Steel_Wind said:
AoOs are the reason why d20 needs minis. I don't see this changing with any 4th edition release.
To resolve an AoO you need to know the answer to precisely two questions:
(1) Am I close enough to hit them?
(2) What are they doing?
If you can't answer these questions without the use of miniatures, then you can't run combat in ANY system without the use of miniatures.
If you are prepared to fudge or leave flanking and movement, tumbling and AoOs out of it - sure.
This is a classic example of begging the question: Your argument basically boils down to, "If you don't precisely track the position of every character ("use miniatures"), then you need to be prepared to not precisely track the position of every character ("fudge")."
Well, yeah. So what?
In reality, the following gameplay is not abnormal or particularly difficult:
DM: You enter a room twenty feet wide and sixty feet long. Six orcs are playing poker in the center of the room. Roll initiative. <the orcs win> The orcs, seeing you enter, leap to their feet and grab their weapons. What do you do?
Fighter: How far away are the orcs?
DM: About thirty feet.
Fighter: I charge the nearest orc!
DM: Not a problem. <resolves the attack>
Rogue: Is there enough room for me to get around behind the orc the fighter's facing and flank him?
DM: You could easily run through their ranks, but you'd provoke AoOs.
Rogue: Okay, I'll tumble. <rolls a 23> Piece of cake.
DM: Okay, you scamper across the room, roll underneath the poker table, and come up directly behind the orc the fighter's facing off against. But you had to move about thirty feet at half speed, so that's your turn.
Wizard: I lay down a fireball to catch the orcs behind the rogue without hitting him or the fighter.
DM: That sounds fine. What's the Reflex save they need to make?
And so forth.
And, yes, this is all slightly less precise than using miniatures. And yes, it's more difficult to keep these things in your head rather than tracking them using an external record.
But in some cases you've got a group who find it more difficult to immerse themselves in their characters if they're having to manipulate miniatures. Or, due to the physical limitations of the playing area, have difficulty finding the space to use miniatures at all.
And, in other cases, an encounter will be easier and faster to resolve without setting up a battlemat. I, for example, freely mix the two methods in my campaigns depending on the nature of the encounter.