Are PCs expected to beat skill challenges?

[FireLance]

Check me on this. Couldn't we just treat this as always being 11 rolls, and just doing straight probability from that? Basically it would be:

C(11,8) * (.45)^8 * .55^3

Yep I got it. I wasn't including the possibility of doing more than 8 successes in that series of rolls. When I include that, I get the same number you do.

Actually, I just used Excel, and used linked cells to calculate the probability for each outcome.

 

[FireLance]

If the players decide to try and disrupt a ritual by reading a book IN THE MIDDLE OF A BATTLE, it should make the battle harder. Yes there is a small chance of it working. That's good, I wouldn't want it to be easy.

Oh, I agree that it should make the battle harder. However, the way that it is currently set up, the Arcana and Religion checks are free and the Heal checks are minor actions. The extra difficulty is caused by the chance to take damage on failed Arcana or Religion checks, and the loss of a healing surge when the challenge as a whole is failed. So, the players aren't being penalized for taking attention away from the fight. Instead, it seems as if they are being penalized for being creative and attempting something that not all players will think of.

Its not as if the characters are locked in. They can choose to stop at any point if it is not working out for them.

While this is true, I think the encounter still sets up a rather perverse incentive. Intentional or not, the message that it sends to smart players is that creativity is counter-productive, and that they are better off just fighting. It adds fuel to the complaints that D&D is turning into a minis game.

I like that this gives another option. I also like that it is not the easy option.

I like the additional option too. I don't like the fact that the additional option has a trivial chance of success. As Simplicity said, it's like dangling a poisoned carrot, and even worse, it's a poisoned carrot that only creative players will nibble at. As a DM, I want to encourage this kind of creativity, not suppress it.

I like some of the suggestions that have been made so far, e.g. giving a small advantage for every two successes made, or giving a bonus to the checks if the player sacrifices a move or standard action. In addition to these, I might scale the DCs for the Arcana and Religion checks so that they start at 19, increase to 20 after two successes, and then to 21 and finally 22 to represent the increasing complexity of the closure ritual.

 

[The Shadow]

Check me on this. Couldn't we just treat this as always being 11 rolls, and just doing straight probability from that? Basically it would be:

C(11,8) * (.45)^8 * .55^3

Yep I got it. I wasn't including the possibility of doing more than 8 successes in that series of rolls. When I include that, I get the same number you do.

Huh. I wasn't expecting this to work, but when I tried it, it did. It's the same amount of calculations in any event, just an alternate approach.

 

[FireLance]

Actually, it looks like you could win the skill challenge in 3 rounds if you were lucky. (And am I crazy, or did those Arcana/Religion checks say minor action this morning? It says free action now.)

The fight is listed as a 6th-level fight, so using a 6th-level challenge to "bypass" it seems okay to me (though it looks rough to me).

It wasn't clear from the challenge, but it seems to me that successfully completing the skill challenge doesn't automatically win the fight. At most, it removes one of the hazards from the area.

 

[Lacyon]

It wasn't clear from the challenge, but it seems to me that successfully completing the skill challenge doesn't automatically win the fight. At most, it removes one of the hazards from the area.

That's one way to look at it.
[SBLOCK]The ritual book also bursts into flame, so if the PCs end up running, captured, or dead, they still "win", because Kalarel can't re-open the portal.[/SBLOCK]

If my players attempt it at level 3, I'm going to ignore the 4 failures bit and let them keep trying throughout the whole fight if they want - the damage from failing individual checks is punishment enough during combat.

Also, if you don't modify anything, the challenge itself offers a quest reward of 750 XP. Combined with the rest of the encounter you're getting over 2,000 XP - that's the equivalent of a normal 8th-level encounter I think.

I'm still okay with it being hard.

 

[FireLance]

I'm still okay with it being hard.

There's "25% chance of success" hard and "pray for a crit" hard. I'm okay with the former, but not the latter, especially if you (effectively) get only one shot.

And, your proposal to remove the four failures will turn it into the former. The key problem with the challenge is that currently, even the best pre-gen character has a 94% chance of scoring 4 failures before he can get 8 successes.

 

[CrimsonNeko]

Something I just realized. Isn't 22 a hard difficulty, and thus gives a bonus when they succeed? If so, this isn't that bad, and it would make sense as something like this would get easier the closer you are to succeeding. But I do agree there needs to be some bonus for winning this challenge, although 750 xp is a nice start.

 

[Dracollich]

How I'll be running the final challange

[SBLOCK] I like CrimsonNeko's take that a successful attempt will add to the next attempt. I'll be giving the PCs a +1 on the next attempt after a success. I'll also be giving all undead in the room a -1 to hit until the end of their next turn after a success as the portal draws power from them in an attempt to remain open.

If the portal is closed before Kalarel is slain, his body falls to the ground were he stands.

If the portal is still open and Kalarel is defeated, the energies from the portal lash out and drag the body into the portal. One PC adjacent to Kalarel will get one attempt to hold onto the body (DC 22 athletics check, +2 per additional PC adjacent to Kararel) If the attempt fails, Kalarel is lost to the portal.

Portal Closed/Kalarel defeated or Portal Open/Kalarel stopped from being dragged into portal - PCs get full exp and full treasure
Portal Open/Kalarel dragged into portal - PCs get full exp but do not receive the +2 dagger Kalarel is carrying. Also, Kalarel will return as a future undead villain.
[/SBLOCK]