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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Well, yes, that's the fundamental question in the "math is broken" argument. See http://www.enworld.org/forum/d-d-4th-edition-rules/266962-math-glitch-explanation-pointer.html for a typical thread arguing the two sides. Some people believe (vigorously) that the disparity in to-hit/AC (and only...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Agreed. I would agree with you if you had said this back at level 1. :o As it is, I don't want to throw away the work I've done. I'm open to swapping out a few powers or items, but I don't want to start over with a whole new build. That said, Ragnarok is a dwarf hammer & shield weapon talent...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    I made the Soldier's encounter power recharge on a 5 or 6 as Keterys suggested. It didn't change the overall trend, but it did reduce survivability a bit. This is versus level +4, 2, 3, 1, 2. Level 1 Ragnarok vs. Soldier: 1.4% +/- 0.7% survival (5.8 rounds) Level 2 Ragnarok vs. Soldier: 5.9%...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Eventually, but not until the one-on-one fight is done through level 30. I think I want to avoid making the monsters to complex for now. For one, that takes away time from getting the rest of the sim working; and for two, the purpose of this first experiment is to test the "math is broken"...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 12 Ragnarok had 100% survivability again at this level, so I decided to bump up the monsters to level +4, 1, 3, 1, and 2. He had 100% survivability again. Now they're at +4, 2, 3, 1, and 2, and he has a mere 99.8% survivability (+/- 0.3%). Sheesh. I'm seeing a math problem, for...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Good point. That was a rules misinterpretation... I'll fix it for level 12.
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 11 A new tier, and with it, a new build. As we've previously discussed, I've replaced Ragnarok's Battlerager Vigor class feature with One-Handed Weapon Talent in order to better represent the pre-expertise math. Not that it mattered. At this level, Ragnarok has 100.0%...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    I've switched Ragnarok from a Battlerager Vigor build to a One-Handed Weapon Talent build. This made Dwarf Stoneblood illegal (it requires Battlerager Vigor), so I replaced DS with Improved Vigor. Alternatives welcome. Here's a level-by-level comparison of the changes. The left-hand column is...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    I understood that part. :) What I meant was, any other changes to the build? Feats and so forth? At-wills?
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    I want to finish the current build (all the way to 30) before starting a brand new one. After that, assuming I'm not sick of it by then, I was planning on adding support for a full 5-on-5 simulation, including support for movement.
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    I'm happy to switch to a Guardian fighter, if people think it's more representative of the pre-Expertise math. I'd love for the sim to run faster, too, and reducing combat length is the easiest way to do that. I want to avoid having to go back and code a lot of new powers, though. If that's the...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Okay, the level 10 post was the last of the backlog I accumulated during my vacation. I'm working on level 11 now.
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 10 As usual for an even-numbered level, the stat improvements added a lot to survivability. After that, the magic item, feat, and power didn't seem to add much. It's hard to tell for certain, though, because survivability is so high. This brings us to the end of the heroic tier...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 9 [Note: I caught and fixed the error in crit damage while coding level 9.] Ragnarok continues to be completely unstoppable. Before leveling up at all, Ragnarok (at level 8) had a 94.3% survivability vs. level 9 challenges. Such a high survivability rate makes it difficult to...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 8 dupe
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 8 [Note: There's an error in the crit damage at this level--it should be 2d12, and it's 1d12. I caught the error and corrected it while coding level 9. The effect of this error on survivability was about half a percent. See the level 9 report for fixed level-by-level results.]...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 7 [Note: There's an error in the crit damage at this level--it should be 2d12, and it's 1d12. I caught the error and corrected it while coding level 9. The effect of this error on survivability was about half a percent. See the level 9 report for fixed level-by-level results.]...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    I just doublechecked and it's in the example combat I looked at. Where did you see this? No, that's not in there. It's a good idea, even though it's unlikely to be untriggered that long. I'll add that to the AI.
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 6 I finished level 6 while on vacation, too. Huge improvements in survivability at this level, mostly due to the massive increase in AC--it went from 22 to 26, thanks to the combination of level 6, plate proficiency, and new +2 armor. To-hit hasn't increased correspondingly...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 5 Believe it or not, I haven't given up yet. I've just been on vacation. Actually, I'm writing this while on vacation, but I have no Internet access, so you'll see this when I get back. So... level 5. Nothing particularly exciting at this level--everything contributed fairly...
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