D&D General Ben Riggs interviews Fred Hicks and Cam Banks, then shares WotC sales data.

[darjr]

I do think there are a sizable group of people sticking with 5e 2014, I think more than WotC would like. Maybe.

And there are a lot of 2014 PHBs out there.

Still as far as I can tell 2024 is doing ok. We’ll see longer term, especially as peoples current campaigns end.

I don’t think 2024 PHB sales have crashed, come down certainly, but not disastrously so.

 

[Zardnaar]

I do think there are a sizable group of people sticking with 5e 2014, I think more than WotC would like. Maybe.

And there are a lot of 2014 PHBs out there.

Still as far as I can tell 2024 is doing ok. We’ll see longer term, especially as peoples current campaigns end.

I don’t think 2024 PHB sales have crashed, come down certainly, but not disastrously so.

Forums kind of assume everyone switches over en masses. New D&D love or hate it its something new to talk about

See previous comments about the differences in forum users and casuals. Two different worlds.

 

[Stalker0]

I mean, I understand that EVERY thread even slightly smelling of sales data must immediately become a battleground between people that believe it is a failed edition and that it is proof of 5E's immortality. I just find that the most boring of all possible discussions on the topic of D&D.

I understand that its not a topic that is pertinent to everyone, but there are people that geninuely want to know "is dnd healthy business wise?".... "is Dnd growing or shrinking?", etc etc.

The issue is because there of the lack of hard numbers, a lot of the discussion moves into speculation, and people misquoting things and the like, often not even intentionally just because they heard something in some thread and now think that is a true fact. So part of the discussion is to make sure the actual facts are getting circulated and picked up by those discussions.


Speaking personally, I have not been that impressed with 2024, and I have feared that it was not selling well. It has been heartening to hear quotes and facts that suggest the opposite, I'm glad to be proven wrong in this case and that the half edition is selling well. For some that is "not surprising", but every new set of rulebooks is a calculated risk, and there is always the risk that this is the time your audience goes "eh....not worth the money this time". I am glad that is not the case for 5.5e (at least so far), but would not have known had I not seen those facts and quotes circulated recently.

 

[Stalker0]

Welcome to Edition War 2

Maybe like edition skirmish

The edition war back in the day was pretty nasty, arguments got really really REALLY heated. In comparison most of these arguments are fairly calm.

 

[AlViking]

So we had making up number of players and assuming that only 1 in 5 people at the table buy the PHB. Now it's taking the statement that the 2024 PHB sold more copies on a month than the 2014 PHB to mean ... I think ... that the 2024 PHB has peaked and its all going to be downhill from here?

Doesn't all that spinning make people dizzy? It also seems to ignore that young people pick up the game all the time, the pool of people playing is not static.

We have no way of knowing what sales will be over a decade span because that would be the only real comparison for those that care. Heck, I like the game and I don't care as long as I can find people to play with.

But I just can't wrap my head around how we can turn the 2024 PHB selling far more than expected into a negative.

 

[FrogReaver]

The problem with 2024 and comparisons to 2014 are that initial states are no where near the same. 2014 started at a low point and had to build back the empire. 2024 starts out at one of the highest points of D&D.

As such, I don't believe it's fair to compare 2024 to the first years of 2014, it's just not apples and apples. Comparing it to the peak year of 2014 PHB sales could be telling (if it sold better than 2014), but they haven't done that as far as I know, probably because it doesn't paint 2024 in a clearly superior light and may paint the brand in general in a negative light (declining sales compared to peak is the Fear spell for investors).

And if, as the silence seems to confirm, that they aren't yet higher than 2014 peak, so what. That doesn't mean they never will be or that it's doing badly now.

What I suspect is that at the end of 2024, that 2024 will likely have sold much more than 2014, but in terms of explosive growth, i don't expect 2024 to multiply to the same degree that 2014 did.

Maybe 2-4 times larger vs 10-14 times larger of 2014, at least that's my guess. The only question is whether that will be enough for Hasbro's expectations.

 

[Reynard]

I understand that its not a topic that is pertinent to everyone, but there are people that geninuely want to know "is dnd healthy business wise?".... "is Dnd growing or shrinking?", etc etc.

The issue is because there of the lack of hard numbers, a lot of the discussion moves into speculation, and people misquoting things and the like, often not even intentionally just because they heard something in some thread and now think that is a true fact. So part of the discussion is to make sure the actual facts are getting circulated and picked up by those discussions.


Speaking personally, I have not been that impressed with 2024, and I have feared that it was not selling well. It has been heartening to hear quotes and facts that suggest the opposite, I'm glad to be proven wrong in this case and that the half edition is selling well. For some that is "not surprising", but every new set of rulebooks is a calculated risk, and there is always the risk that this is the time your audience goes "eh....not worth the money this time". I am glad that is not the case for 5.5e (at least so far), but would not have known had I not seen those facts and quotes circulated recently.

If we are talking preferences, the worse 2024 does, the better, becasue then maybe we will get an actual new edition.

But I don't have any way of knowing whether 2024 is doing well or not. I am running it and don't care for it, but am also burnt out on 5E broadly. I am enjoying Daggerheart, but would absolutely look into a new official D&D that tried to learn some of the same lessons.

As it is, like I said before, I think the more interesting discussion is the retrospective on the phenomenal growth D&D experienced through the life of 5E. I just wish we had more data we could use to build a picture.

 

[FrogReaver]

So we had making up number of players and assuming that only 1 in 5 people at the table buy the PHB. Now it's taking the statement that the 2024 PHB sold more copies on a month than the 2014 PHB to mean ... I think ... that the 2024 PHB has peaked and its all going to be downhill from here?

Doesn't all that spinning make people dizzy? It also seems to ignore that young people pick up the game all the time, the pool of people playing is not static.

We have no way of knowing what sales will be over a decade span because that would be the only real comparison for those that care. Heck, I like the game and I don't care as long as I can find people to play with.

But I just can't wrap my head around how we can turn the 2024 PHB selling far more than expected into a negative.

The only indicator I see that it sold more than expected is that gaming stores were having trouble keeping it stocked. The rest of the statements all sound more like post hoc spin to me. Not that I think it's doing badly, just that if you follow them logically, they don't actually tell you how it's doing in comparison, which is what we as fans are really curious about.

 

[TerraDave]

I do think there are a sizable group of people sticking with 5e 2014, I think more than WotC would like. Maybe.

And there are a lot of 2014 PHBs out there.

Still as far as I can tell 2024 is doing ok. We’ll see longer term, especially as peoples current campaigns end.

I don’t think 2024 PHB sales have crashed, come down certainly, but not disastrously so

In fact most may have stuck with 2014. But if 2024 did capture say 40% of that much bigger market in a year or so, then it would be a lot of sales.

 

[Parmandur]

5e has come, and peaked, and gone; and the book is now mostly closed on it.

5.5e's peak is most likely yet to come.

That assumes a sharp division not in evidence: 2014 era books are still on the marketplace. And are being actively marketed in new books (the new Forgotten Realms books apparently are actively selling the old APs thst are still evergreen sellers).