D&D 3E/3.5 5E's Initial Raw Sales Numbers Stronger Than 3E's!

It seems that the initial sales of D&D 5th Edition are very strong. Asked about how they compare to 3E and 4E, WotC's Mike Mearls says that "Raw numbers are stronger, but that's not the complete picture. end of year 1 is the key." The Player's Handbook has now topped the hardcover nonfiction sellers list at Publishers Weekly. As of right now, it's #1 in Fantasy Gaming at Amazon, and a week ago it was the #1 book on Amazon!

In other news, prompted by some discussion about the gaps between D&D edition releases, I whipped up this quick info-graphic showing the dates that each edition was released. [threadcm]http://www.enworld.org/forum/showthread.php?359004-So-I-have-been-out-of-town-for-a-few-weeks-did-I-miss-something[/threadcm]

 

[M.L. Martin]

Slightly off-topic, but Hyrule Historia is an awesome book.

It is--and it's pretty darned impressive that it's still so high on the rankings, since it's been out for over a year and a half.

 

[Klataubarada]

And then there is this:

books #1-5 from my favorite game, followed by a book from second favorite game.

 

[TerraDave]

Its dipping a little bit

#4/#9/#1

It is hard to compare to past releases, but through the way-back machine, I was able to find out that (for bestsellers) the:

4E PHB did get up to 33, fell to 54. then plumeted.


PFCRB got up to 369 (and maybe a bit higher, based on what I poasted above), but seemed to stay in the hundreds longer.

So the starter set, which I think got into the top and 10 and is now at 199, looks good by those numbers.

The PHB is something else. The difference in sales as you move into single digits is massive.

 

[drjones]

Glad that it is doing so well. I think 4e might have paved the way a bit in that it brought in new players that were added to the grognards, both groups of which see some appeal in 5e. I know our group is half new half old and generally are excited over 5e.

I was a little taken aback to see the PHB on the top of the non-fiction list, but then I saw how divorced from reality the other books on that list were and changed my mind.

 

[Rygar]

I'm familiar with some of the sales rank numbers which you're referring to and based on what I've read, I think you are for the most part correct. But from what I've read, IIRC, those who have deciphered the numbers have said that it's thousands per day overall, not just Amazon. Thousands per day includes everyone who reports to Nielsen Bookscan (which is how they translated Amazon ranking into units). So, yes, 20k-30k per week, but not Amazon alone. But these figures also don't include the pre-order that have been going on since May, and the Starter Set and PHB have been in and out of the Top 100 a few times, even off peak. We'll never know for sure, but I do think 150k-250k is likely by the end of August. With a few more spikes when the MM and DMG are released, along with the holidays, I think 500,000 PHBs sold by the end of the year is entirely likely.

Maybe someday we'll get lucky and Mearls will tell us how many Basic D&D downloads (per revision) there were, because I could see that being two to three times more than that. Not everyone who downloads will play, not everyone will buy the books. But split it into thirds (1/3 download and leave, 1/3 download and buy, 1/3 download and play, but don't buy), and you could imagine 5E having at least a million new players in 2014 alone.

I definitely agree it's looking like they're going to sell hundreds of thousands, and I bow to your knowledge on sales ranks as that explains some oddities in the info I had read.

I think 500,000 is optimistic though. Reportedly 3.0 sold 500,000 total, 3.5 sold 250,000, I saw 250,000 bandied about for Pathfinder, and the best estimate I can come up with for 4th based on available info puts it between 50,000 and 100,000 (When using multiple data points). It's definitely in the realm of possibility, especially with the resurgence of board gaming and the major decline in video gaming, but honestly I'd predict closer to 300,000.

 

[Thaumaturge]

This exchange seems pertinent as well.

View attachment 63841

Thaumaturge.

 

[SkidAce]

I wonder where I got all my news about 3rd edition from...

/looks up at banner

 

[Uchawi]

Exactly, until you know the size of the print run, selling out does not mean much.

 

[Thaumaturge]

Sure, but he's comparing a 2014 product with a 2008 product and a 2009 product. Amazon was huge in 2008, so it's a much better comparison.

Oh no doubt. I just figured someone would raise the point sooner or later, so I got the ball rolling.

I still think there's probably some acceleration from 2008 to 2014, but my guess is it's less. Still, 5e is doing quite well out of the gates.

Thaumaturge.

 

[SkidAce]

I would call it BS to be honest. There weren't that many people on the internet in 1982 and Danny Mills has a book which contains every user on the internet back then and I seriously doubt Mist is on it.

When did we skip back from talking about 2000-2001, to 1982?