What you're doing is you're attempting to reduce my statements to "opinion", and that sort of anti-science stance isn't worth my time. I'm not having the "opinion" that risk is a cost, I'm telling you for a fact it is. Go check it up.
Seeing as you have clearly explained what you mean by risk is a cost, I did look it up. I googled "risk is cost." I didn't get any science though, I just got a lot of business stuff, which is kind of what I was expecting. It talks about the cost of dealing with risk, such as working to mitigate it, paying for insurance to cover losses, administrating all of this. But this is just the cost of dealing with the bad rolls: the guys you took a chance on giving a loan who didn't turn out to be able to pay you back. The thing is, this isn't anything beyond the fact that when you take risks as a business, things don't always pan out. In TTRPG terms, it isn't anything beyond rolling bad hit points occasionally. In a game there are costs with that as well. You go down more often, you need more health potions, that sort of thing.
No, what I'm talking about is that risk itself is a cost. I'm not just talking about the cost when the outcome is low. I'm talking about the variability itself.
Very crude example.
Here's the thing about your crude example: it is just talking about the cost when the outcome is low. That cost is losing the scenario. You roll low, you lose; you don't roll low, you win. There is nothing else in your example.
Which isn't so artificial after all, since having low hit points is much more of a disabler than having high hit points is a enabler. Perhaps not in all campaigns, but certainly in most.
If you only look at the cost of the outcomes, then you'd think 1d6 and 3,5 hp is equal.
Why would I think they are equal? 1d6 gives me a 67% chance of winning, and 3.5 gives me a 100% chance of winning. Those are not equal. You made an artificial situation where they aren't equal, to try to show that they aren't equal in any situation. That does not follow logically.
Furthermore, I take issue with low hit points being more of a disabler than having having high hit point is an enabler. You claim this is true in most campaigns, but what is your data for making that assertion? You don't have any. And it is certainly not true in any campaign I've played in. Five years now, I haven't seen a single character killed except by other characters. You go down, someone casts Healing Word or gives you a potion, and boom your back up again. Not that I would consider my campaign to be indicative of other campaigns. But that's the point, I don't have the data and you don't either. And without the data to back you up, you can't just throw away the math.
But when you consider that 1d6 hp represents a 33% chance of certain doom while 3,5 hp completely avoids that, you might be able to understand what I mean: risk is a cost in itself.
Not beyond rolling bad. That 33% chance of certain doom in your artificial scenario is solely from rolling bad. There is nothing causing it beyond that.
Asking regular gamers to "understand the risks" is
1) incredibly dismissive to gamers
No, it's dismissive of your argument.
2) wildly underestimates how difficult the average gamer finds making proper probability calculations
All I have asked of games is addition, division, and doing a web search. If you don't think the average gamer is capable of that, you're the one being incredibly dismissive of gamers.
3) wildly underestimates how little the average gamer even want to think about statistics, instead trusting the designer to provide him or her with reasonably weighted options
I have argued for designers to provide reasonably weighted options in this very thread. We are just disagreeing on what is "reasonably weighted."
4) incredibly dismissive to the job that is game design. Asking gamers to do the risk calculation themselves is akin to "write your own scenario" where the writer just gives you a pitch and a rough outline, and leaves all the details to the DM to fill out. That's just not worth the money you pay to have someone write an adventure for you.
If gamers cannot do risk calculation, then game design should remove all risk. And I don't see how expecting players to do that is somehow the same as not doing any game design at all.
I guess we're different you and I.
I take it for granted that a game isn't out to fleece the unwary, the ones unable to resist thrills, and the math deficient.
This part I find very interesting. You said the game was hiding the risks. I pointed out that nothing was being hidden. Now you are saying I'm fleecing people. ??? We don't play for money at my table, so I am unaware of how I am fleecing anyone. But thank you for moving the goal posts.
I would also note that this a consistent refrain from you:
Risk is a cost. Many people aren't good at realizing this.
Too many people will go with the thrilling choice of possibly getting a whole six hit points, not caring about the equal possibility of getting just one.
This makes me think you want a game where risk isn't risky. The cost of risk you were talking about in your crude example was just the cost of bad rolls. You want to be compensated for that. You are compensated for that, by the good rolls. But that is not enough for you. You want to be compensated more. It seems you want the bad rolls not to be bad. That's not a game design I will get behind.
Finally, what I see here is ad hominem attacks, hyperbole, and moving goal posts. I don't see this conversation going anywhere useful, so I am not going to participate in it any more.