COVID, as I understand the term from above, is an acute problem. Eventually it will go away. And yes, businesses can go bankrupt because of acute problems.
Studio consolidation is a monopoly problem. If the studios didn't want to promote streaming over theatres, they would not have demanded 65% of the revenue. Back before the internet, theatre chains had a tight grip of movies. (They didn't quite have a monopoly.) But technology has changed that and they are suffering for it.
But I would not call this a systemic problem. This is expected behaviour within the system, not a problem caused by the system.
I feel that we are speaking past each other when it comes to language.
Let's look at something like Uber.
If an Uber driver assaults a passenger, resulting in bad press and ensuing decline in revenues and share price, that is an acute problem. It is a relatively isolated problem.
If Uber has a toxic corporate culture that exposes it to workplace liability, that too may be an acute problem that can be fixed through management changes. If such changes do not fix the problem, that problem may become a systemic problem.
Additionally, if Uber's business model relies on paying its drivers under an "independent contractor" model as opposed to as a "W2 employee" and a jurisdiction determines through statute or court ruling that the drivers are W2 employees, that's also a systemic problem. The company cannot function within that system.
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And the studios didn't want to promote streaming because of ease of piracy. Transmission of files to exhibitors is far more secure. Why the 65% squeeze play? Because if an exhibitor doesn't have Disney movies, it doesn't have movies. It doesn't have Marvel. It doesn't have Star Wars. It doesn't have Pixar. It doesn't have Disney. Disney had the advantage, not the exhibitors. And if AMC, Regal, and Carmike all got together to strategize how to counter, that could run afoul of anti-collusion laws. And none of them alone are big enough to fight back.
Yeah - sucks to not have a monopoly.
As for streaming, well, how much do they make? No one knows. There have only really been two examples:
Mulan and
Wonder Woman 84. Disney CEO gave no figures on performance during the November earnings call, saying only that he was "pleased" with
Mulan's performance. The next experiment is
Soul, which won't be in an earnings call until Q2 at least.
Ultimately, theaters have several problem. The acute problem of COVID and how to remain solvent with crippled income. There is also a systemic problem with how to remain solvent with rising costs and lower returns due to studio consolidation. And there is a second systemic problem with whether, due to technology, theaters can generate sufficient demand for their product - the theater experience.
People may line up around the block in July and December to see the Avengers and the Star Wars gang but the theater still needs to pay the rent all the other months of the year.
Bottom line: I think we agree. Movie theaters may not survive. I think we disagree on the cause of potential death.