dm4hire
Explorer
If this was his prediction verbatim, then his prediction is correct. I have chosen the OGL version and rejected the changes of 4E. There are many, many others like me.
If his prediction was that MOST people or ALL people would do so, then I agree, his prediction seems to be incorrect. (But without the lack of real data, who knows?)
I'd have to agree with you. I am eagerly awaiting the final version of Pathfinder as well as Fantasy Craft and Song of Ice and Fire. Two OGL and a spin off of the OGL. I've also picked up Ubiquity which is a new system used in Hollow Earth Expedition and post apocalyptic "Desolation." The point being, that despite having mixed feelings about 4e and owning just about every book to date, I'm looking for something better than 4e. Heck even Arcanis' possible variant OGL is sounding promising.
Another way of seeing how well D&D is doing is by looking at Amazon's ratings. Their down right horrible for the most part with the average for the corebooks being 3 stars.
Until OGL has had a chance to weigh in against D&D you really can't say that his prediction is false. I think we're just getting ready to see how wrong or right he really was come the end of the year or a year from now.