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I made a thing: https://cdawson.shinyapps.io/dnd5e-martial-dpr/ I was inspired by the discussion with @Elfcrusher and @Fenris-77 the other day about D&D data visualization, so I thought I'd use it as an opportunity to figure out how to make an interactive tool... and got a little carried away...

Just to make things even more complicated, sometimes what you care about isn't how the success chance differs, but rather something like how many rolls it takes to get a failure (or a success). Take AC, for example. You might think based on the preceding discussion that imposing disadvantage...

Yeah, that was the initial point I made in response to Fenris saying he had thought about advantage/disadvantage as being +/- 5. But that isn't Ovinomancer's complaint; his complaint seems to be that likening (dis)advantage to a modifier even at a fixed DC is heresy ("Advantage/disadvantage is...

The issue isn't (just) that bell curves are too complicated, the issue is that looking at the curve (which isn't even bell-shaped if we're talking about advantage/disadvantage) is irrelevant if you are just going to compare to a threshold. All that matters is the probability of hitting the...

Without intending to directly reply to Ovinomancer because I don't want to get sucked in to that again, but for the benefit of anyone else reading this thread, the point about advantage/disadvantage being "like" +5/-5 is that when your roll is converted to a binary outcome (success vs failure)...

Oh god, not this again.

Yeah, 10.5 is the average on a d20, but because meeting the DC counts as a success, an adjusted DC (actual DC minus modifier) of 11 gives you exactly 50:50 odds of success (whereas needing a 10 is 55:45)

Yup, red is the number of checks til the first level of exhaustion. And yeah, DC has a bigger impact, since it affects all rolls, whereas fatigue penalty only starts to matter after the first failure (and going from 0 to 1 level of fatigue is the longest segment since the rolls are easiest then)

Here it is broken down by castings to first exhaustion, and castings if you start with one level of exhaustion.

I mean, needing a 10.5 to succeed means you need an 11, since you can't roll a fractional amount on the die. The impact of advantage/disadvantage peaks when the base success chance is 50%.

Haha... R is a programming language, designed with statistics in mind. Here's DC 9 with -2 for each level of fatigue:

Advantage/disadvantage is equal to +5/-5 when you need a nat 11 or better to succeed. For other DCs it's less than that.

I'm using R, with the ggplot2 package for the plotting

Ok, having nat 1s add fatigue, and having exhaustion always reset fatigue, here's what it looks like. It's shifted down a little, but the mean is still about 18. Here's what it looks like changing the check DC to 8 (but leaving the effect of fatigue at -1 per): Here's making fatigue...

I think though that you probably intended for fatigue to be added on a nat 1 if you pass the exhaustion check? It's not what you wrote and so not what I implemented, but if so the number of casts will be a bit lower. Also unsure if gaining exhaustion via a failed CON save resets fatigue, or if...

Not to preempt @Elfcrusher, but is this something like what you're looking for? I figure two people independently doing a calculation is a good way to verify that it's done correctly (and that the same algorithm is used).

Is the idea that a nat 1 followed by failing the save, as modified by the previous number of failures, is the only stopping condition?

I would definitely go with a full caster of some kind, but with a small party, survivability is more important since you don't have as much frontline protection. If looking to stay single-classed, cleric is a natural choice... Not sure if you are still considering cleric -- it's listed in the OP...

Sure, but by 11th you'll have your 8th level ASI, so you can take EA then. I agree with your last point; SG being the optimal tactic so often might get old; that said War Caster is probably still better than EA even if you only ever use Shadow Blade. Depends how often you're getting hit, but...

Re: not having needed War Caster, keep in mind that you don't have Spirit Guardians yet, and when you get it, keeping up your concentration is going to do more damage most of the time than any attacking you do. Elven Accuracy does also boost your DC and give you another spell preparation, but on...