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I agree but yhink think that In 5e it's generally not so much of a case where the party hit an encounter so hard that they had to nova. Usually IME it's more of a case that the group is built around the concept of Nova first last and always because too many classes are designed to follow that...

No I am reading it, we disagree on a fundamental issue though. If one were to present a curve showing average games they would find a large number of the ones you describe as fairly typical games well into the upper fraction of that curve's upper fraction. The fact that your group felt the...

You are ignoring the point. When you level up every session or yso sometimes more than one level it's going to play out with an experience closer to how a normal group showing up to play a one shot of a particular dungeon than it would if that group was playing through with normal progression.

It doesn't matter if it's a one shot or not you play through a full hc adventure going 1-20 in a couple months but approach each session like a bunch of one shots because the end result is still going to be an experience that is very far outside the norm that is unlikely to provide much value...

The point I made about d&d online was not a GM simply saying that "you can't buy standard phb adventuring gear", it was about the GM providing the gold to buy dozens of consumable items healing potions and then shrugging it off when players decide to do so. I think that that very much leads...

That sounds more like ddo than the ttrpg version of d&d where a real flesh & blood human takes the role of gm.your description of what you regularly present as big standard examples of gameplay is so incredibly unique im wondering if you happen to play in a group with 29-39 regular AI users?

Conspiracy theories? I reading a lot of implied and hypothetical reasons why the data represented in the math could be something not representative of the obvious result rather being used for any assumptions. What I'm not reading is any reason supporting such a claim about the obvious math...

The link was included that link because it breaks down the math in a very obvious and hard to deny way that very much looks like it would be "concrete". I have absolutely no idea what you are trying to say there to the point that it almost looks like you may trying to say "I reject that math...

That's what makes it such an interesting thing to speculate about. It's role as a companion book opens a lot of possibilities when it comes to things like leveling/chargen rules & creature support for the setting itself. Rising was a great setting book, but the PC chargen rule & creature...

I'm not going to do any math on verifying this through the cobwebs but It's been a long time since I remember anyone feeling the need to explain it beyond it being a solid rule of thumb with 5e that generally works out pretty close in actual play, but I think that it was some combination of...

Ynobody can inadvertently try so hard to avoid answering the simple question of how you selected the SIX "% chance" values by mistake. There are almost certainly additional problems with how you generated the damage values from those SIX values as well but you have presented a wall of...

Trouble is all the other questionable numbers in the %chance columns including the green "regular" one that would not involve (dis)advantage. Figuring out your assumptions is important because the math doesn't align logically. For example: a 65% chance of a 65% chance is 42%, you have a 42%...

I don't think that it's as difficult as some folks make it out to be. Dndshorts did a great video about (4e) dark sun today. He left out the cleansing wars and the important associated bits that explain why the people of athas can't just evolve their civilization to recover from that collapse...

What is there to be "confused" about? 65% gets thrown around regularly because it's a good rough estimate for 5e's expected hit rate, it's also a number not found anywhere on your excel snippet where it could be used to extrapolate the math used for what other entities are representing. Your "%...

In that case it raises questions like what you are trying to model and the details of any non-posterior sourced logic that went into the math involved in deciding upon numbers for the "% chance". Even beyond that you have entries like the first row that seem to either involve a bad rounddown...

It looks like you are trying to map some of the percentages noted in post76. It's good that you don't appear to have made the common statistical mistake of multiplying the average damage across a statistically significant number of attacks (IoW hundreds) With that said, post 76 was not...

I suspect that the 65%hitrate in 5e was on some level helped along by bad math and hst came from approaching the attack chain as a thing where later attacks depended on the previous one succeeding rather than each attack being an isolated 65%. If that were the case iit would be a maybe...

Warlock (and Monk) would absolutely be even more of a problem without being converted back to fractional long rest based or taking a page from how spell slot gain progression rate keeps slowing down from mid/late tier2+. Without such a rework, that kind of recovery would be borked as hell by...

That's not how movement works, it's done 5feet at a time with a 5 foot grid because the moving creature can't always know if something will cause a problem even if it's often (but not always) knowable before moving. Did you not take geometry yet? 90 degrees is a right angle on the grid like...