Three points are being missed here:
1. Any decent dex monk build will include Weapon Finesse, so the str monks aren't actually any more likely to hit.
2. The monks big strength in combat is mobility, and that relies on Tumble, and Tumble is dex based. Particularly at lower (< 7th) levels the extra bonus to Tumble makes a difference.
3. The str bonus diminishes with respect to the damage dice as the monk increases in level. Whereas as a first level monk is only trotting out d6+str mod, by 8th they're doing 2d8+str mod (assuming Improved Natural Attack, and what combat monk build is not going to take that?) and it rocks on up from there. This effect is not repeated with AC, because AC only matters relative to the hit bonus.
I would say, yes, a str monk will be better in a straight toe-to-toe fight but why would use a monk for such a build? They'll be royally owned by any competent fighter or barbarian build. The Monk's strength lies in tactical ability and Mage Slaying, and for that you want to dance past the defenders with the greatest of ease.
1. Any decent dex monk build will include Weapon Finesse, so the str monks aren't actually any more likely to hit.
2. The monks big strength in combat is mobility, and that relies on Tumble, and Tumble is dex based. Particularly at lower (< 7th) levels the extra bonus to Tumble makes a difference.
3. The str bonus diminishes with respect to the damage dice as the monk increases in level. Whereas as a first level monk is only trotting out d6+str mod, by 8th they're doing 2d8+str mod (assuming Improved Natural Attack, and what combat monk build is not going to take that?) and it rocks on up from there. This effect is not repeated with AC, because AC only matters relative to the hit bonus.
I would say, yes, a str monk will be better in a straight toe-to-toe fight but why would use a monk for such a build? They'll be royally owned by any competent fighter or barbarian build. The Monk's strength lies in tactical ability and Mage Slaying, and for that you want to dance past the defenders with the greatest of ease.