I still maintain that the biggest mistake they made was changing the fluff along with the crunch. The 2e fluff was still usable in 3E, making the transition from 2E to 3E easier. So, in addition to deleting so much of what people liked about 3E flavor wise (you mentioned Wyatt's idiodic claim), 4E also discarded too much of the traditional setting(s) that made D&D what it was to many people. To me, the game essentially was completely new with only the name D&D remaining. (Obviously not everyone agrees with this, but apparently enough people did to cause 4E's failure.)
I share the opinion that keeping a bunch of the fluff would've helped ease the continuity breach brought on by the necessary discontinuity in the crunch.
I disagree with the notion that "enough people did to cause 4E's failure." Failure depends on your goals. The revenue goals Hasbro put on the D&D brand were failed, certainly. There wasn't enough money in the RPG market to meet them, period. By those standards every RPG brand in the market is a miserable failure. I think that speaks to corporate thinking in terms of what they are trying to squeeze out of this brand and how compatible that is with a traditional D&D model of trying to turn a profit selling the same people splat-books until they burn out and tune out.
If we're talking about how long the edition lasted, I guess 3.0 was a failure. It had to be replaced in 3 years and revising the edition to fix its problems nearly resulted in an unseemly end involving pitchforks and torches. 3.5 went 5 years before 4E. 4E runs 5 years before the release of D&DNext. :shrug:
I think, far more than that, the biggest mistake was not releasing under something similar to the OGL. Then third parties could have produced conversion material for the older fluff (as well as add-ons based on broken system concepts for those wedded to them).
I don't think that's a mistake from the company's perspective. In fact, it highlights the fact that the biggest mistake they ever made in regards to their business model was the OGL itself.
The business model we've seen since the TSR days that holds true to today is a simple cycle:
1.) Sell PHB / DMG / MM
2.) Sell splat books
3.) Stop producing new content for that Edition
4.) Repeat steps 1-3 with a new edition that's not fully backwards compatible so people buy your new line to use new content
The OGL broke that cycle horribly. The owner of the brand couldn't end-of-life the market's support of for-profit OGL content. That meant for the first time ever D&D's owners couldn't use the "exclusive new content" carrot to prod people into moving on to the new edition.
No OGL means no Pathfinder, no 3.75, no new commercial splats or adventures for 3.X products. The lines reaches end-of-life.
Instead Wizards/Hasbro stuck a knife in that business model as it relates to 3.X IP with their OGL. OGL competes with their new product lines for market share and doesn't put any money in their pockets - no license fees, no royalties, nothing. It's like building a restaurant, running it for 8 years successfully, then building a new restaurant across the street and leaving the old one just standing their for anyone to take, complete with all the old furnishings, recipes, and equipment. Sure, they have to change the sign over the door but they don't even need to change the drapes or even pay for their own building. They get what you paid to build! Yeah, that's not exactly a recipe for success.
Absolutely. WotC took a risk on a big sea change and while it might have worked for a period of time, it wasn't sustainable over the long haul. But kudos for them for attempting the big sea change in the first place.
It seems like the OGL situation made that sea-change mandatory. Anything too similar could basically be copied over with cosmetic tweaks for minimal cost by any competitor. It isn't like complex open-source software where you're trying to create a revenue stream by providing enterprise-level support and customization others can't. The D&D model was always closed-source software that hits end-of-life.
3.5 wasn't sustainable over the long haul. It went 5 years and the revenues started to sag enough that they had to bail out. You can only print so many splat-books.
People forget the hue and cry that went up over the release of 3.5 three years after 3.0. WotC realized (probably quite correctly) that if they attempted to release a 4.0 that was basically along the lines of what Pathfinder was... a revamped 3.5... they would have been crucified. Even if their 4.0 ended up being a technically better product. That wouldn't have mattered. Sure, looking back on it now, a bunch of us would probably try and claim "Oh no! I would have LOVED a 3.75 or 4.0"... but most who would say that are full of crap. After spending $200+ on full sets of 3.0 and 3.5 books... those 4.0 books released by WotC five years later would have been shat upon as nothing but a money grab. And don't let anyone try and tell you different.
Precisely.
On top of which, the actual revenues generated by Pathfinder aren't anywhere near adequate to meet the revenue goals Hasbro set for the D&D brand.
In the end... WotC tried to bet big on a game that would bring many new or returning players back to D&D. Which they did in spades. It was just the established playerbase that were not as willing to follow the game in its new direction. But they never would have realized that had they not tried. And now that they have seen the results... they are trying a course correction with 5E that will run between the games in hopes that both sides will give a little ground.
The problem they are really faced with is that the established player base wasn't worth enough money to keep the brand alive. It was a choice between doing something new that could potentially obsolete the OGL content and get that monkey off their backs or let the Dungeons and Dragons brand get put on the Hasbro back-catalog gathering dust for years-on-end while everyone went looking for new jobs.
Until Hasbro changes their expectations, sells the brand, or allows Wizards to adopt another revenue-model for the D&D Brand (game sales can be low-revenue if ancillary sales like novels, toys, movies, boardgames, etc. are driven up by the main game) the problems will linger.
- Marty Lund