WayneLigon
Adventurer
My reasons:
When trying to second-guess the Academy instead of making my own picks, I usually fall back on three criteria:
1. Who hasn't gotten something for awhile
2. Is it something I saw? If so, it probably will not win.
3. Is it something I didn't see but is popular nonetheless? 50/50 chance, there. The Academy hates popular, for the most part, but will award if there are other extenuating factors. (Braveheart and Gladiator won: I saw them AND they were popular, which is normally the kiss of death, BUT they were also 'historical', which recalls 'Ben Hur' which meant they had a chance).
Since the various actor awards didn't mention what picture they were in, I had to just take a complete guess on those catagories, more based on 'who is 'due' for an award' than anything else.
Ice Age and Mike's New Car: Hollywood seems to really like Pixar, almost as much as I do. They might surprise me and go for Stallion; I haven't seen it yet, so I can't comment. TP died at the starting gate for some reason, so I doubt it can win.
GoNY: They might decide to reward Scorcese, but probably not. It's a long bomb that took, like, three years to get here.
LOTR for visual, sound and SFX (aka, the 'who cares' awards): they might throw it a bone this year again, thought now that I think about it, they'll give Sound to Chicago.
Chicago: It's recent, it's done well, and it's a musical. The old fogies in the Academy will vote for it on that last basis.
Danang: I've heard of some of the others, esp. 'Bowling'. No film in this catagory that I've heard of has ever won, so I go for the unknown.
Foriegn Language: title mentions 'Africa'. 'Hero' can't win because we already gave an award to CTHD in 2000.
Frida: It's up against a SF pic. No brainer. I didn't even remember that Time Machine was even released this year. Was it? I swear I thought it was last year.
Big Fat Greek Wedding: Recent, done well, was released as indie beforehand. This was a big toss up between this and Yu Tu, but Yu Tu was ages ago.
Twin Towers: 'nuff said.
Short film: total guess. When in doubt, go for the French.
I'll guess I get, at best, half right
They could surprise me. They certainly did for about 2 seconds with nominating 'Blame Canada' until I remembered that the South Park movie was one long sharp stick into the MPAA's eye, which had to make everyone happy.
When trying to second-guess the Academy instead of making my own picks, I usually fall back on three criteria:
1. Who hasn't gotten something for awhile
2. Is it something I saw? If so, it probably will not win.
3. Is it something I didn't see but is popular nonetheless? 50/50 chance, there. The Academy hates popular, for the most part, but will award if there are other extenuating factors. (Braveheart and Gladiator won: I saw them AND they were popular, which is normally the kiss of death, BUT they were also 'historical', which recalls 'Ben Hur' which meant they had a chance).
Since the various actor awards didn't mention what picture they were in, I had to just take a complete guess on those catagories, more based on 'who is 'due' for an award' than anything else.
Ice Age and Mike's New Car: Hollywood seems to really like Pixar, almost as much as I do. They might surprise me and go for Stallion; I haven't seen it yet, so I can't comment. TP died at the starting gate for some reason, so I doubt it can win.
GoNY: They might decide to reward Scorcese, but probably not. It's a long bomb that took, like, three years to get here.
LOTR for visual, sound and SFX (aka, the 'who cares' awards): they might throw it a bone this year again, thought now that I think about it, they'll give Sound to Chicago.
Chicago: It's recent, it's done well, and it's a musical. The old fogies in the Academy will vote for it on that last basis.
Danang: I've heard of some of the others, esp. 'Bowling'. No film in this catagory that I've heard of has ever won, so I go for the unknown.
Foriegn Language: title mentions 'Africa'. 'Hero' can't win because we already gave an award to CTHD in 2000.
Frida: It's up against a SF pic. No brainer. I didn't even remember that Time Machine was even released this year. Was it? I swear I thought it was last year.
Big Fat Greek Wedding: Recent, done well, was released as indie beforehand. This was a big toss up between this and Yu Tu, but Yu Tu was ages ago.
Twin Towers: 'nuff said.
Short film: total guess. When in doubt, go for the French.
I'll guess I get, at best, half right
They could surprise me. They certainly did for about 2 seconds with nominating 'Blame Canada' until I remembered that the South Park movie was one long sharp stick into the MPAA's eye, which had to make everyone happy.
