Frostmarrow
First Post
I read somewhere that the computer game industry has made studies that reveal the human mind loves a 70% success rate. Let's discuss how this will influence the design of 4E (assuming the designers will aim for this particular success rate).
A first level fighter often have AC in the low twenties in 3E. But the same fighter will probably have something like +5 on it's attack. This gives the player a mere 15-25% chance of hitting with a common attack. First level ain't sweet - and we already know this.
In order to have a 70% chance of hitting in 4E something must be done about AC, or BAB, or both. We know that AC will be removed in favor of defenses. I'll hazard a guess that a fighter will have a Ref Def of about 4 points lower than his to hit bonus. I.e. a fighter with a +5 to hit bonus at first level will have a Ref Def of about +1 (+10). The equivalent of AC 11.
I'm also guessing that armor will be sub-optimal compared to innate Ref Def because armor is so good at low levels (in 3E) but this problem will go away as the level based Ref Def increases. This means we won't see plate mail +8. Armor will be toned down to something in the range of +1 -- +5 at the very most. -Otherwise you ruin the sweet spot.
Does this make sense? Will anyone care to make further predictions based on this assumption?
Consider the following table:
Level --- To hit --- Ref Def
1 --- +5 --- +1
2 --- +6 --- +2
3 --- +7 --- +3
4 --- +8 --- +4
5 --- +9 --- +5
6 --- +10 --- +6
At this rate armor will be a wrench in the machinery for a long time (if plate remains a +8). I think it's safe to say you can use armor or Ref Def as your defense, as it stands in SWSE. If armor only reaches up to +5 heroes will stop using them pretty early whilst common NPCs will still be wearing them (as common NPCs are supposed to be low level dudes in D&D).
The table above is probably the progression we will see for warlords, clerics, paladins, rogues, and rangers. Fighters will have a slightly better To hit (an extra +1 or even +2 in rare circumstances). The rest of the classes will lag a few points behind. But they will keep up and not drop further behind as is the case in 1st through 3E.
A first level fighter often have AC in the low twenties in 3E. But the same fighter will probably have something like +5 on it's attack. This gives the player a mere 15-25% chance of hitting with a common attack. First level ain't sweet - and we already know this.
In order to have a 70% chance of hitting in 4E something must be done about AC, or BAB, or both. We know that AC will be removed in favor of defenses. I'll hazard a guess that a fighter will have a Ref Def of about 4 points lower than his to hit bonus. I.e. a fighter with a +5 to hit bonus at first level will have a Ref Def of about +1 (+10). The equivalent of AC 11.
I'm also guessing that armor will be sub-optimal compared to innate Ref Def because armor is so good at low levels (in 3E) but this problem will go away as the level based Ref Def increases. This means we won't see plate mail +8. Armor will be toned down to something in the range of +1 -- +5 at the very most. -Otherwise you ruin the sweet spot.
Does this make sense? Will anyone care to make further predictions based on this assumption?
Consider the following table:
Level --- To hit --- Ref Def
1 --- +5 --- +1
2 --- +6 --- +2
3 --- +7 --- +3
4 --- +8 --- +4
5 --- +9 --- +5
6 --- +10 --- +6
At this rate armor will be a wrench in the machinery for a long time (if plate remains a +8). I think it's safe to say you can use armor or Ref Def as your defense, as it stands in SWSE. If armor only reaches up to +5 heroes will stop using them pretty early whilst common NPCs will still be wearing them (as common NPCs are supposed to be low level dudes in D&D).
The table above is probably the progression we will see for warlords, clerics, paladins, rogues, and rangers. Fighters will have a slightly better To hit (an extra +1 or even +2 in rare circumstances). The rest of the classes will lag a few points behind. But they will keep up and not drop further behind as is the case in 1st through 3E.
Last edited:
