5e? No Fragin Way!

[wlmartin]

I was ready to hijack http://www.enworld.org/forum/4e-discussion/308663-i-want-old-realms-back.html
with my rant but thought it was unfair so instead I will post it hear

--

5th edition is not around the Corner.
Yes, WotC are withdrawing some of their emphasis on New Mini's and throwing out books for the sake of it but that to me is more a worry that they are ditching 4th completely not lining up 4.5 or 5th.

3rd came out in 2000
3.5 came out in 2003... although this was less about a new edition and more that they rushed to get 3rd on the shelves that 3.5 was the revision they needed. If they had DDI back then we would have just seen 3rd + revisions

4th came out in 2008

So between 3rd and 4th we saw 8 years.
It has barely been 3 and people are already nailing the coffin in 4th Edition and I am getting a bit tired of it.

Not to mention that there is massive interest in 4th edition currently. Dark Sun is still in its early days, Encounters is still going strong. They would be stupid to announce a new edition now and I don't think they have any intention of doing so but because they are shrouded in mystery and all we hear is them reducing content rather than plans for new content, we all see 5th edition in the wings.

When 4e came out and during its Dev stages, the economy was nowhere near what it is at the moment. Gaming is a luxury and always will be and as long as there are people out there losing their jobs, their houses and having to struggle to make ends meet - it is doubtful that a Gaming Company be it WotC or the big-bad Hasbro guys are going to invest millions of $$$ into marketing, promoting and producing a brand new edition.

In business, especially Big Business such as Hasbro, there are no rash decisions when it comes to things like releasing a new edition. Hasbro/WotC will have figured out how many of their products are still sitting on the shelf unsold, how much demand there is for a new edition as well as the options to explore avenues including Campaign Expansions. Hasbro are not going to be able to justify the millions needed to invest in a brand new edition when there are still plenty of miles left on the current edition (FFS, we only have 3 Campaign Worlds... there is plenty of years left in this dog yet)

So, lets think what we want to think --- if you want to believe that the fragile franchise that is D&D is solid enough to start marketing a brand new edition regardless of it is even wanted (which it isnt) then feel free. I would like to think along more positive and constructive lines as "What are WotC going to do to drive progress with the 4th edition"

I can not wait for GenCon 2011 - I sense something good is around the corner and hope that whatever it is requires lots and lots of promotional junkits as Chris Perkins needs to get his shiny head back on the red carpet and serve up some DMing to the stars (what about those Big Bang Theory guys... I would love to see them in an online D&D session!!)

Sorry if my rant is ... well ranty but the rats-leaving-a-stable-and-no-way-close-to-sinking-ship mentality is a bit much for me and I had to say something.

edit : I had to put in that there are 3 Campaign Worlds, remembered FR and DS but forgot about Eberron

 

[twilsemail]

I hate to break it to you, but people aren't going to change. They're going to continue saying 5e is right around the corner until, years from now, 5e comes out. Then they will laugh at us and say that they were right all along. This is true even if "right around the corner" ends up taking ten years.

 

[Dice4Hire]

Well, you know people who cannot find anything intelligent to say can just talk about 5E.

But seriously, thee are some people who can talk intelligently ab out 5E, but those who put a 5E shot in a totally unrelated thread are just trolling.

 

[delericho]

5th edition is not around the Corner.
Yes, WotC are withdrawing some of their emphasis on New Mini's and throwing out books for the sake of it but that to me is more a worry that they are ditching 4th completely not lining up 4.5 or 5th.

Maybe, maybe not.

3rd came out in 2000
3.5 came out in 2003... although this was less about a new edition and more that they rushed to get 3rd on the shelves that 3.5 was the revision they needed. If they had DDI back then we would have just seen 3rd + revisions

Actually, it was the other way around. 3e had had significant time and effort put into it, and a huge playtesting effort (way more than either 3.5e or 4e).

According to the 3e designers, 3.5e had been part of the plan from the outset, but it was intended to come out about 5 years after 3.0e - but the priorities shifted and it was put out ahead of schedule. And this, and the relative lack of playtesting, are really quite obvious - although 3.5e is on balance the better game, several of the supposed 'improvements' are nothing of the sort.

4th came out in 2008

So between 3rd and 4th we saw 8 years.

Indeed. And The Rouse said at the time that he felt 8 years was "about right" for an edition cycle, which would suggest 5e in 2016. But The Rouse is no longer at WotC, and priorities change...

It's a bad idea to read patterns into the release dates for the editions. The lifespan of 1st -> 2nd matches 2nd -> 3e quite closely; 4e broke with that tradition by releasing 'early'. Who knows when 5e will come?

It has barely been 3 and people are already nailing the coffin in 4th Edition and I am getting a bit tired of it.

For a while before 4e was announced, WotC cut back on their release schedule. They went (relatively) quiet on communications. And we saw "Design & Development" articles, notably from Mearls, musing about bits of design. In retrospect, it was obvious that 4e was coming - we just missed it because WotC stated "we are not working on a 4e (that requires miniatures)". (Sadly, we mis-read that last part.)

And now... WotC have cut back on their release schedule, gone (relatively) quiet on communications, and we're seeing "Legens & Lore" articles, notably from Mearls, musing about bits of design...

Still, it's a bad idea to read too much into patterns...

Not to mention that there is massive interest in 4th edition currently. Dark Sun is still in its early days, Encounters is still going strong.

The 4e settings model is three/four books and then done. So Dark Sun is done. Encounters will transition to any new edition, and just roll on - though they'll probably try to tie up the release of any 5e with the start of a new 'season' of Encounters.

In business, especially Big Business such as Hasbro, there are no rash decisions when it comes to things like releasing a new edition.

Hah! Read Dilbert, and then realise that it's a documentary. (Yes, hyperbole. Sadly, by less than you think.)

So, lets think what we want to think --- if you want to believe that the fragile franchise that is D&D is solid enough to start marketing a brand new edition regardless of it is even wanted (which it isnt) then feel free. I would like to think along more positive and constructive lines as "What are WotC going to do to drive progress with the 4th edition"

The thing is, WotC now have a pattern of ordering a new edition whenever there's a blip in sales. 3.5e was released early, as discussed above. Given the condition of 4e when first released, I wouldn't be at all surprised to find they expected at least one more year of playtesting. And Essentials sure came out quickly... Releasing a new edition gives a nice solid sales bump which can be mighty tempting to a company. (Granted, it's a bit less with each edition, especially if they follow quickly after one another, but if you're really struggling, sometimes you have to take anything you can.)

Also, with Essentials, and especially the new Red Box, WotC quite clearly made an attempt to recapture lapsed gamers. This seems to have largely failed (as could have been predicted - most lapsed gamers are lapsed for a reason). Their next attempt to pull back lost custom has to be to try to recapture the people who stuck with 3e or, more likely, moved to Pathfinder. But 4e can't do that. Recapturing those people in any numbers will require a new edition, and it will have to be significantly different from 4e to work.

Or they can try to pull in new players in numbers, but that's a vastly more difficult proposition. And the apparent winding down of 4e releases strongly suggests that WotC aren't happy with how that's going.

So, yeah, I think 4e is coming closer to its end. And since the choices are "cancellation" or "new edition", I'd much rather speculate about 5e.

 

[wlmartin]

Maybe, maybe not.

Come on? We are doing Maybe, maybe not arguments now?
... The sun will rise tomorrow
... er, Maybe, maybe not

Actually, it was the other way around. 3e had had significant time and effort put into it, and a huge playtesting effort (way more than either 3.5e or 4e).

According to the 3e designers, 3.5e had been part of the plan from the outset, but it was intended to come out about 5 years after 3.0e - but the priorities shifted and it was put out ahead of schedule. And this, and the relative lack of playtesting, are really quite obvious - although 3.5e is on balance the better game, several of the supposed 'improvements' are nothing of the sort.

I wasn't arguing that 3.5 would or would not have been planned. My point was that the revision itself, in this day and age would not have occured at all.. they would have just updated DDI with erratas until they were happy, or failing that released a new edition. .5 anything suggests an element of "Ah, we have no real way of addressing these things little by little, so we have to wait until we have enough problems to address in a completely new release"

It's a bad idea to read patterns into the release dates for the editions. The lifespan of 1st -> 2nd matches 2nd -> 3e quite closely; 4e broke with that tradition by releasing 'early'. Who knows when 5e will come?

I do accept that reading a specific pattern into the cycle of an edition is no-way close to being a definitive projection of when it is going to occur and who knows, 5e COULD be around the Corner, the point I am trying to convey is that the only way it WOULD be released right now is if WOTC are stupid (and I dont think they are) and want to effectivly kill of the brand since there will be a massive revolt by fans who have spent £100s on corebooks in the past few years to see a new edition released without any real justification.

The thing is, WotC now have a pattern of ordering a new edition whenever there's a blip in sales. 3.5e was released early, as discussed above.

So, yeah, I think 4e is coming closer to its end. And since the choices are "cancellation" or "new edition", I'd much rather speculate about 5e.

If WotC release 5e, they will be killing the brand IMHO. No-one will invest in it and unless they can present some revolution in the game (which I really can't see unless they plan to produce holographic minis or something) then all that will happen is the edition will fall flat on its face, WotC will ditch the idea and be less likely to produce a new edition when it is needed in the future.

I don't think that 4e is coming to an end at all. I do appreciate that unlike Magic : The Gathering which WotC can continue to grind the £££ or $$$ until the cows come home, D&D is and will always be Corebooks + Supplements = Done.. If WotC accept that all they should be doing is promoting new campaign settings and add-on material then that is good.

All throughout Essentials, they were insisting to players that "This is not a new edition so don't worry" - they appreciate that rolling out a new edition is something they will get a massive backlash from fans about (they are still getting it over 3.5 vs 4e... imagine what 4e vs 5e will be like!). So I think they know the consensus out there.

If WotC are under some kind of delusion that D&D is about making money as a continuous revenue stream (DDI aside) then we could see a 5e coming out soon - however its reception will be covered in poop and sent back undelivered!

So... maybe I should reword my post a little

If WotC are stupid, 5e is on its way - get your poop boots on as the poop is about to hit the spinning metal blowy thing
If WotC are smart, 5e is possibly waiting in the wings but won't be released until the market is ready for it

 

[delericho]

Come on? We are doing Maybe, maybe not arguments now?

???

You made an assertion. I noted that you might be right ("maybe"), or might not be ("maybe not"). I then presented my counterpoints further on. "Maybe, maybe not" was not the extent of my argument!

I wasn't arguing that 3.5 would or would not have been planned. My point was that the revision itself, in this day and age would not have occured at all.. they would have just updated DDI with erratas until they were happy, or failing that released a new edition.

Um, haven't they just done exactly that with Essentials? Yes, Essentials is fully compatible with 'classic' 4e (which was the big mistake with 3.5e), but it's still the exact same beast - a new version of the core of the game incorporating the developments since the initial release.

.5 anything suggests an element of "Ah, we have no real way of addressing these things little by little, so we have to wait until we have enough problems to address in a completely new release"

It's just a name. Like Essentials. It just happens to be a rather poorly chosen name.

If WotC release 5e, they will be killing the brand IMHO. No-one will invest in it and unless they can present some revolution in the game (which I really can't see unless they plan to produce holographic minis or something) then all that will happen is the edition will fall flat on its face, WotC will ditch the idea and be less likely to produce a new edition when it is needed in the future.

I don't agree. I believe you'll see a lot of sound and fury, and then the vast majority of 4e players will move across. The fact that so many are dependent on the DDI, and the likelihood that the 4e DDI will go away when 5e hits, means that they'll move across or abandon D&D altogether.

I actually don't think WotC would be wise to go with 5e now. I think they should find some way to get at least two more years out of 4e. But my gut feeling is that WotC aren't going that way. And while I don't think this is the optimal time to release 5e, I don't agree that WotC would be 'stupid' to do it - if they go that way it will be because they've done an analysis and concluded that a new edition makes better sense than sticking with the old.

I don't think that 4e is coming to an end at all. I do appreciate that unlike Magic : The Gathering which WotC can continue to grind the £££ or $$$ until the cows come home, D&D is and will always be Corebooks + Supplements = Done.. If WotC accept that all they should be doing is promoting new campaign settings and add-on material then that is good.

There's not a lot of material in campaign settings, and the supplements seem to be played out. WotC don't have the focus on a single setting that Paizo do, nor do they have a reputation that will allow them to survive on adventures (they may be too large for that to ever be a possibility).

The DDI could secure the future of the game indefinitely, and allow them to set their edition cycle at their leisure, but I'll happily bet 56,000 subscribers isn't enough to do it - I'd bet the DDI was sold to management on a projection of many many more subscribers than they actually had (and has cost way more to set up than was promised).

So that leaves "new edition" as the option on the table.

All throughout Essentials, they were insisting to players that "This is not a new edition so don't worry" - they appreciate that rolling out a new edition is something they will get a massive backlash from fans about (they are still getting it over 3.5 vs 4e... imagine what 4e vs 5e will be like!). So I think they know the consensus out there.

Except that it's not. I for one would happily accept a (good) new edition. I'm not alone.

Lots of people rejected 4e. That's not an opinion, it's fact. Pathfinder should not exist. It should not have even been a possibility. Regardless of the sales of 4e itself, the mere fact that people can suggest Pathfinder is outselling 4e and not be ridiculed must be regarded as something of a failure at WotC.

So WotC can certainly be forgiven for looking at that, deciding that there's potentially a market there that can be won back, and calculating that 5e is the way to do it.

Sadly, I think they're doomed. Just as lapsed players are lapsed for a reason, so too do I think the people who left D&D did so for a reason. And just as the Red Box seems to have failed, so too do I suspect any attempt by WotC to win back the Pathfinder faithful will fail. Hell, at this point they could probably buy Paizo, republish Pathfinder as 5e, and still fail.

 

[Zaran]

Yeah, I think if they switch to 5e it will not go well. They have so much they could do with DM tools still. Of course, I do not have much faith in WotC lately. Everything has been dialed down so much this year that one has to wonder what exactly they are doing with all the DDI money and staff they have.

 

[wlmartin]

5e is going to be sold in one of a few ways in the future
1 : When the D&D Community is not ready but WotC are

Result : There is going to be a big battle between the D&D Community & WotC, WotC will win but it won't be pretty.
​

2 : When the D&D Community is ready but WotC are dragging their feet

Result : Personally this is the more likely outcome, WotC are going to bleed the well dry and we will be crying for a change, they will have us where they want us so that the new edition will taste as good as a starving man eating a bowl of dirt!
​

3 : Both the D&D Community & WotC are ready

Result : Whilst I would hope that their polling and feedback will get a release of 5e when it is due and everyone is ready, life never happens this way sadly.
​

4 : WotC / Hasbro can D&D!

Result : Nuff said, I doubt this will ever happen but in this economy you never know!
​

​

 

[Raven Crowking]

You know, I have said before (and still believe) that pulling 4e now would be a mistake.

But, the rumbling in the vineyard does suggest that a new edition is on the way.

I wonder, though......given that the fan base is already split.....might we have two concurrent editions? This would be similar to the AD&D/BECMI split of early TSR, with each version designed to cater to specific fans. If, like AD&D/BECMI, the design could allow cross-pollination of materials......?

That might be a good move for WotC.....?


RC

 

[Raven Crowking]

5e is going to be sold in one of a few ways in the future
1 : When the D&D Community is not ready but WotC are

Result : There is going to be a big battle between the D&D Community & WotC, WotC will win but it won't be pretty.
​

I wouldn't bet the farm on this one.

It is not at all certain that WotC "won" the last big battle, and, if so, it was a Pyrrhic victory at best.


RC