Focus Group
Has it occurred to anyone that these so-called "rumors" are being intentionally encouraged (quietly) by WotC, so that we'll all discuss it in-depth and act as a de facto free focus group for them? At this stage I bet they have no concrete, specific plans for 4E (though I'm sure they have a pretty good idea where it will go), and will be avidly analyzing the response to their leaks in order to determine what the D&D community (read consumer base) wants to see. With GenCon here, this is the most opportune time (for Wizards) for the rumor-mongering to reach frenzied proportions, and give them as much market research/feedback, gratis, as possible.
My prediction is that we'll witness a vast surge in the online discussion in the few weeks after the convention, followed by an announcement from Wizards about a month or two after that (say, sometime in October). If you search Amazon, you'll find that there are D&D 3.5 and Realms product releases scheduled as far out as late winter, early spring 2007, so they're not prepared to "go 4E" before the end of 2007 at the earliest.
Most of the mechanics they would need to incorporate/upgrade are likely already in existing products, so the process of developing the new edition would take minimal time, regardless of the direction it takes. About 6 months for consolidating these into three new core rulebooks (or only one, possibly, if the DM-less rumors, heaven forefend, pan out). Another six months for playtesting, and we'll likely see a Christmas, 2007 release of a handful of 4E products. If not ready by then, probably mid-2008 (just in time for summer vacation
.
All this hasn't slowed my purchases of Wizards products. The direction they have already been taking the game in has brought my purchases to a screeching halt. Despite D&D's basis in wargaming, I'm not a wargamer, and don't care for the explosion of miniatures sets (it's just Magic: TG with plastic toys), not to mention the ever-accelerating proliferation of bizarre and useless new monsters, superfluous prestige classes, endless feats, etc. They've gone so crunch-heavy in their recent releases, and slowed down their fluff-heavy (Forgotten Realms) releases to such a trickle, that not only have I stopped purchasing 3.5, but I've actually sold off some of the stuff I already had out of disgust.
To cut my ramble (somewhat) short, my suspicion is that they will end up trying to capture more (which means younger) new gamers, which is the only way to really boost sales in a major way. This means an incessant treadmill of miniatures products, simpler streamlined rules (maybe DM-less or DM-lite?), and overall a "sexier" profile. I saw a bumper sticker the other day, believe it or not, that said, "I played D&D BEFORE it was cool." Well, so did I, and D&D is not SUPPOSED to be cool
. As soon as it is I'll be moving on to something else, or at least I'll be sticking with the uncool version. I'm certain I am not the only one who will be alienated.
You guys (Wizards) listening?