5+ years of ICV2 Rankings - A retrospective

[jodyjohnson]

Spring 2014
http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/29329.html

1 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
2 Star Wars - Fantasy Flight Games
2 Shadowrun - Catalyst Game Labs
4 Fate Core System - Evil Hat
5 Numenera - Monte Cook Games

Shadowrun makes a strong debut on the chart at #3.
Iron Kingdoms and Dungeons & Dragons drop from the list.
Numenera debuts on the chart at #5.

Summer 2014 prediction now that we know the WotC schedule through the end of the year.

1. Dungeons & Dragons - WotC
2. Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
3. Star Wars - Fantasy Flight Games
4. Numenera - Monte Cook Games
5. Shadowrun - Catalyst Game Labs

I think WotC will get #1 just with their Starter Set and PHB. I expect the Advanced Class Guide will do well, but the subscription model at Paizo.com will undercut a big chunk of their target market for the PHB II equivalent.

Now that WotC is back in the running, I think that the 'Wall of Pathfinder' on the displays will have a negative impact on new player acquisition.

Star Wars is a perenial favorite. Numenera had a strong summer so far. Fate Core will drop off just because of the extra game in the mix. I expect Shadowrun will be off for the Fall report replaced by whatever the next big thing is at Gen Con.

 

[delericho]

Summer 2014 prediction now that we know the WotC schedule through the end of the year.

1. Dungeons & Dragons - WotC
2. Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
3. Star Wars - Fantasy Flight Games
4. Numenera - Monte Cook Games
5. Shadowrun - Catalyst Game Labs

I can believe that.

Now that WotC is back in the running, I think that the 'Wall of Pathfinder' on the displays will have a negative impact on new player acquisition.

I'm not so sure about this. The places with the "Wall of Pathfinder" are likely places where Pathfinder is particularly strong in the existing player base. As such, and since new players are more likely to be joining an existing group than not, they're likely to gravitate to the local game (see also Dancey's "Network Externalities" argument).

What will be interesting is whether 5e is able to displace Pathfinder in those areas, or if D&D has ceded the #1 slot permanently. I don't pretend to have an answer to that one.

 

[M.L. Martin]

I wouldn't be surprised to see 13th Age break into the Top 10 or even #5 with the release of the Bestiary and 13 True Ways.

 

[Tony Vargas]

Qtr 2 2011
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/20743.html

1 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
2 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
3 Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader/Deathwatch - Fantasy Flight Games
4 Dragon Age - Green Ronin Publishing
5 Shadowrun - Catalyst Game Labs

So, here's where Pathfinder finally pulls ahead, only /after/ the switch to Essentials and a much slower pace of publication.

Fall 2012
http://www.icv2.com/articles/markets/25377.html

1 Pathfinder - Paizo Publishing
2 Star Wars - Fantasy Flight Games
3 Dungeons & Dragons - Wizards of the Coast
4 Dark Heresy/Rogue Trader/Deathwatch - Fantasy Flight Games
5 Iron Kingdoms - Privateer Press

And, here, D&D is still a top seller - in spite of putting out /no product at all/. Nothing.


Though I doubt it's the point, it's hard to see how 5e can fail. As long as WotC doesn't pull the rug out from under it by simply not putting out books the way it did after the initial Essentials release, 5e can't possibly do anything but top lists like this.

I wouldn't be surprised to see 13th Age break into the Top 10 or even #5 with the release of the Bestiary and 13 True Ways.

The d20 retro-clone market is pretty crowded.

 

[Morrus]

[MENTION=5590]jodyjohnson[/MENTION], thanks for compiling all this. I've organized it into tabular fashion here, to make it easy to see at a glance!

 

[TerraDave]

So, here's where Pathfinder finally pulls ahead, only /after/ the switch to Essentials and a much slower pace of publication.

And, here, D&D is still a top seller - in spite of putting out /no product at all/. Nothing.


Though I doubt it's the point, it's hard to see how 5e can fail. As long as WotC doesn't pull the rug out from under it by simply not putting out books the way it did after the initial Essentials release, 5e can't possibly do anything but top lists like this.

I was surprised to see how well WotC did after 2010...

You were right. 5E is not failing. I did not think it would.

But, just outselling the competition is not enough. They cooked up essentials because being number 1 was not enough. Sales expectations for WotC/D&D are at an entirely different level then other rpgs.

Or at least they where. Not sure now about Paizo. They have staffed up. Built out the brand. They don't have the corporate master...but it will be interesting to see how things turn out.

 

[dwayne]

Well I live in a small town in the bible belt and we can not keep the 5th edition D&D books on the shelf at the local hobby store so I say they will take top spot with a vengeance, and I liked 3.5 and pathfinder but have seen the 5th and have to say a lot more solid and polished over all easy to play and fun and still has the spirit of D&D that was so lacking for a while. I think it will appeal to both older and new alike.