Ben Riggs: 'The Golden Age of TTRPGs is Dead'

Author of 'Slaying the Dragon' predicts an end to the current boom.

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Ben Riggs, D&D historian and author of Slaying the Dragon: A Secret History of Dungeons & Dragons has posted an essay widely on social media entitled 'The Golden Age of TTRPGs is Dead'.

Note that Riggs uses the term '6th Edition' in this essay to refer to the 2024 core D&D rulebooks but says that "I am by no means married to the 6E nomenclature. It's just shorter than saying "the new books coming out this year" again and again and again."

We are watching a bright and special time in the TTRPG industry pass away before our eyes.

Around the start of the 2010s, we saw the dawn of a new golden age of tabletop roleplaying games. Since then, huge numbers of new players have found the hobby thanks to Stranger Things and actual plays like Critical Role. These new fans discovered a vibrant and thrumming TTRPG industry. There was the D20 fantasy family of games, dominated by D&D 5E, but rich with other games published under the OGL and the fertile depths of the Old School Renaissance. There were other mainstream publishers with storied brands, such as Call of Cthulhu, Deadlands, and Shadowrun. Lastly, there was a flourishing indie TTRPG scene that revolutionized what a TTRPG was, such as Apocalypse World.

This influx of gamers created a rising tide that lifted all boats. Novice gamers started out playing D&D 5E, yes, but went on to discover other great games. Because of the OGL, countless companies and designers could make money creating for D&D 5E. Because of the increasing number of gamers, even strange, freaky, or weird TTRPG ideas could find an audience. Have you heard of Apollo 47 Technical Manual the RPG?

But recent developments make clear that this radiant golden age is ending, as surely as the steam engine ended the age of sail, or hobbits bearing a ring ended the Third Age of Middle-earth.

The Doom of Our Time Approaches

In the wake of the Open Gaming License scandal of this past winter, a number of companies have successfully launched new TTRPGs intended to move them past the possibility of Wizards of the Coast ever threatening their businesses ever again. Some of the games grossed millions in crowdfunding campaigns. All have been positively reviewed.

Some cite the success of these games, which are intended to replace 5E/OGL content for the companies involved, as signs of the continued health and growth of the TTRPG industry.

They are not.

Rather, they are signs that the industry has peaked, and may be about to enter a decline.

Why?

After the Open Gaming License crisis of 2023, I became pessimistic about the damage the attempt to kill the OGL had done to our hobby. Others told me that the result of the crisis would be the blooming of a thousand flowers. Discouraged from using 5E by Wizards of the Coast’s attempt to kill the OGL, we would all get amazing new TTRPGs.

Maybe every single one of those new TTRPGs is going to be amazing. Maybe every one will be so fun and so captivating that lawns will go unmowed, pets unfed, and diapers unchanged because we are all so busy playing one of those games.

The problem is the TTRPG business is devilishly difficult. Only very rarely does the creation of a phenomenal game actually lead to financial success.

And the death of the OGL and the creation of these games has fundamentally changed the industry in such a way that it will be harder for those companies to make money in the future. A difficult business is about to become more difficult.

Consider the state of the industry a mere eighteen months ago; countless publishers, from MCDM and Kobold Press to Wizards of the Coast, were all making 5E material; it was easy to purchase products from multiple publishers because if you were running 5E, you could use the work of all these companies at your table; this made it easier for companies to share customers.

The new TTRPGs birthed by the OGL crisis are about to make that sort of customer sharing much, much harder. MCDM is publishing a TTRPG where you roll 2D6 to hit. Pathfinder’s 2nd edition remaster has no alignment and changed ability scores. Critical Role has dropped 5E like a dead cockroach and is playtesting its own new fantasy game, Daggerheart, which uses 2D12s, and a horror game named Candela Obscura.

And of course, there is the rising Godzilla that is 6th edition D&D, which scientists say will attack our shores in the spring of 2024. So far, there is no hint of an OGL for whatever that game will be.

The problem is, 5E was not just a game. It was a massive community of players. Countless companies could thrive making products for that community.

These new games are a shattering of that community. Instead of countless companies working to make your 5E game better, they are now asking you to become MCDM, or Darrington Press, or Paizo, or D&D 6E players. We are entering an era of division, faction, and balkanization.

The companies are now asking fans to choose sides. It also means that it is going to become more difficult for them to share customers. How interested will a Pathfinder fan be in an MCDM product? Or 6th edition? History suggests these sorts of barriers depress sales.

All This Has Happened Before

In the 1990s, TSR, the first company to publish Dungeons & Dragons, embarked on publishing setting after setting after setting for the game. By 1997, over a dozen settings were sold by the company. Fans stopped being fans of D&D, and instead became fans of a particular setting, and would only buy products for that setting. In 1997, TSR was near death as setting releases had plummeted from the hundreds of thousands of copies in the 1980s, to a mere 7,152 copies sold for the Birthright campaign setting in its first year of release. D&D was only saved from a terrible fate by Wizards of the Coast and their fat stacks of cash. They purchased TSR in the summer of 1997.

Some might say it is unfair to compare the different settings of the 90s to the different systems of today. Settings and systems are different, after all. And I do agree with the point. Switching systems is a BIGGER ASK than switching settings, therefore this change should have a LARGER IMPACT ON SALES.

And it is all happening again. The TTRPG audience is fracturing at the seams, and it will hurt sales and growth.

To focus only on MCDM, this current BackerKit is likely the most successful campaign the company will ever see. Every campaign after this will struggle to get the same sort of sales numbers as people slowly bleed away to the competition. Paizo will say check out our competing fantasy game. WotC will batter us all with a punishing wave of marketing trying to convince all of us of the newness and hotness of D&D 6th edition. (May it be both new and hot! But I have my doubts…) And fans will bleed away.

Furthermore, what will happen to the YouTube channel that is the foundation of MCDM’s success? Matt Colville is a master communicator and was a major evangelist for D&D in his channel’s heyday. He is passionate, intelligent, and inspiring. If Dungeon Masters could go into the locker room and get a pep talk from their coach in the middle of a game of D&D, that coach would be Matt Colville.

How much time is Colville going to devote to D&D now that it is essentially his competition?

In the past year, he has put out less than 20 videos on his channel. Those videos now range widely in topic, from TV reviews and interviews with language scholars to some D&D content, and a discussion of the creation of his new RPG. Go back five years, and Colville was putting out video after video after video of fantastic advice about running D&D, usually with 5E as the default. He dispensed some of the best advice on TTRPGs I have ever seen.

But it appears his content is fundamentally shifting, and he is asking that his audience go with him somewhere new.

Let’s look at MCDM’s recent efforts from the point of view of Wizards of the Coast. It is all ruin, disaster, and calamity. Master communicator and D&D fanatic Matt Colville has gone from convincing people to try D&D, and explaining how best to play D&D, to instead asking his 439,000 subscribers to stop playing D&D and play his game instead.

Not to mention that Critical Role—a huge reason for the recent surge in popularity of D&D—is likewise stopping their support of D&D, and asking their 2.1 million YouTube subscribers to start playing one of their two new games instead. I will not mention that, lest it further trouble the sleep of the D&D people at Wizards of the Coast… (What if 2.1 million people simply don’t buy 6th edition?)

In summary, all these events are interfering with the developments that created the golden age of TTRPGs. The removal of D&D from Critical Role likely hurts everyone involved. For years, Critical Role’s pitch was “Watch voice actors play D&D!” (A concept even my 80-year-old Aunt Sonja understands.) Now, the pitch is “Watch voice actors play Candela Obscura!”

But what is Candela Obscura? (If asked, Aunt Sonja might guess Candela Obscura was a potpourri scent.) The brand recognition that drove people to Critical Role is gone.

Simultaneously, the splintering of the D&D 5E community will make it harder for new designers to break into the industry, and harder for established companies to attract new customers. Growth in the TTRPG field will slow.

What the Future Might Look Like

And if I’m right, and this is how the golden age of TTRPGs dies, certain things follow naturally from these events. Here are my predictions—Prophecies?—that I may be held accountable for my rashness in writing all this down. I may be wrong, but if I’m right, the following things seem likely to pass:
  • Sixth edition will not do as well as 5th edition. Even more firings will follow. Wizards, which struggled to know what to do with D&D when it was a success (No Honor Among Thieves Starter Set? Really?) will be flummoxed by what to do with it when it is perceived as a failure.
  • No MCDM RPG crowdfunding campaign will ever do better than this initial campaign to fund its TTRPG.
  • Kobold Press’s post-OGL game, Tales of the Valiant, has been criticized for being too similar to 5E. For Kobold Press, I see two futures. Perhaps they will slowly bleed fans in the same way that MCDM will. But if D&D 6th edition is too different, and people really don’t want to move on from 5E, Kobold has positioned themselves to be the next Paizo, and Tales of the Valiant, the next Pathfinder.
  • The frequency of million-dollar TTRPG Kickstarters will decrease.
  • Attendance at major gaming conventions will plateau.
  • TTRPGs will become less interesting. Less exciting. Less creative. And despite all the new systems, it will also grow less diverse as it becomes even harder to make money in a TTRPG community broken into factions.
And so a golden age ends sputters out.

Unless something truly dramatic and game-changing hits the industry.

What could change this grim future? I suppose a group of publishers coalescing around a single system might change matters.

Or something truly inconceivable, something like giving 6th edition D&D an OGL, or putting the rules in the Creative Commons.

And after last month’s blood sacrifices upon the altar of profitability, who is even left at Wizards with the power and experience to advocate for such a thing?

It has been a grand era to be a gamer, one which we have been fortunate to live through.


There are a few inaccuracies in the essay--Critical Role does still play D&D, for example.

Numerous industry professionals have also posted thoughts in response, some agreeing and others disagreeing--you can see their comments on the original Facebook post, which is publicly viewable.

Mike Mearls, who was laid off from WotC a few weeks ago responded "WRONG! The age of fixating on one company and its decisions is dead. Now the audience is in the driver's seat. Let us hope they hit the gas."

Shannon Appelcline, of Designers & Dragons fame, said that he thought "the reports of the OGL's death are greatly exaggerated." He went on to say that fandom has kept WotC "from destroying the Golden Age".

Keith Strohm, D&D brand manager in the early 2000s, and later COO of Paizo, commented that it was "an exceptionally astute analysis" and that it was like "watching history repeat itself". He talked about the intent of the OGL and ended by saying "I don't want to be a prophet of doom, so I'm rooting for all of these companies, many of whom are either founded by or employ my friends and colleagues. However, I wouldn't launch a new system in this current environment."

Marvel Multiverse RPG designer Matt Forbeck said that "It might herald the end of a golden age of D&D, but other games may yet thrive".

Industry veteran Owen KC Stephens remarked "This is a well-considered, well-reasoned analysis. I disagree with almost all of it."

James Lowder, who directed various lines for TSR in the 80s and 90s, feels that "It's a Second Golden Age for game design and variety." He commented on WotC's possible plans for a digital-first edition of D&D--"If Hasbro/WotC tries to make the new edition a subscription-based, highly monetized walled garden, with radically increased direct-to-consumer sales, they will likely blight the market and the hobby--this is likely to happen whether they succeed or fail. This kind of move will roll back the overall audience for everyone and could well remove RPGs from many stores that rely on D&D sales in order to justify devoting the shelf space to RPGs."
 

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The author misses that many fans of 5E aren't even aware of the OGL crisis and didn't PF2 get rid of attributes in its first printing?
On top of that is that there is a ton of money in the OSR which has benefitted from WotC's shenanigans. The OGL ensures that you can support any version of DnD you want without supporting WotC.
 

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payn

I don't believe in the no-win scenario
The author misses that many fans of 5E aren't even aware of the OGL crisis and didn't PF2 get rid of attributes in its first printing?
On top of that is that there is a ton of money in the OSR which has benefitted from WotC's shenanigans. The OGL ensures that you can support any version of DnD you want without supporting WotC.
The PF2-R changes have zero mechanical impact. They left ability scores and alignment in 2019 to not upset legacy, which turned out to not be a big deal after all. I just checked this off as more incendiary comments by the author like calling 5E 2024 a 6th edition.
 

2024 could be the year of a lot of radical changes, and the end of an age in lots of things, and even it may be the end of the "golden age" for WotC but now the TTRPG industry is making more money than ever thanks internet and VTT. If the relaunch or remake of Hero Quest is working, because there are new expansions, what about sourcebooks sold online or sent by Amazon or other delivery companies?

Thanks open licence lots of publishers can survive for a time, more than trying their own systems.

Maybe some online multiplayer videogames will offer a VTT mode as option (and also tools to create your own machinimas).

The golden days of White Wolf's World of Darkness ended time ago, but the franchise is still alive. Transformers were almost forgotten until Michael Bay's movies. My Little Pony was a totally dead franchise, until the remake whose success and popularity was a surprise for a lot of folk. For a time the TNMT(ninja turtles) weren't the stars they are now.

Forgotten Realms could suffer "fatigue" in the future, but not all the eggs are in only a basket. D&D is also other lines like Dragonlance, Raveloft or Spelljammer. If WotC doesn't publish Dark Sun or a spiritual succesor, then this will be by other.
 

bedir than

Full Moon Storyteller
From what I've been able to find, the number became sixty million because Kyle Newman seemed to feel like it that's what it should be now.
To be fair to Kyle, he first mentioned the 60 million number last year while he was working on the history of 5e project with WotC.
He was absolutely in a position to know and his phrasing on the number seems to be centered on the present day, not the past, as the WotC number of 50 million was several years prior.
 

Parmandur

Book-Friend, he/him
To be fair to Kyle, he first mentioned the 60 million number last year while he was working on the history of 5e project with WotC.
He was absolutely in a position to know and his phrasing on the number seems to be centered on the present day, not the past, as the WotC number of 50 million was several years prior.
Does anyone have Legends & Lore on hand to see if they discuss this?
 

Umbran

Mod Squad
Staff member
Supporter
So, do we know why that number was upgraded to 60M?

In a word, no, we don't.

The most probable answer should be more players than the last time, however they measure that

There are folks who have been doing "archaeology" as you call it - piecing together sales information from the TSR years that was sketchy and/or unavailable to the public, so I wouldn't count on all the increase to be new players.

We should note that the original quote isn't from an academic research paper or something. They were statements of "50 to 60 million" and "more than 50 million". Those are vague and broad statements, not precision reporting. Putting on critical reading glasses, the slide from those to saying just 60 million could be modest updates to the number (real growth and/or updates on historical sales) that flips them from rounding down to rounding up.

We can also note that, even if it is all "growth", it is growth in an overall historical total, which is not actually market growth, or growth of current player base. If you added 10 million new players, that number would rise, even if you also had 10 million also drop out of the hobby.

Without a more clear discussion from those who made the statement, I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it. It was marketing, not data.
 

Autumnal

Bruce Baugh, Writer of Fortune
I keep coming back to something a British Booktuber said about the 2023 Trans Pride Day in London. She said that wandering through the crowd, you could hear a constant flow of conversation about two topics: people’s trans experiences, and their D&D characters and campaigns.

D&D has become a presence in the lives of a bunch of communities that may or not be visible or accessible to others. Lots of them are not gamers; they just play D&D with friends. What I mean by “not gamers” is that it’s not a huge part of their lives and not a significant party of their identity - if you ask them about what sort of person they are in I-am statements, roleplaying games won’t be on the list, or will be low on it and lightweight.

People who are playing but are not gamers in sense of self have their own priorities and wishes. That doesn’t matter for most RPGs, just because the game’s total audience isn’t that large and almost always more contained within the gamer ecosystem. D&D’s uniquely large audience makes those non-gamer communities significant. And I’m pretty solidly convinced that doomsaying like Riggs’ is not considering.
 
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Swanosaurus

Adventurer
Wow, I must confess that this article makes me a bit angry. It comes across as if role-playing was all about D&D5 and its community; commercially, that may be close to the truth, but my perspective on my hobby is not a commercial one, and my definition of a "Golden Age" is not dependant on how much money is made with something. To me, as someone who never got into D&D and isn't that comfortable with a LOT of the core assumptions that come with D&D (levelling, classes, spell-slot magic, tons of magic items, the three-encounter day ...), the "Golden Age" that Riggs describes feels rather stifling, with a lot of RPG authors trying to fit their ideas into the 5th Edition mold in the hopes of turning a dime instead of being true to their vision (and I dare say most of them probably still don't get a lot out of going with 5e, financially, because there is such of flood of 5e products, how are you going to stick out?). My heart bleeds every time I see a settings that feels like an original idea has been mutilated to make it "5e compatible".
To me, the Golden Age of RPGs lies in the maybe relatively modest success of games like Troika, Mothership, Cloud Empress, in the resurgence of RuneQuest (which may be clunky as hell, but which also is an organic whole with a vision that could never sucessfully be duplicated by any 5e product, 13th Age in Glorantha be damned!), in the slow but steady development of Pelgrane Press' Gumshoe Engine games, in the fusion of core principles of Traveller and D&D into the beautifully simple Barbarians of Lemuria system, which, by now, forms the basis of a whole family of RPGs ...

I guess for Riggs all of this is marginal, just some splashes created by the death throes of the Golden Age of RPGs. To me, all of this IS the Golden Age of RPGs, and if the 5e monoculture breaks apart, I'll welcome the breath of fresh air, commercial success be damned. Claiming that RPGs will become less interesting, less exciting and less creative only makes sense if the only thing that ever interests you are 5e products.
 

MGibster

Legend
The OGL debacle was bad, but at then end of the day, I don't know that anyone can predict what the long term consequences will be. Here's an anecdote: I game with nine people between two groups, and less than half of them had even heard about it during the whole thing.
I've long held to the belief that the vast majority of people who play games couldn't care less about the issues that are popular on message boards. If I asked the average D&D player to tell me what the deal was with Orion Black's experience with WotC, their likely reponse will be "Orion Who?" or "Isn't Orion Black a D&D character?" This isn't to say the issues we care about are unimportant, just that they don't necessarily represent most table top RPG players.
D&D has become a presence in the lives of a bunch of communities that may or not be visible or accessible to others. Lots of them are not gamers; they just play D&D with friends. What I mean by “not gamers” is that it’s not a huge part of their lives and not a significant party of their identity - if you ask them about what sort of person they are in I-am statements, roleplaying games won’t be on the list, or will be low on it and lightweight.
And that describes several people in my own game group. They're happy to sit down and play D&D or several other games, but they generally don't follow gaming news or care much about what's happening on the corporate level. i.e. They don't care how the sausage is made.
 

bedir than

Full Moon Storyteller
They were statements of "50 to 60 million" and "more than 50 million". Those are vague and broad statements, not precision reporting. Putting on critical reading glasses, the slide from those to saying just 60 million could be modest updates to the number (real growth and/or updates on historical sales) that flips them from rounding down to rounding up.
Those two versions of the number appear at very different times.

One is from a third-party historian hired by WotC to produce semi-historical works making the statement in 2023.

The other first appeared in WotC marketing/financial speak early in the pandemic period, about three years prior.

A very simple reason for 60 to appear three years later, and justifiable when compared to search results and public sales numbers as well as growth on digital platforms that release the data would be that nearly 10 million more people are actively playing the game.
 

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