As long as we are talking hypothetically...

[megamania]

...comment on your response to the following scenario:

1. 4E is successful, maintains itself as the top selling and most played RPG, and runs 8-10 years in its current direction before being replaced by a 5E even less like previous editions
2. Pathfinder tapers off after a successful launch by 3PP standards, and achieves a stable presence on par with True20 or Mutants and Masterminds.
3. The 3.5E playing community shrinks over time until its on par with people playing previous editions.
4. OGL based gaming begins a slow decline, with the big names soldiering on and fewer and fewer new products being released.

In all likelihood this is what will happen...... good or bad. Eventually there will be a computer system created that works the way they had hoped at WoTC to play to illiminate paper and competition.

 

[lutecius]

1. 4E is successful, maintains itself as the top selling and most played RPG, and runs 8-10 years in its current direction before being replaced by a 5E even less like previous editions

I don't think this is very likely. Not that 5e is necessarily coming soon (though I'd be pleased), just that fewer (if any) 4e books, will be published in a couple of years due to low sales.

In the meantime I will probably play 3.5 or other systems occasionally if I can find other players but I am not interested in switching to 4e, even if it's the only game in print.
Not because it's too different from previous editions (pathfinder for example, isn't enough of a departure for me), I simply dislike the 4e approach. So a very different 5e could still bring me back.

Anyway, if 4e lasts that long, the next edition will probably mostly focus on electronic features and online gaming. A compatible pen-and-paper version may or may not be supported.

 

[Alisair Longreach]

There will never be a 5th edition of D&D because the world ends 21. dec. 2012, but maybe our ghostly selves might meet somewhere in the higher dimensions to play an astral version of our favorite editions.

 

[ggroy]

1) I think the stance that there will be no 4.5E will be problematic if they get to the fourth year and are having trouble selling the PH4, DMG4 and/or the MM4 in quantities that would stave off a new edition need. I think the new marketing initiative does well to frontload the first few years with sales for extended versions of the game by spreading out what was traditionally core rules over several years of books but keeping fresh beyond that and maintaining high sales levels might be difficult through even half a dozen years, let alone ten.

This "frontloading" of so many books in the first two or three years, is one thing which has me feeling pessimistic about the future viablity of 4E. What will they do for an "encore" after PHB4/DMG4/MM4 (or higher), to maintain significant sales? (That is, without introducing a 4.5E).

The 4E design goal of maintaining balance throughout, may possibly put a further constraint on possible future new classes, races, power sources, paragon paths, epic destinies, etc ... (Then again, some of the new classes, races, feats, prestige classes, etc ... introduced in the 3.5E splatbooks were not always that impressive and/or appeared to be derivative).

I suppose if they don't have enough new content to publish into a splatbook of 160 pages (or more), they can publish it in Dragon or Dungeon magazine on DDI.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

My personal thought is that while streamlining made it highly playable, and easy to prep, it also minimized the mechanical diversity available to the game, and that will shorten it's effective lifespan.

I think that this is a keen observation...and we've seen it before.

Microgames' The Fantasy Trip was a good game, but its simplicity- awesome and charming though it was- was also quite limiting.

However, TFT's structure was a keystone in the development of GURPS. The expansion of its system into what would become GURPS has made the game a long-term player in the RPG market.

 

[xechnao]

What does Paizo's production cost have to do with things? If they have 50.000 people who play their game, they have 50.000 people who play it (ie around 1% of the D&D community) it. Production cost doesn't really matter when we are talking marked share.

Pathfinder's market success has to do at 100% with the profitability of the Pathfinder rpg line. For Wotc, D&D's market success -and thus further investment in the line and further development- is also connected to the performance of other values that are controlled by the D&D merchandise.

Aren't we talking the speculation into fantasy land now?

Do you have any facts that tell you so?


If the D&D merchandise performed badly and you could make a sweet deal with someone that had some chances to revive it, would you do it or not? Of course, you could be a company that tries to kill by competition rather than create by competition. That is take advantage of the destructive forces of the competition rather than the creative ones- but in a creative environment it is usually the later than the former. Most video game companies would not seek to shelf video game lines for example in a similar situation -this is my general impression. Of course Hasbro could behave differently but it would pay the PR price, especially if some company announced that was interested to buy and carry on said line but Hasbro chose to shelf it instead.

 

[ggroy]

Pathfinder's market success has to do at 100% with the profitability of the Pathfinder rpg line.

Paizo also has a GameMastery line, which makes maps for dungeons and other background settings which can be used with miniatures. I've noticed that even in FLGS which don't stock any Pathfinder books, they will frequently stock some of the GameMastery maps.

Paizo also sells unpainted metal miniatures.

 

[ggroy]

For Wotc, D&D's market success -and thus further investment in the line and further development- is also connected to the performance of other values that are controlled by the D&D merchandise.

How much a particular product line contributes to WotC's bottom line, is largely unknown. Hasbro does not itemize these things in any great detail, in their annual financial reports for shareholders.

Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see how much 4E D&D actually contributes to Hasbro/WotC's bottom line, compared to MtG, D&D novels, MtG novels, D&D miniatures, movies and video games licensing, etc ...

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

FWIW, before he stormed off, joethelawyer often posted Hasbro financials and/or shareholder transcripts (all publicly released stuff) on this site- if you search, I'm sure you'll find some.

 

[ggroy]

FWIW, before he stormed off, joethelawyer often posted Hasbro financials and/or shareholder transcripts (all publicly released stuff) on this site- if you search, I'm sure you'll find some.

I was reading Hasbro's 10K for 2008, which was filed with the SEC in Feb 2009.

SEC Info - Hasbro Inc - 10-K - For 12/28/08