Garnfellow said:
Well, I am not going to engage you in a long, drawn-out debate on the economy, as it is largely off-topic and particularly since you seem to have an ideological axe to grind. But since you obliquely called me a liar, and since you keep banging your little drum by citing "sluggish economy" in every one of your posts, here's the last thing I'll write on the subject: a comprehensive analysis of the current US economy is a extremely complex undertaking that must take into account a multitude of often conflicting data points, and is almost impossible to do with perfect clarity in real time. Professional economists disagree over the interpretation of common economic indicators every day of the week. For example, consumer spending was up 0.6 percent in April. Doesn't that mean the economy is strong? Well, maybe, but it appears that much of that increase was due to high gas prices.
1. I didn't call anyone a liar, obliquely or otherwise. If I meant to say you were a liar, I would have said "You are a liar".
2. I have no axe to grind, ideological or otherwise, nor drum to bang. I just think it's funny how some folks want it to rain on some other folks so badly, they'll say that it's raining and hope the objects of their scorn will feel wet.
3. It seems to me that since a "comprehensive analysis of the current US economy is an extremely complex undertaking", I should just smile and nod and accept what you say is true, despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary, because, you know, it's so complex and stuff. In other words, I'm too stupid to understand the big words, so I should just let the social elite do the thinking and I should just agree with them, right? Riiiight....
Garnfellow said:
While I must admit I did casually throw out the phrase "sluggish economy," I don't think you can be readily trumpeting that everything is hunky dory, either. Sluggish doesn't mean recessive much less depressive, but I probably should have wrote "uncertain economy," since the best anyone can say right now is that we are getting some very mixed signals regarding the health of the economy. Some signs are very promising, some are rather worrisome. If you want to see that glass as half full, great for you, man. I hope your investments do well. Just don't call me a liar for suggesting that the glass could also be half empty.
I'd believe "uncertain economy" over "sluggish economy", certainly. When a country kicks out UN atomic energy inspectors on Tuesday and then calls for the "wiping off the map" for another country on Wednesday, it certainly makes for an uncertain world. But the facts are pretty strong that the US is not in recession, nor depression, nor suffering high inflation, nor high unemployment, or any other of dozens of bell-weather indicators of economic trouble brewing. My point was that many many people DO have an axe to grind, and they casually throw out accusations that are completely meritless in the hopes of changing public opinion without something as niggling as facts or data. Don't take it personally, because I didn't mean any offence, but I did take exception with the trend in general, and in my virtual life as in my real life, I'm tired of letting half-truths and boundless insinuations go unchallenged.
Now, back on topic, I agree that the "D20 bubble" may have (or is about to) burst, but I really believe that is due not to the economy, but to the inevitable cycle brought out by the OGL and the reinvigoration of D&D by 3rd ed. Lots of people hopped on the d20 bandwagon, and flooded the market with product of varying quality. Now, years later, every concievable topic has been done, usually twice, and the companies with the best products are the ones still standing, it seems. But we have come to a point in the life cycle of the new edition where good ideas and real innovation are harder to come by, and the remaining competition in the field is stronger than ever before. Players who have been playing since 3rd ed came out have lots of books now, and aren't particularly interested in another book on elves, or on castles in the swamp, or new races, etc etc.
As for PDFs, like I said, I buy lots of books, but won't ever buy another PDF, and I certainly won't pay for the same book twice just so I can read one on my computer. If GR is releasing product in PDF form to see if it'll be hot enough to print, then the odds are pretty good that I'll miss out on some product, because a lot of people who think like I do would have bought a printed book on a certain topic but never would have bought the PDF, so the "trend" wouldn't have been seen and the product wouldn't make it into print. Essentially, because I and others of my ilk don't buy PDFs, our "vote" will never be counted by GR. Now, I don't know how they will actually run things, but off the top of my pointy lil' head that's how it seems. As if I can only have the pleasure of buying product from their company that others have "voted" for buy buying lots of PDF copies. *shrug*
But, then again, I don't run a company and my bills aren't paid by having my opinions on the RPG industry be accurate. Mr Pramas has a company, a good one at that, and has done research and seen the data and made up his (and his company's) mind. So be it.