genshou said:
Actually, 3 sixes rolled nets an 18, a +4 bonus. 3 ones rolled nets a 3, a -4 penalty. The statistics of getting either is the same, and the mechanic works to the same level in the opposite direction.
SBMC said:
Really? Please tell me how the probability of rolling dice has to do with a -4 or a +4. That was the point I had made in response to the "linear" and "curve" statements made by several others as well here.
The CONSEQUENCE is the modifier; that does not drive the probability of 3 1's or 3 6's. The chances are equal for either one. Feel free to look that one up - you'll find it under "Game Theory". It dates back to the 1960's. In their it identifies the proof why casinos will always end up ahead.
As I had said "gambling". When you roll dice to generate ability scores you are hoping that you end up on the for right of the curve.
I don’t understand what point you are arguing here–it looks as though you and I are in agreement about this point. The probability of rolling a 3 or an 18 are equal with 3d6, and the modifiers are equal mechanically (4 - 4 = 0). The modifiers are simply a way of illustrating that the game mechanic for modifiers of equal chance are equal in that regard as well. Of course, nobody wants to be on the lower side of the curve, which is why rolling methods for generating “heroes” gained popularity and were officially adopted in 3rd Edition rules.
SBMC said:
Point-Buy is not really measurable by any sort of probability as there is little "chance". It is a decision by an individual.
Ahh, my apologies. That reference was rather irrelevant.
SBMC said:
Even when rolling 15d6 the probability for any of the 6 numbers coming up on any dice is indeed equal. However given the mathematics involved and 15d6 the likelihood of the numbers being evenly distributed over a wider numeric spectrum is higher. However note that the probability of each die is still the same per die if you roll 1 or a million of them. It is the combination of those curves that push the numbers towards the middle.
Yet another thing we understand perfectly between the two of us. If I roll 1 million dice for nonheroic ability scores, I’ll probably never generate a character with either a bonus OR a penalty.
SBMC said:
HOWEVER if you do what most folks do and DROP some lower dice then the probability of having a higher average increases exponentially based on the number of die rolled. Tink about it. If I have
6
5
4
3
2
1
My average is 3.5
I drop the lowest 2
6
5
4
3
My average is 4.5
Choose any numbers you want (unless they are all the same of course - which has an equal probability of occurring as anything else per die; less probable for the whole lot simultaneously) and the same thing happens. Thus your statement is no entirely correct.
Actually, it is VERY correct in the context in which I actually gave that statement. Consider the following approximate percentages for given ability scores being rolled using the standard 4d6, drop lowest die method:
3: 0.07%
4: 0.3%
5: 0.8%
6: 1.8%
7: 3.3%
8: 5.5%
9: 7.7%
10: 10.3%
11: 12%
12: 13.3%
13: 12.8%
14: 11.3%
15: 8.7%
16: 6.3%
17: 3.5%
18: 1.6%
These percentages were calculated by a program I wrote which runs all 1,296 possible 4d6 rolls and then ignores the lowest die, adding the other three together. Clearly, it’s not a common occurrence for a hero to have a 3 in any of their ability scores. Even an 18 is very rare. Over 50% of ability scores fall between the ranges of 10-14. The average ability score is 11.99614, which we could just approximate as 12 to say that’s the middle ground to expect on a given die roll.
As for rolling 20d6 and dropping the lowest 5 dice, the program I made has some problems with variables, but when it does successfully run from start to finish without crashing it rolls a total of 1,200,000d6, in groups of 20, and drops the lowest 5 before adding the others together. This results in 60,000 separate ability rolls, or enough for 10,000 characters. Wow.
When I originally wrote the program, I didn’t have access to
mythusmage’s scaling system. Now that I have that, I’ll run it and be able to compare percentages and actual ability modifiers, instead of splitting it among 75 unfamiliar numbers from 15-90.
Rolling a -4 or +4 is impossible. The following percent chances applied to the other modifiers based on the 60,000 scores rolled:
-3: 0%
-2: 0%
-1: 0.13%
+0: 44.8%
+1: 45.9%
+2: 8.8%
+3: 0.15%
As you can see, you’ll almost never end up with a score that isn’t +0 or +1. Even dropping the same
percentage of the total dice, you still end up with scores leaning an excessive amount toward the middle. What if we used 1 million d6, drop 250,000 lowest? Same thing to a much more extreme scale. That was all I was trying to say. Obviously, rolling 5d6, drop 2 lowest greatly increases the averages. I’m simply pointing out that even *heroes* under
mythusmage’s system will be more “mundane” than before due to the higher percentage of scores rolled within a smaller modifier range (over 90% are +0 or +1).
The point I was making is that I, or others here most likely, could start throwing mathematics, diagrams, mapping of curves, etc. up on the actual board and others may not like it. Perhaps I am wrong. I also, in making my statement, did not want to start getting into a discussion about the actual calculation of probabilities - but it appears perhaps you do want that.
Oh, very much so, as you can see above! If they don’t like it, TOO bad! I’m having fun relearning programming in order to calculate all of these!
Besides, this is a valid point that needs to be brought up in order to make
mythusmage’s system work. Speaking of which, where has
mythusmage disappeared to during this discussion? You’d think [he/she?] would have wanted to comment on something by now. *shrugs*
You don't hate to say it - you wanted to say it otherwise you would not have. I would venture to guess it is because you ran out of anything substantial to say given you spent half your post criticizing a portion of mine and virtually ignoring the meat of it.
Trolling if I’ve ever seen it. Regardless, I hope I’ve paid enough attention to the meat of the matter in this post to satisfy your carnivorous desires, yes? If not, go eat a cow–I can’t offer much more sustenance without being sucked dry (a very uncomfortable experience, to be certain).