Buying D&D

[Meloncov]

I suspect the game is worth significantly less then the brand as a whole: I suspect D&D CRPGs and D&D novels make more money than the game itself.

 

[Umbran]

I suspect the game is worth significantly less then the brand as a whole:

This is a very important point. How much they sold in D&D gamign products is only a portion of the brand's value. The brand, as a whole, is worth several years of what you can earn by putting the brand on a thing - be it gaming products, novels, comic books, TV shows, movies, miniatures, etc.

 

[diaglo]

Just to clarify...I believe that WotC bought the entirety of TSR, although, from a value standpoint, that largely consisted of D&D.

i think this also included other companies too under the umbrella. Avalon Hill for one.

 

[Nifft]

I suspect the game is worth significantly less then the brand as a whole: I suspect D&D CRPGs and D&D novels make more money than the game itself.

And let's not forget the D&D movies!

... oh wait. Let's do exactly that.

-- N

 

[Numion]

And let's not forget the D&D movies!

... oh wait. Let's do exactly that.

Too true ..

 

[Maggan]

Does anyone know what kind of revenues WotC is bringing in (and what their free cash flows are) to justify that?

By way of comparison, SJ Games brought in $2.4 million last year

I like making unfounded statements on message boards. So I'll make up some numbers and see if I end up somewhere fun. Doubtless someone will inform me that I don't have any facts to back this up, that I'm committing several major sins for speculating without license, and that the numbers I'm basing this on are crap.

Which I already know. I'm pulling all these numbers out of my ears, but feel free to take the field anyway!

Here we go ...

SJG is bringing in 2.4 million dollars. That was mainly from Munchkin (55%) and GURPS. No number for GURPS is given, but let's be generous and say that it makes up the rest of the gross.

That means GURPS pulled in 1,08 million dollars.

Let's say that they managed to snatch 3% of the market (according to really old and totally unreliable numbers compiled with great gusto by Kenneth Hite, for 2005). Let's say that this is the same as last year.

This means that the total grossed by RPGs is 36 million dollars. Which tallies somewhat with Hites estimation of between 20 and 40 million dollars value for the total RPG market.

According to the same column by Hite, D&D accounts for 53% of the roleplaying market share.

So, 53% of 36 million is ... hmmmm ... 19,08 million dollars that D&D the RPG brought in last year. And WotC would have to sell around 650 000 books to bring in the 19,08 millions. With two books per month released, let's say 24 per year, if all books pulled collectively (which they don't) they would have to sell 27 000 copies each. Hmmm ... I always figured the numbers would be higher.

EDIT: as pointed out below, WotC only gets about 10 bucks of a book costing 30 dollars, which changes the numbers a bit. It would mean that they sell over 100 000 of each book, which sounds more plausible.

Let's also say they've got a 10% profit margin (because you can't make money on rpgs, or so I'm told), means that the cost for running the D&D RPG brand would be somewhere around 16 to 17 million dollars per year.

So 30 million for the D&D license ... hmmmm ... maybe. It's expensive to run it so anyone would have to have more money on hand than 30 million ...

Heh, okay the numbers are bad, and my calculations are probably wrong, but maybe at least my thought experiment has given som vague indication as to the magnitude of money D&D the RPG could bring in.

/M

 

[mmadsen]

So, 53% of 36 million is ... hmmmm ... 19,08 million dollars that D&D the RPG brought in last year. And that WotC would have to sell around 650 000 books to bring in the 19,08 millions. With two books per month released, let's say 24 per year, if all books pulled collectively (which they don't) they would have to sell 27 000 copies each. Hmmm ... I always figured the numbers would be higher.

Let's also say they've got a 10% profit margin (because you can't make money on rpgs, or so I'm told), means that the cost for running the D&D RPG brand would be somewhere around 16 to 17 million dollars per year.

Excellent work, Maggan. Thanks. So, as a first stab, D&D brings in around $20 million in revenues and keeps about $2 million. That doesn't justify $30 million by a long shot, so there must be substantial earnings -- say, $4 million more -- coming from somewhere else (e.g. licensing).

 

[Maggan]

Excellent work, Maggan. Thanks. So, as a first stab, D&D brings in around $20 million in revenues and keeps about $2 million. That doesn't justify $30 million by a long shot, so there must be substantial earnings -- say, $4 million more -- coming from somewhere else (e.g. licensing).

My flawed analysis did not include D&D Minis. That is very, very important to take into consideration when it comes to the value of the D&D brand.

/M

 

[Desdichado]

That doesn't justify $30 million by a long shot, so there must be substantial earnings -- say, $4 million more -- coming from somewhere else (e.g. licensing).

I'd bet the novels alone are a lot more than that. The D&D branded computer games probably are too. Assuming Maggan's numbers are even in the same ballpark as reality, I'd speculate that the novel and computer/video game revenues each outpace that of the game itself, meaning that $30 mil for D&D is probably grossly underestimated.

But that's complete guesswork.

 

[Maggan]

I'd bet the novels alone are a lot more than that. The D&D branded computer games probably are too. Assuming Maggan's numbers are even in the same ballpark as reality, I'd speculate that the novel and computer/video game revenues each outpace that of the game itself, meaning that $30 mil for D&D is probably grossly underestimated.

But that's complete guesswork.

So what is under the D&D umbrella brand:

D&D Minis
D&D RPG
D&D Computer games (such as Neverwinter Nights)
D&D Novels
D&D Merchandise (dice bags, t-shirts, memorabilia)
D&D Movies

Hmmmm ... anything else with the D&D brand on it?

/M