D&D 5E Array v 4d6: Punishment? Or overlooked data

[DND_Reborn]

Then canvas the stats. Of those groups, how many averaged below a 25 point buy value? Have any?

Call it whatever you want. I really don’t care. But again the overwhelming preponderance of evidence is that for rolled groups average higher than baseline. Whether it’s just generous rolling methods or flat out cheating doesn’t really matter. The result is always the same.

I strongly doubt that you’ve ever played in a group that die rolled their characters where the group average is below 25 points. A single character? Sure. Maybe. But a group? Nope. Not buying it.

Well, it isn't surprising though, is it?

4d6k3 avg. 12.24
Point-buy (5E) avg. 12.05
Standard array avg. 12

By comparison:

Standard array = 72 points total
For point-buy, 46% have 73 point totals or higher, and 26% equal 72 points. Only 28% are below the standard array in point total.
For 4d6k3, 55% have 73 point totals or higher, while just 6% equal 72 points. So, 39% are below the standard array in point total.

Since point-buy averages 72.32 total points, 4d6k3 has the same 55% of 73 point total or more and 39% are below.

Now, this is with the 27-point system used in 5E.

Finally, in a 5-player party, the odds of every player rolling 4d6k3 total points less than point-buy or standard array is less than 2%.

 

[Sacrosanct]

The evidence of years of this topic coming up and every single time the same results.

That’s not evidence. Evidence would be the math (like the first post) or screen shots of people’s character sheets (like what I posted).

You arguing your position over and over isn’t evidence any more than the person who keeps arguing the moon landing is faked is evidence. Sake of argument does not equal evidence.

 

[Sacrosanct]

If you had GOP by level 3 or 4, you had a very generous DM or a Monty Haul style game IME.

Ioun Stones, Manuals/Tomes, and a handful of other items (Egg of Reason, Gem of Insight, Pearl of Wisdom, etc.) could increase ability scores beside STR, but with GOP and GOGS, STR got the easiest boost.

Now, in 5E, GOP are uncommon which is ridiculous IMO, but since they give you STR 19, which any PC can have without them, shrug.

5E also has crazy items for potentially insane ability boosts (hold over from other d20 editions I imagine...), but attunement at least helps prevent some abuse.


Sort of true. That lower in 1E did mean an additional 10% chance to fail to learn a spell as well as fewer minimum and maximum spells per level, not to forget that INT 14 could never learn 8th or 9th level spells (if you got that far...). Now, none of that directly impacts combat, sure, but having a diminished spell selection does have impact potential on combat.

I’ll look tomorrow, but IIRC GoOP appear in a mid level adventure. ADnD was also known for ability increasing magic in an adventure that weren’t tied to magic items. Off of the top of my head, Into the Unknown, Castle Amber, and White Plume Mountain all had ways to increase stats magically. I’m sure there are more.

 

[ECMO3]

Question: when you say "go down" do you mean simply unconscious and making death saves, or in fact outright dead?

Generally Yes. I have had very few characters above 3rd level outright die. I can't say I don't mistep sometimes and say "when a character dies" when I really mean "when a character goes to 0hps", but "goes down" means zero hit points when I use it and the vast majority of time they are healded before they have a chance to die.

When I am speaking, "going down" means 0hps and alive, dead means dead (or at least I will say I intend dead to mean dead).

For the 40+ years of our 1e-variant games I've got reams of data on character deaths, and in general I find there's not all that much difference between the class groups (warrior, mage, cleric, rogue) as a whole. That said, small sample size on a few infrequently-played classes gives some outlying results when looking class by class; to wit, Cavaliers drop like flies while - ironically - Necromancers don't die often at all.

Well 1E was a different game. I was playing in 1981 and back then going down did mean dead.

 

[Hussar]

Well, it isn't surprising though, is it?

4d6k3 avg. 12.24
Point-buy (5E) avg. 12.05
Standard array avg. 12

By comparison:

Standard array = 72 points total
For point-buy, 46% have 73 point totals or higher, and 26% equal 72 points. Only 28% are below the standard array in point total.
For 4d6k3, 55% have 73 point totals or higher, while just 6% equal 72 points. So, 39% are below the standard array in point total.

Since point-buy averages 72.32 total points, 4d6k3 has the same 55% of 73 point total or more and 39% are below.

Now, this is with the 27-point system used in 5E.

Finally, in a 5-player party, the odds of every player rolling 4d6k3 total points less than point-buy or standard array is less than 2%.

Basically proves my point then doesn't it?

The reason to die roll is to get higher than point buy or standard array. So, @Sacrosanct I believe that this is the proof you requested? The odds of averaging lower than either point buy or standard array are fairly small - as in about 1 in 3 (ish). The odds of the group being below are pretty close to zero.

Which has been my point all the way along. The primary effect of die roll (even if it isn't the stated reason) is to get a party that has higher than baseline stats. And, while @DND_Reborn's numbers seem to indicate that about a third of die rolled characters should be below the 72 points, I'd bet dollars to donuts that in play that's not true.

 

[Lanefan]

Then canvas the stats. Of those groups, how many averaged below a 25 point buy value? Have any?

Call it whatever you want. I really don’t care. But again the overwhelming preponderance of evidence is that for rolled groups average higher than baseline. Whether it’s just generous rolling methods or flat out cheating doesn’t really matter. The result is always the same.

I strongly doubt that you’ve ever played in a group that die rolled their characters where the group average is below 25 points. A single character? Sure. Maybe. But a group? Nope. Not buying it.

And I agree with this. The average across the board in most (close to all?) rolled groups would be higher than 25-point buy. Why's that? Because 25-point buy is, by most standards, very low.

My benchmark is always the average of the six stats. 25-point buy can give an average just over 12 but only if all the stats are 12 or 13. Try giving yourself a 17 and a 15, say, and your average gets kicked in the teeth. (by comparison, standard array - which is even worse - gives a locked-in average of 12.00, if memory serves)

Rolling 4d6k3 gives an overall average of about 12.25 but within that average it allows for a much greater variance.

Further, context matters. In 3e-4e-5e bonuses start at 12; and penalties at 9. In 1e bonuses didn't start until 15 or 16, depending on stat, and penalties didn't start until 7 or 6. So if you're looking at this in a 1e context (where it's recommended by the designer a character start with at least two 15s) an average of 12 is quite low; where in a 5e context an average of 12 might well be enough to get you by.

 

[Lanefan]

I’ll look tomorrow, but IIRC GoOP appear in a mid level adventure. ADnD was also known for ability increasing magic in an adventure that weren’t tied to magic items. Off of the top of my head, Into the Unknown, Castle Amber, and White Plume Mountain all had ways to increase stats magically. I’m sure there are more.

Castle Amber, however, takes as well as gives.

Forgotten Temple of Tharizdun also has (risky!) means of stat enhancement, if memory serves.

 

[Lanefan]

Generally Yes. I have had very few characters above 3rd level outright die. I can't say I don't mistep sometimes and say "when a character dies" when I really mean "when a character goes to 0hps", but "goes down" means zero hit points when I use it and the vast majority of time they are healded before they have a chance to die.

When I am speaking, "going down" means 0hps and alive, dead means dead (or at least I will say I intend dead to mean dead).

OK, got it.

What this means, though, is when you say that class-x goes down more often than class-y it's almost always a very temporary situation without lasting consequences, and therefore any difference between classes is nowhere near as big a deal as it would be were those characters all ending up dead.

Well 1E was a different game. I was playing in 1981 and back then going down did mean dead.

Yep, unless your table used the death at -10 variant with 0 to -9 meaning unconscious.

 

[Lanefan]

Basically proves my point then doesn't it?

The reason to die roll is to get higher than point buy or standard array. So, @Sacrosanct I believe that this is the proof you requested? The odds of averaging lower than either point buy or standard array are fairly small - as in about 1 in 3 (ish). The odds of the group being below are pretty close to zero.

Which has been my point all the way along. The primary effect of die roll (even if it isn't the stated reason) is to get a party that has higher than baseline stats. And, while @DND_Reborn's numbers seem to indicate that about a third of die rolled characters should be below the 72 points, I'd bet dollars to donuts that in play that's not true.

That the point-buy and standard array values are set lower than the rolled average might be an intentional trade-off, however, for the certainty of knowing what you'll end up with for stats.

 

[cbwjm]

The gauntlets added +2 to strength.

Ah right, I must have been thinking of the belt of giant strength which granted the better bonus.