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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 8 dupe
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 8 [Note: There's an error in the crit damage at this level--it should be 2d12, and it's 1d12. I caught the error and corrected it while coding level 9. The effect of this error on survivability was about half a percent. See the level 9 report for fixed level-by-level results.]...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 7 [Note: There's an error in the crit damage at this level--it should be 2d12, and it's 1d12. I caught the error and corrected it while coding level 9. The effect of this error on survivability was about half a percent. See the level 9 report for fixed level-by-level results.]...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    I just doublechecked and it's in the example combat I looked at. Where did you see this? No, that's not in there. It's a good idea, even though it's unlikely to be untriggered that long. I'll add that to the AI.
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 6 I finished level 6 while on vacation, too. Huge improvements in survivability at this level, mostly due to the massive increase in AC--it went from 22 to 26, thanks to the combination of level 6, plate proficiency, and new +2 armor. To-hit hasn't increased correspondingly...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 5 Believe it or not, I haven't given up yet. I've just been on vacation. Actually, I'm writing this while on vacation, but I have no Internet access, so you'll see this when I get back. So... level 5. Nothing particularly exciting at this level--everything contributed fairly...
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    Why I am giving up on Scales of War

    My group is finishing up the heroic tier now (just two sessions left, by my estimation) and I'm pondering this very question. Do I want to stop and start over with WotBS, which looks awesome and a lot deeper, or do I want to stick with it? It's taken us about 14 months to get through the heroic...
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    Why did you subscribe?

    I just subscribed, and it was because of WotBS and other premium content. Mostly WotBS. I don't have time to build my own modules, so good adventures, particularly adventure paths, are key for me. On the other hand, I'm already a DDI subscriber, and running Scales of War, so community support...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Quick question about Ragnarok's 5th level Daily, Rain of Steel. It looks like the Iron Armbands don't apply to this power because it isn't a melee attack (it's 'Personal'). Any disagreement with this ruling? For the AI on this power, I was thinking of marking all Stance powers as :do_not_use...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    About the AI Okay, about the AI, and why it's so stupid. Short version: Computers are stupid. :D (Slightly longer version: ...and I'm not an AI programmer.) Cheekiness aside, the big challenge here is creating an AI that doesn't have to be rewritten for every character and every level...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    I was looking ahead at upcoming magic items when I realized that some of them don't come from the first year. I want to limit the selection for this first pass so we're evaluating the pre-Expertise math. Anybody care to suggest some replacements? There may be other magic items that don't fit as...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 4 Ragnarok's level 4 build is ready. The sim now has proper support for the idea of a "damage roll bonus"--before, it would add the bonus whenever any set of dice were rolled, which didn't mesh so well with crits. I've also put in the new +3 / +0 / +2 / +0 / +1 mix of challenge...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    I like the idea of smoothing out the discontinuities. Done. I used your suggestion of level+3, level+0, level+2, level+0, and level+1 opponents for now, but that's easy to change if we want. Here are the level-by-level results: Level 1 Ragnarok vs. Soldier: 45.0% +/- 3.1% survival (5.8 rounds)...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Oops, you're right. I wasn't adding in the +1/2 level bonus to constitution. This is a good example of why the char sheets and example combats need review, even with all the tests I have in the sim. I actually did have a test covering the soldier's HP progression, and that test passes--but I...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 3 Level 3 was easy to do, since it didn't introduce any major new concepts that I had to add to the sim. I did add a tweak to the AI that managed to turn off Second Wind (and Boundless Endurance, which won't fire until Second Wind has been used). Oops. That's why I put the combat...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Yeah, the one-on-one aspect of the sim makes the raw survivability numbers suspect. UngeheuerLich makes a good point about the battlerager's stickiness, too, which means that we can't really compare survivability between builds, either. (As an extreme example, a wizard would probably have lousy...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 2 Yep, I'm still around. I've finished programming in Ragnarok's level 2 abilities. Here's the survivability scores: Ragnarok at level 1 (vs. level 1 soldier): 91.7% +/- 1.7% Ragnarok with level 2 stats but no new abilities (vs. level 2 soldier): 94.7% +/- 1.4% Adding the...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Ragnarok Level 1 Ragnarok's level 1 build is done. Since my last post, I've added support for magic weapons, multiple at-wills, and arbitrary conditions. The magic item (a Vicious Warhammer +1) bumped survivability up to 95% (from 90%), but then Brash Strike actually dropped survivability back...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    True. For this first pass, I'm just going to use the DMG p.184 guidelines to make a level-equivalent soldier. That is, after all, the math everyone's complaining about. Once the first pass is done, we can decide how to make the sim more realistic, whether that's a full five-PC party, real...
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    Monte Carlo versus "The Math"

    Introducing Ragnarok The basic build for Ragnarok is done. This isn't the full level 1 build, but rather the same base level that the other dwarves got. (The second at-will power and the magic item are missing.) This allows us to do an apples-to-apples comparison between Ragnarok and the other...
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