyal to their local game store and a notable lack of the same amongst 5E fans? And are you suggesting that not only is that true, but the scale of this is such that it can drive a visible divergence in Amazon data? I find the first point extremely unlikely. The second point can't happen without the first, and even if we just assume it for the sake of argument, the second point still seems beyond reason.

Do you have another theory that simply has not been explained yet?

A visible divergence in Amazon data means what? If all you have is product positions, it's possible both D&D and Pathfinder had identical changes in sales, with other products causing the different changes in positions. The second point doesn't necessarily mean anything.

Secondly, are you claiming that buyers of a product sold in Target and shown on Stranger Things has the same loyalty to game stores as buyers of a product known to mainly people who frequent game stores? Quantitative differences induce qualitative differences; niche products sell in different ways than mainstream ones.

Not to mention that sales trends have been different in the two products, and that Paizo's releases over the last month haven't included major volumes. Of all the lines, the Pathfinder Adventure Path line seems likely to be the most subscriber bound, so the fact they didn't release any books in the other lines wouldn't help.

Lastly, Paizo releases in PDF and most of their rules material is posted online for free. At a point when most physical gaming is shutting down, naturally physical sales of D&D are going to go on higher than Pathfinder sales.

 

[S'mon]

In my opinion; The number of "new" gamers that D&D is actually bringing into the Non-D&D/d20 side of the rpg hobby, is barely registering.

IME the newbies are pretty unaware of any game but 5e D&D, but many are not averse to trying out other games if introduced to them - eg I got several newbies to play and enjoy Mini Six RPG, based on the WEG D6 System.

 

[S'mon]

Re Paizo - obviously Lisa Stevens is a highly competent businesswoman. The big Paizo success was securing the Dragon magazine subscription list and converting Dungeon/Dragon production over to Pathfinder AP production. They are also good at glossy presentation (a bit like Modiphius) and they were very wise with PF to stick with the popular 3e D&D d20 rules.

On the downside, I'm not sure Paizo leadership fully appreciate how weak their rules design chops are compared to their marketing, periodical-production, world-design and art-direction abilities. I think there was a temptation for them to think PF1's popularity was due to something more than it being a well-presented 3e retro-clone. Looking from the outside, the obvious market opportunity ca 2016-2017 was in becoming the dominant 3PP producer of 5e D&D material, not in creating a new competing game system. Some tweaks to make 5e more 3e-like - more magic items, easier item purchase/crafting, more powerful spellcasting options - and Golarion-set 5e adventures seems to me to be the obvious alternative to continuing with PF1e.

 

[dave2008]

It is only the announcement of PF2E that triggered the crash of PF.

I would add your "I claim that..." statement to this. We don't know that the PF2 announcement triggered the crash. Do we even know if there was a crash?

 

[Hussar]

Why let things like facts get in the way of a good theory? No matter how many "facts" you might point to, it's not going to matter.

 

[JFranklin3000]

I would add your "I claim that..." statement to this. We don't know that the PF2 announcement triggered the crash. Do we even know if there was a crash?

For this one ByronD is referring to the ICV2 rankings for the quarter that the playtest was announced.

 

[BryonD]

In other words where they were then would NOT have lead them to where they are now without that investment. And that investment might have caught on better.

Maybe.

So are you saying they hoped to do better, but that the worst case scenario (which is not a done deal yet) is still better long term?
I can absolutely agree that they thought the gamble was worthwhile.
But I don't think there are (or will be) seeing the results that they wanted.