Ben Riggs: 'The Golden Age of TTRPGs is Dead'

Author of 'Slaying the Dragon' predicts an end to the current boom.

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Ben Riggs, D&D historian and author of Slaying the Dragon: A Secret History of Dungeons & Dragons has posted an essay widely on social media entitled 'The Golden Age of TTRPGs is Dead'.

Note that Riggs uses the term '6th Edition' in this essay to refer to the 2024 core D&D rulebooks but says that "I am by no means married to the 6E nomenclature. It's just shorter than saying "the new books coming out this year" again and again and again."

We are watching a bright and special time in the TTRPG industry pass away before our eyes.

Around the start of the 2010s, we saw the dawn of a new golden age of tabletop roleplaying games. Since then, huge numbers of new players have found the hobby thanks to Stranger Things and actual plays like Critical Role. These new fans discovered a vibrant and thrumming TTRPG industry. There was the D20 fantasy family of games, dominated by D&D 5E, but rich with other games published under the OGL and the fertile depths of the Old School Renaissance. There were other mainstream publishers with storied brands, such as Call of Cthulhu, Deadlands, and Shadowrun. Lastly, there was a flourishing indie TTRPG scene that revolutionized what a TTRPG was, such as Apocalypse World.

This influx of gamers created a rising tide that lifted all boats. Novice gamers started out playing D&D 5E, yes, but went on to discover other great games. Because of the OGL, countless companies and designers could make money creating for D&D 5E. Because of the increasing number of gamers, even strange, freaky, or weird TTRPG ideas could find an audience. Have you heard of Apollo 47 Technical Manual the RPG?

But recent developments make clear that this radiant golden age is ending, as surely as the steam engine ended the age of sail, or hobbits bearing a ring ended the Third Age of Middle-earth.

The Doom of Our Time Approaches

In the wake of the Open Gaming License scandal of this past winter, a number of companies have successfully launched new TTRPGs intended to move them past the possibility of Wizards of the Coast ever threatening their businesses ever again. Some of the games grossed millions in crowdfunding campaigns. All have been positively reviewed.

Some cite the success of these games, which are intended to replace 5E/OGL content for the companies involved, as signs of the continued health and growth of the TTRPG industry.

They are not.

Rather, they are signs that the industry has peaked, and may be about to enter a decline.

Why?

After the Open Gaming License crisis of 2023, I became pessimistic about the damage the attempt to kill the OGL had done to our hobby. Others told me that the result of the crisis would be the blooming of a thousand flowers. Discouraged from using 5E by Wizards of the Coast’s attempt to kill the OGL, we would all get amazing new TTRPGs.

Maybe every single one of those new TTRPGs is going to be amazing. Maybe every one will be so fun and so captivating that lawns will go unmowed, pets unfed, and diapers unchanged because we are all so busy playing one of those games.

The problem is the TTRPG business is devilishly difficult. Only very rarely does the creation of a phenomenal game actually lead to financial success.

And the death of the OGL and the creation of these games has fundamentally changed the industry in such a way that it will be harder for those companies to make money in the future. A difficult business is about to become more difficult.

Consider the state of the industry a mere eighteen months ago; countless publishers, from MCDM and Kobold Press to Wizards of the Coast, were all making 5E material; it was easy to purchase products from multiple publishers because if you were running 5E, you could use the work of all these companies at your table; this made it easier for companies to share customers.

The new TTRPGs birthed by the OGL crisis are about to make that sort of customer sharing much, much harder. MCDM is publishing a TTRPG where you roll 2D6 to hit. Pathfinder’s 2nd edition remaster has no alignment and changed ability scores. Critical Role has dropped 5E like a dead cockroach and is playtesting its own new fantasy game, Daggerheart, which uses 2D12s, and a horror game named Candela Obscura.

And of course, there is the rising Godzilla that is 6th edition D&D, which scientists say will attack our shores in the spring of 2024. So far, there is no hint of an OGL for whatever that game will be.

The problem is, 5E was not just a game. It was a massive community of players. Countless companies could thrive making products for that community.

These new games are a shattering of that community. Instead of countless companies working to make your 5E game better, they are now asking you to become MCDM, or Darrington Press, or Paizo, or D&D 6E players. We are entering an era of division, faction, and balkanization.

The companies are now asking fans to choose sides. It also means that it is going to become more difficult for them to share customers. How interested will a Pathfinder fan be in an MCDM product? Or 6th edition? History suggests these sorts of barriers depress sales.

All This Has Happened Before

In the 1990s, TSR, the first company to publish Dungeons & Dragons, embarked on publishing setting after setting after setting for the game. By 1997, over a dozen settings were sold by the company. Fans stopped being fans of D&D, and instead became fans of a particular setting, and would only buy products for that setting. In 1997, TSR was near death as setting releases had plummeted from the hundreds of thousands of copies in the 1980s, to a mere 7,152 copies sold for the Birthright campaign setting in its first year of release. D&D was only saved from a terrible fate by Wizards of the Coast and their fat stacks of cash. They purchased TSR in the summer of 1997.

Some might say it is unfair to compare the different settings of the 90s to the different systems of today. Settings and systems are different, after all. And I do agree with the point. Switching systems is a BIGGER ASK than switching settings, therefore this change should have a LARGER IMPACT ON SALES.

And it is all happening again. The TTRPG audience is fracturing at the seams, and it will hurt sales and growth.

To focus only on MCDM, this current BackerKit is likely the most successful campaign the company will ever see. Every campaign after this will struggle to get the same sort of sales numbers as people slowly bleed away to the competition. Paizo will say check out our competing fantasy game. WotC will batter us all with a punishing wave of marketing trying to convince all of us of the newness and hotness of D&D 6th edition. (May it be both new and hot! But I have my doubts…) And fans will bleed away.

Furthermore, what will happen to the YouTube channel that is the foundation of MCDM’s success? Matt Colville is a master communicator and was a major evangelist for D&D in his channel’s heyday. He is passionate, intelligent, and inspiring. If Dungeon Masters could go into the locker room and get a pep talk from their coach in the middle of a game of D&D, that coach would be Matt Colville.

How much time is Colville going to devote to D&D now that it is essentially his competition?

In the past year, he has put out less than 20 videos on his channel. Those videos now range widely in topic, from TV reviews and interviews with language scholars to some D&D content, and a discussion of the creation of his new RPG. Go back five years, and Colville was putting out video after video after video of fantastic advice about running D&D, usually with 5E as the default. He dispensed some of the best advice on TTRPGs I have ever seen.

But it appears his content is fundamentally shifting, and he is asking that his audience go with him somewhere new.

Let’s look at MCDM’s recent efforts from the point of view of Wizards of the Coast. It is all ruin, disaster, and calamity. Master communicator and D&D fanatic Matt Colville has gone from convincing people to try D&D, and explaining how best to play D&D, to instead asking his 439,000 subscribers to stop playing D&D and play his game instead.

Not to mention that Critical Role—a huge reason for the recent surge in popularity of D&D—is likewise stopping their support of D&D, and asking their 2.1 million YouTube subscribers to start playing one of their two new games instead. I will not mention that, lest it further trouble the sleep of the D&D people at Wizards of the Coast… (What if 2.1 million people simply don’t buy 6th edition?)

In summary, all these events are interfering with the developments that created the golden age of TTRPGs. The removal of D&D from Critical Role likely hurts everyone involved. For years, Critical Role’s pitch was “Watch voice actors play D&D!” (A concept even my 80-year-old Aunt Sonja understands.) Now, the pitch is “Watch voice actors play Candela Obscura!”

But what is Candela Obscura? (If asked, Aunt Sonja might guess Candela Obscura was a potpourri scent.) The brand recognition that drove people to Critical Role is gone.

Simultaneously, the splintering of the D&D 5E community will make it harder for new designers to break into the industry, and harder for established companies to attract new customers. Growth in the TTRPG field will slow.

What the Future Might Look Like

And if I’m right, and this is how the golden age of TTRPGs dies, certain things follow naturally from these events. Here are my predictions—Prophecies?—that I may be held accountable for my rashness in writing all this down. I may be wrong, but if I’m right, the following things seem likely to pass:
  • Sixth edition will not do as well as 5th edition. Even more firings will follow. Wizards, which struggled to know what to do with D&D when it was a success (No Honor Among Thieves Starter Set? Really?) will be flummoxed by what to do with it when it is perceived as a failure.
  • No MCDM RPG crowdfunding campaign will ever do better than this initial campaign to fund its TTRPG.
  • Kobold Press’s post-OGL game, Tales of the Valiant, has been criticized for being too similar to 5E. For Kobold Press, I see two futures. Perhaps they will slowly bleed fans in the same way that MCDM will. But if D&D 6th edition is too different, and people really don’t want to move on from 5E, Kobold has positioned themselves to be the next Paizo, and Tales of the Valiant, the next Pathfinder.
  • The frequency of million-dollar TTRPG Kickstarters will decrease.
  • Attendance at major gaming conventions will plateau.
  • TTRPGs will become less interesting. Less exciting. Less creative. And despite all the new systems, it will also grow less diverse as it becomes even harder to make money in a TTRPG community broken into factions.
And so a golden age ends sputters out.

Unless something truly dramatic and game-changing hits the industry.

What could change this grim future? I suppose a group of publishers coalescing around a single system might change matters.

Or something truly inconceivable, something like giving 6th edition D&D an OGL, or putting the rules in the Creative Commons.

And after last month’s blood sacrifices upon the altar of profitability, who is even left at Wizards with the power and experience to advocate for such a thing?

It has been a grand era to be a gamer, one which we have been fortunate to live through.


There are a few inaccuracies in the essay--Critical Role does still play D&D, for example.

Numerous industry professionals have also posted thoughts in response, some agreeing and others disagreeing--you can see their comments on the original Facebook post, which is publicly viewable.

Mike Mearls, who was laid off from WotC a few weeks ago responded "WRONG! The age of fixating on one company and its decisions is dead. Now the audience is in the driver's seat. Let us hope they hit the gas."

Shannon Appelcline, of Designers & Dragons fame, said that he thought "the reports of the OGL's death are greatly exaggerated." He went on to say that fandom has kept WotC "from destroying the Golden Age".

Keith Strohm, D&D brand manager in the early 2000s, and later COO of Paizo, commented that it was "an exceptionally astute analysis" and that it was like "watching history repeat itself". He talked about the intent of the OGL and ended by saying "I don't want to be a prophet of doom, so I'm rooting for all of these companies, many of whom are either founded by or employ my friends and colleagues. However, I wouldn't launch a new system in this current environment."

Marvel Multiverse RPG designer Matt Forbeck said that "It might herald the end of a golden age of D&D, but other games may yet thrive".

Industry veteran Owen KC Stephens remarked "This is a well-considered, well-reasoned analysis. I disagree with almost all of it."

James Lowder, who directed various lines for TSR in the 80s and 90s, feels that "It's a Second Golden Age for game design and variety." He commented on WotC's possible plans for a digital-first edition of D&D--"If Hasbro/WotC tries to make the new edition a subscription-based, highly monetized walled garden, with radically increased direct-to-consumer sales, they will likely blight the market and the hobby--this is likely to happen whether they succeed or fail. This kind of move will roll back the overall audience for everyone and could well remove RPGs from many stores that rely on D&D sales in order to justify devoting the shelf space to RPGs."
 

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payn

I don't believe in the no-win scenario
We've had this argument before, and I'll simply repeat that my experiences across two APs does not suggest that the investment to get good noncombat healing early is that high. I suspect your standard of "long time" is far different than what we had.

(I also have to your comment about Focus spells has "often" doing some heavy lifting there.)



Its not exactly hard to figure out even in fairly limited play, though. I also don't think it changes my opinion that PF2e cares far less about ongoing resource consumption; you're only likely to see it be serious if a GM or AP insists on hammering moderate to severe encounters as the majority of encounters you hit.
I do find a lot of healing aint no thang, and healing is so important for everyone when it comes to PF2. This sort of fence hanging position is interesting. Its not a commitment to daily adventures or encounters, but if folks squint enough it can go either way. Personally, I find that tedious.
 

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Staffan

Legend
We've had this argument before, and I'll simply repeat that my experiences across two APs does not suggest that the investment to get good noncombat healing early is that high. I suspect your standard of "long time" is far different than what we had.
Delaying something to level 4 feels like a long time, particularly when you're working your way through the early levels where you don't really have anything in your back pocket to make up for it either.
(I also have to your comment about Focus spells has "often" doing some heavy lifting there.)
Oh, it totally varies a lot by class, and even by subclass. For example, my elemental sorcerer started out with elemental toss, a 1-action spell dealing damage that's a little above cantrip level with an attack roll. That saw a lot of use until I got elemental blast instead, which is a very flexible AOE dealing damage appropriate for a max-1 level spell slot – that one's amazing.

But then you also have things like tentacular limbs, angelic halo or fairy dust, whose main use is to enhance other spells. Those are not spells you can use to deal with weaker encounters, because without combining them with spells with actual oomph they're kinda useless. And many other focus spells have uses that have nothing to do with combat, like word of truth or face in the crowd.
Its not exactly hard to figure out even in fairly limited play, though. I also don't think it changes my opinion that PF2e cares far less about ongoing resource consumption; you're only likely to see it be serious if a GM or AP insists on hammering moderate to severe encounters as the majority of encounters you hit.
The expectation "one or two top-two tier spells per significant encounter, and you should probably only have 3-4 of those per day" is not anywhere in the book – definitely not in the CRB, and looking at Nethys it doesn't seem to be in GM Core either. The idea that you don't have infinite stamina is pretty clear, but it's hard to figure out where those limits are.
 

Thomas Shey

Legend
I do find a lot of healing aint no thang, and healing is so important for everyone when it comes to PF2. This sort of fence hanging position is interesting. Its not a commitment to daily adventures or encounters, but if folks squint enough it can go either way. Personally, I find that tedious.

The more you force a position on that, the more you end up with either some OSR games or 4e, and we see how well that worked out for the latter.
 

Thomas Shey

Legend
Delaying something to level 4 feels like a long time, particularly when you're working your way through the early levels where you don't really have anything in your back pocket to make up for it either.

I wasn't talking about delaying in levelling terms, but in time between encounters. We had no problem right from 1st level getting healed up between encounters, but then, the time to the next encounter left considerable slack. It also didn't hurt that we'd usually have at least two people willling to throw minimal skill feat investment toward healing.

Oh, it totally varies a lot by class, and even by subclass. For example, my elemental sorcerer started out with elemental toss, a 1-action spell dealing damage that's a little above cantrip level with an attack roll. That saw a lot of use until I got elemental blast instead, which is a very flexible AOE dealing damage appropriate for a max-1 level spell slot – that one's amazing.

I just noted I saw a fair bit of it in use, including one from my Champion that I got pretty regular use out of (I'd have to look it up, but I think it was a Word of some stripe).

But then you also have things like tentacular limbs, angelic halo or fairy dust, whose main use is to enhance other spells. Those are not spells you can use to deal with weaker encounters, because without combining them with spells with actual oomph they're kinda useless. And many other focus spells have uses that have nothing to do with combat, like word of truth or face in the crowd.

Yeah, but with weaker encounters there's no reason not to just toss around some cantrips and let the martials handle it.

The expectation "one or two top-two tier spells per significant encounter, and you should probably only have 3-4 of those per day" is not anywhere in the book – definitely not in the CRB, and looking at Nethys it doesn't seem to be in GM Core either. The idea that you don't have infinite stamina is pretty clear, but it's hard to figure out where those limits are.

I think its middlin' clear if you look at the structure of most APs at least.
 

payn

I don't believe in the no-win scenario
The more you force a position on that, the more you end up with either some OSR games or 4e, and we see how well that worked out for the latter.
Sadly, a lot of folks revolt if the baselines are not met. So, you end up with this awkward place between the two. I think it has less to do with design and more with player expectations.
 

Staffan

Legend
I wasn't talking about delaying in levelling terms, but in time between encounters. We had no problem right from 1st level getting healed up between encounters, but then, the time to the next encounter left considerable slack. It also didn't hurt that we'd usually have at least two people willling to throw minimal skill feat investment toward healing.
My experience can be clouded by having run "The Show Must Go On", the first part of the Extinction Curse AP. There, 1st level PCs are expected to deal with 3 low, 7 moderate, and 1 severe encounters (plus assorted roleplay encounters that give some bonus XP without being qualified as an "encounter", in a single night. Later on, when they've hit 3rd, they need to get through a hermitage filled with cultists (and some undead) to the tune of 2 low, 9 moderate, and 2 severe encounters (with one of the moderates potentially becoming severe), with the cultists having kidnapped some people they are trying to convert so there's implied time pressure (even if it's never outright stated). And at level 3, PCs should have like 40+ hp, so they're going to need multiple applications of Treat Wounds (2d8) to get back in fighting shape.

And even looking at APs that are somewhat later, like Fists of the ruby Phoenix, maintains this relentless pace. In Fists, the PCs are explicitly supposed to go from level 11 to 15 in four days.

I think its middlin' clear if you look at the structure of most APs at least.
Certainly not from the early ones.
 

Thomas Shey

Legend
Sadly, a lot of folks revolt if the baselines are not met. So, you end up with this awkward place between the two. I think it has less to do with design and more with player expectations.

I don't think if you have an audience you can entirely separate those.
 

Thomas Shey

Legend
My experience can be clouded by having run "The Show Must Go On", the first part of the Extinction Curse AP. There, 1st level PCs are expected to deal with 3 low, 7 moderate, and 1 severe encounters (plus assorted roleplay encounters that give some bonus XP without being qualified as an "encounter", in a single night. Later on, when they've hit 3rd, they need to get through a hermitage filled with cultists (and some undead) to the tune of 2 low, 9 moderate, and 2 severe encounters (with one of the moderates potentially becoming severe), with the cultists having kidnapped some people they are trying to convert so there's implied time pressure (even if it's never outright stated). And at level 3, PCs should have like 40+ hp, so they're going to need multiple applications of Treat Wounds (2d8) to get back in fighting shape.

And even looking at APs that are somewhat later, like Fists of the ruby Phoenix, maintains this relentless pace. In Fists, the PCs are explicitly supposed to go from level 11 to 15 in four days.

Even if they are, there are still hours available in some cases, and at the low end you just don't have enough hit points to need that degree of repeated attempts. At least not in Age of Ashes (even if it had other problems) and the Skaldwood Blight.

Certainly not from the early ones.

Early adventures in the D&D sphere are malformed, news at 11.
 

Staffan

Legend
Even if they are, there are still hours available in some cases, and at the low end you just don't have enough hit points to need that degree of repeated attempts. At least not in Age of Ashes (even if it had other problems) and the Skaldwood Blight.
1st level martial characters have between 16 and 25 hp (Ancestry 6-10 hp, Class 10-12 hp, Con up to +3). Treat Wounds heals on average 9 hp, so it's likely that if one character took a significant amount of damage they're going to need two rounds. Typical bonus would be +4 to +7 vs DC 15, so 50-65% chance of success. Each attempt for one character costs one hour of time – sure, you can do other things for most of that hour, but there's a one-hour cooldown before that character can be Treated again even if they take more damage. So we're talking 2-3 hours after each fight if you're relying solely on Medicine. Having a character around with resourceless magical healing (lay on hands, cornucopia/goodberry, Fresh Produce, Ocean's Balm) can certainly speed this up, but pure Medicine is a slog at low levels.
Early adventures in the D&D sphere are malformed, news at 11.
Not sure Fists of the Ruby Phoenix gets to skate on that. It was released in 2021, two years after the core rules.
 

Thomas Shey

Legend
1st level martial characters have between 16 and 25 hp (Ancestry 6-10 hp, Class 10-12 hp, Con up to +3). Treat Wounds heals on average 9 hp, so it's likely that if one character took a significant amount of damage they're going to need two rounds. Typical bonus would be +4 to +7 vs DC 15, so 50-65% chance of success. Each attempt for one character costs one hour of time – sure, you can do other things for most of that hour, but there's a one-hour cooldown before that character can be Treated again even if they take more damage. So we're talking 2-3 hours after each fight if you're relying solely on Medicine. Having a character around with resourceless magical healing (lay on hands, cornucopia/goodberry, Fresh Produce, Ocean's Balm) can certainly speed this up, but pure Medicine is a slog at low levels.

As I noted, we normally had two medics (one significantly better than the other) so getting people up to full usually wasn't that hard at that end. Yeah, it took a few hours if there was serious damage, but there wasn't after every fight, so so what?

Not sure Fists of the Ruby Phoenix gets to skate on that. It was released in 2021, two years after the core rules.

The fact something is common early in the run of new versions of systems in no way says it can't happen later too; it just says its endemic early on (I've seen it with both D&D 3e and 4e in addition to PF2e).
 

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