Can computers predict which movies will flop?

[Firebeetle]

Movie with a big penguin budget

For one of them, it's entirely explicable. Penguins man! Penguins! They just charm the socks off of people. Don't be surprised if Hollywood catches on, and instead of having big special effects budgets, they start having big penguin budgets.

Already done, a movie with a big penguin budget.

http://www2.warnerbros.com/happyfeet/

Penguins are apparently having a cultural renaissance. Having said that, I loved March of the Penguins Go Penguins.

 

[Firebeetle]

Let it happen

Just wait for all the clones,

March of the Cats,
March of the dogs
Flight of the Birds
Single File line of the Lemmings
Running of the Turtles


Just watch.

I would NOT mind more documentaries. Nature documentaries, Bowling for Columbine, Supersize Me, I love that stuff. Let the March of Whatever clones begin!

 

[Dark Jezter]

Seriously, the most difficult films I find predicting (straight up as a flop or success) are things like Saw II, The Dukes of Hazzard, March of the Penguins, and Herbie: Fully Loaded which, to me, are doing inexplicably well.

Huh. Based on everything I've heard, Herbie: Fully Loaded was a tremendous flop. I recall reading that it had a lower box office gross than any other movie that opened on as many screens as it did.

Count me in as somebody who loved The Dukes of Hazzard. I know it's not freakin' Lord of the Rings, but honestly: who would expect it to be? The original TV series was about southerners and car chases, and the movie was also about southerners and car chases. It didn't try to be anything more than that.

 

[Hand of Evil]

Huh. Based on everything I've heard, Herbie: Fully Loaded was a tremendous flop. I recall reading that it had a lower box office gross than any other movie that opened on as many screens as it did.

Count me in as somebody who loved The Dukes of Hazzard. I know it's not freakin' Lord of the Rings, but honestly: who would expect it to be? The original TV series was about southerners and car chases, and the movie was also about southerners and car chases. It didn't try to be anything more than that.

Herbie numbers: (Buget: 50 Million)
Domestic: $66,023,816 45.8%
+ Overseas: $78,110,000 54.2%
-------------------------------
= Worldwide: $144,133,816

 

[Dark Jezter]

Herbie numbers: (Buget: 50 Million)
Domestic: $66,023,816 45.8%
+ Overseas: $78,110,000 54.2%
-------------------------------
= Worldwide: $144,133,816

Well, I guess I stand corrected.

 

[Hand of Evil]

Well, I guess I stand corrected.

The number surprised me too...

as for Dukes: (50 Mill Budget)
...Domestic: $80,270,227 72.6%
+ Overseas: $30,324,566 27.4%
----------------------------------
= Worldwide: $110,594,793

 

[LightPhoenix]

Really I havnt a clue what you could possibly mean, but I guess the left coast is just strange to those people not in it, or what I suspect more likely, portrayed badly and a whipping boy for whatever they dont like.

I'm going to go out on a limb here (and hopefully not fall off) and say that's not at all what was meant by Joshua, so no need to get defensive.

I think he was alluding to the cultural differences between the two coastal regions, being the West Coast and the Northeast. Completely leaving out the South and Midwest, perhaps a bit unintentionally. Those cultural differences between those areas mean a lot, they're not trivial, and they very much do affect how something does.

And I find it just a touch ironic that you mention multi-culturalism but feel the need to get defensive.

 

[WayneLigon]

[RE: Herbie: ] Well, I guess I stand corrected.

I never would have, either. Very surprised. It lasted perhaps a week here.

 

[Chaldfont]

I don't think current computer programs can predict success--otherwise the computers the studios currently use to crank out all that crap would be producing good movies.

 

[Desdichado]

I think he was alluding to the cultural differences between the two coastal regions, being the West Coast and the Northeast. Completely leaving out the South and Midwest, perhaps a bit unintentionally. Those cultural differences between those areas mean a lot, they're not trivial, and they very much do affect how something does.

Indeed; I'm not making any value judgements about any point of view, just stating that they're different. It really should be no surprise; for empircal data to support my theory look to the last Presidential election results, and especially exit polls. There is a real substantial regional cultural difference between the Coasts and kinda the rest of "mainstream" America.

And I find it just a touch ironic that you mention multi-culturalism but feel the need to get defensive.

Indeed²