D&D 4E 4E: Why now?

[Olgar Shiverstone]

Simple question: why now? Even if "now" is actually a year from now, which seems reasonable, why now?

I'm not personally of the opinion that the current D&D incarnation has jumped the shark and deserves to be put down, as 2E certainly did when 3E was announced. And I have a hard time buying that this is a minor essentially backwards compatible upgrade as was 3.5. So why now?

 

[Khairn]

The most obvious and probable answer is that they need to reach sales & profit margins that they have been unable to meet over the last few years. Getting players to pay a monthly subscription fee for the DI, and then new 4E books on top of it will be a healthy shot in the arm. At least until the next sales forecast comes around that doesn't meet shareholder expectations.

 

[Mortellan]

Good timing if you ask me. Time to shake things up. I'll be on the sidelines.

 

[KingCrab]

I predict a lot of people are not going to be interested in paying a monthly subscription fee for the DI. Many will probably buy the books, but many were already buying books (I was). This may not help their sales as much as they predict.

This is an extremely risky maneuver for them. They may end up losing a lot of money.

 

[marune]

I've said it before : It was "impossible" to create an online character generator under current 3.5 rules for DI.

With 4E, they will start only with (simpler hopefully) core rules and add others as the products are released.

 

[Hjorimir]

My guess is that they realize they have a shrinking market and that they need to reverse the trend sooner rather than later. You see, it isn't about keeping the customers they have happy (though I'm sure they will strive to do just that); it's about getting new customers. Making the game more friendly for the new player.

A new edition helps to do that. Couple that with the DI, which I am guessing will make virtual table top gaming accessable with up to date 4E rules and enhancements, and WotC may actually revitalize the dwindling RPG market.

That's my guess.

 

[Korgoth]

I'm only guessing, but perhaps they're trying to adopt a new business model.

 

[Toben the Many]

Right. All roleplaying games ultimately face this dillemma. Once you put out your core book, monster book, and GM's book...you're essentially done. The people playing your game don't need to buy any more materials. So you release supplements and some of your audience will buy those.

But then what? You have to keep coming out with new material in order to even keep your doors open. The current iteration of D&D has definately hit its ceiling. There are now 5 monster manuals, and numerous sourcebooks on each of the classes. There are books on every kind of environment.

They've totally explored their playground. In order to stay afloat, they need to re-edition.

We'll see where this goes.

 

[Toben the Many]

Well, if they rely on the DI, I think they're in big trouble. But I don't think they will be doing that.

 

[lmpjr007]

The most obvious and probable answer is that they need to reach sales & profit margins that they have been unable to meet over the last few years. Getting players to pay a monthly subscription fee for the DI, and then new 4E books on top of it will be a healthy shot in the arm. At least until the next sales forecast comes around that doesn't meet shareholder expectations.

Only problem is, that is a diminishing return model. When you release material based off of something you have done already you don't get more people buying it, you get less. This happened in EVERY business system in the world. and gaming is no different. I am sure the sales for 3.0 where higher than 3.5, as the sales for 3.5 will be higher then 4.0. This is College Business 101 here. They need to get ALL NEW people interested and playing, not the same old fans. Shareholders want to see growth, and how do you get that unless you charge more for the product you sold. Like going from $20 each book for 3.0 to $30 for each book in 3.5 and most likely $40 fo 4.0. The law of diminishing returns.