D&D 4E 4E: Why now?

skeptic said:
I've said it before : It was "impossible" to create an online character generator under current 3.5 rules for DI.

That seems like it would be true.

This is perhaps a worry about 4E - are they going to design the game specifically so that machines can handle it, rather than simply so that it's an awesome game?

Most of the better RPGs I've played in recent years would have been pretty much impossible "automate", because there's so much creativity and judgement involved. Not to say that's the way it has to be, but that's something I've enjoyed. Even Iron Heroes has some stuff that's not really possible to "automate" (stunts and challenges).

Now 3E was always more "automation-friendly" than most RPGs, indeed, it's combat system is finickity enough that it kind of benefits from it (or at least from using minatures and having a lot of charts handy). So will 4E be even more automation-oriented? Would this be a good or bad thing?

As for why now, well, I dunno. It's kind of wierd that I got back into RPGs less than a month before this happened. Maybe old gamers can smell new editions like some people can sense the rain ;)

I suspect it's simply because 3.5E was pretty much "played out" in terms of what they could add to it - I mean, we've had a lot of "summary"-type books of late, no? With the Tome of X series and so on. That's what we saw near the end of 2E, too.
 

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Hjorimir said:
My guess is that they realize they have a shrinking market and that they need to reverse the trend sooner rather than later. You see, it isn't about keeping the customers they have happy (though I'm sure they will strive to do just that); it's about getting new customers. Making the game more friendly for the new player.

A new edition helps to do that. Couple that with the DI, which I am guessing will make virtual table top gaming accessable with up to date 4E rules and enhancements, and WotC may actually revitalize the dwindling RPG market.

That's my guess.

I think that is a pretty good guess.
 

KingCrab said:
I predict a lot of people are not going to be interested in paying a monthly subscription fee for the DI. Many will probably buy the books, but many were already buying books (I was). This may not help their sales as much as they predict.

This is an extremely risky maneuver for them. They may end up losing a lot of money.
If they offer virtual table top support, I'd be happy to pay a reasonable amount. I mean, I have been paying for MMORPGs for some time and I'd rather play D&D online than a MMORPG, so it stands to reason that it would be worth it to me.
 

lmpjr007 said:
Only problem is, that is a diminishing return model. When you release material based off of something you have done already you don't get more people buying it, you get less. This happened in EVERY business system in the world. and gaming is no different. I am sure the sales for 3.0 where higher than 3.5, as the sales for 3.5 will be higher then 4.0. This is College Business 101 here. They need to get ALL NEW people interested and playing, not the same old fans. Shareholders want to see growth, and how do you get that unless you charge more for the product you sold. Like going from $20 each book for 3.0 to $30 for each book in 3.5 and most likely $40 fo 4.0. The law of diminishing returns.

You could very well be right. But it still comes down to profits and sales not being high enough and needing to create a situation where existing players and new players spend a lot more money. Hence the DI and 4E coming out at basically the same time. Each feeding and supporting the other.

The question that I have is that have they calculated the number of customers they are going to lose with 4E? A basic law of marketing is that its always cheaper to keep customers than it is to get new ones. I get the serious impression that WotC is willing to throw away their old customers in their search for new ones.

I can hardly wait to list the questions that WotC will avoid answering now. :D
 

Business Reasons

Core books sell better than supplements. It's also better to upgrade a healthy product line (which 3e seems to be) rather than waiting for it to whither and shrink its market share (like 2e did)

Design Reasons

3e is eight years old, and those eight years have produced more innovation and evolution in RPG design than the twenty years preceding them. When 2e came out, the big design leap from 1e was the point buy system Champions. When 3e came out, the big design leaps were games like Ars Magica, Amber Diceless and Vampire: the Masquerade.

When 3e came out, The Forge and the entire indie gaming scene essentially didn't exist. There was essentially no understanding of, or even an attempt to develop a coherent example of, RPG Theory.

That's not to say 4e should look like Dogs in the Vineyard or Burning Empires. It is, however, to say that 4e should acknowledge and consider the existence of those games, the fact that RPGs have gone in more new directions since its release than in all the years prior to it combined, and the fact that purpose-driven design in an RPG is now both possible and desirable.

In the d20 sphere alone, games like True20, Mutants and Masterminds and Star Wars Saga Edition are leaps and bounds ahead of the current version of D&D in terms of clear and purpose-driven design, speed of play, and prep time.

Significant concerns have been raised by fans of prior editions about the complexity of the rules - the fact that the most successful and critically acclaimed d20-derivatives all pare down those rules in one way or another backs up their concerns, and perhaps even the ways they want to address them. Many of the d20-derived games are closer to what these fans want and at least as satisfying and appealing to new players, and this is a viable area for improvement.

Mike Mearls, who seems likely to be the lead designer on 4e considering his prominence in the design community, has raised other, equally significant concerns, mostly regarding what he calls user interface issues. Those issues really weren't considered in game design circles prior to 3e's release, and were only beginning to be understood between its release and 3.5's. Addressing them is a viable area for improvement.

Finally, D&D faces significant competition as an IP for perhaps the first time in its existence. World of Warcraft is the first Western-produced fantasy gaming IP to eclipse D&D in both its known playerbase and cultural footprint. D&D may or may not be able to compete in both respects - but it obviously isn't doing so now, and there may be ways for it to do so. This, too, is a viable area for improvement.
 

Ruin Explorer said:
That seems like it would be true.

Now 3E was always more "automation-friendly" than most RPGs, indeed, it's combat system is finickity enough that it kind of benefits from it (or at least from using minatures and having a lot of charts handy). So will 4E be even more automation-oriented? Would this be a good or bad thing?

I was only talking about character generation, creating a software to play D&D* would be impossible for various reasons.

*I'm not talking about a virtual tabletop here.
 

Ruin Explorer said:
This is perhaps a worry about 4E - are they going to design the game specifically so that machines can handle it, rather than simply so that it's an awesome game?

My own worry is that they'll try to adopt a "subscription model" where being a D&D player is like being a WoW player... you're getting charaged a monthly fee to your credit card to get the goods.

It remains to be seen, of course.
 

Devyn said:
You could very well be right. But it still comes down to profits and sales not being high enough and needing to create a situation where existing players and new players spend a lot more money. Hence the DI and 4E coming out at basically the same time. Each feeding and supporting the other.

The question that I have is that have they calculated the number of customers they are going to lose with 4E? A basic law of marketing is that its always cheaper to keep customers than it is to get new ones. I get the serious impression that WotC is willing to throw away their old customers in their search for new ones.
This seems like the same thing Games Workshop and the comic book industry have done, price themselves out of their own market making it impossible for new customers to enter. You need new players and young kids to support these products, but tell me where are you going to find a mother with three kids who is going to pay $3 each for a comic book?

Plus best of all at the possible $40 a book prices you are competing with video games. And we all know how that war will end...
 

I think there a number of reasons why they are choosing to release 4th Edition in the near future, other than the cynical "they want to make us buy everything again" stuff that keeps coming up. Product cycles have changed in pretty much every industry; customers generally have far more options to choose from than they did 20 years ago and the access to purchase pretty much anything from anywhere in the world. Nearly every retail product is being refreshed far more frequently than in the past, or they simply get buried and forgotten under newer products.

1. Like 2nd Edition before it, 3.5e has gotten rather bloated and unwieldly, in terms of game mechanics. This is certainly part of a cycle, where expansions beyond the core game keeping adding to it and increasing the complexity until such point as it becomes very intimidating for new players.

2. 3.5e was a relatively minor revision to 3.0, and other companies have advanced the "state of the art" of RPG design in the past 7 years, such as Green Ronin with True20. WOTC's own d20 Modern and Star Wars: Saga Edition also illustrate this. Most of these other games are more streamlined than D&D 3.5, and a common complaint of old-edition grognards is that 3.x has too many rules.

3. Launching 4th Edition in conjunction with the Digital Initiative is the smoothest way to integrate the two. Online/Web support for 3.x was always a bit tacked-on, despite the character generator included with the 3.0 PHB. 4th Edition is going to be built from the ground up with the Digital Initiative in mind. This will hopefully make it a lot easier to get support for supplemental rules than it is now.

4. 3.0 and 3.5 are not perfect, my any stretch of the imagination. I do think that they are a dramatic improvement over 2e, but there are a number of elements of the game that have emerged over the past 7 years as not working particularly well. 3.x/D20 gives them a solid foundation to build on, and with 7 more years of feedback from millions of players, we may see a game that both better serves our needs and is more approachable for new players. (I can dream)
 

Ruin Explorer said:
I suspect it's simply because 3.5E was pretty much "played out" in terms of what they could add to it - I mean, we've had a lot of "summary"-type books of late, no? With the Tome of X series and so on. That's what we saw near the end of 2E, too.
The life run of 3.5 has had the majority of the books I expected from it

PHB x2
DMG x2
MMx4 [3.5, III, IV, V]
7 Complete Player books
Dragon book
A few environment books
A few race books
Horror book
Cthulhiod book
Mini book
Mass battle book
Tome of magic
Spell compendium
Magic item compendium

SO maybe the time is right.
 

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