College Football 2006

[drothgery]

It's too early to say, really.

Guesses -

1. If USC or Cal wins out, they will be in the BCS title game, because they'll be top-5 in the polls and #2 in the computers (the computers love the Pac 10).

2. An undefeated Rutgers' shot at the BCS title game is nowhere near as hopeless as many seem to think. However, it does depend on there being no clear favorite among the one-loss teams remaining, and probably on both USC and Cal losing again (because of the edge they've got in the computers, mentioned above). If Texas, Auburn, Arkansas, Louisville, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Wake, and Michigan are all sitting at 11-1 at the end of the year (which would require no major upsets, and only a few minor ones), then I'd bet Rutgers is playing Ohio State for all the marbles because the supporters for the one-loss teams will be divided.

3. I suspect at least some pollsters will tweak their ballot to try and prevent rematches in the BCS title game by ranking teams that have already lost to the OSU/Michigan winner lower than they would otherwise; if OSU beats Michigan, this is bad news for Michigan and Texas. If Michigan wins, it's bad for ND, OSU, and Wisconsin.

4. Boise has no shot, because their strength of schedule is just too low, so they won't get any help from the computers; they'd only get into the mix if all the major contenders had two losses.

 

[Crothian]

It's too early to say, really.

It's always too earlier, that's what makes it fun!!

 

[Dimwhit]

It's too early to say, really.

Guesses -

1. If USC or Cal wins out, they will be in the BCS title game, because they'll be top-5 in the polls and #2 in the computers (the computers love the Pac 10).

Certainly possible. The Pac-10 is a very good conference. East Coast bias tends to get down on the Pac-10, but I think it's one of, if not the, best conference this year.

2. An undefeated Rutgers' shot at the BCS title game is nowhere near as hopeless as many seem to think. However, it does depend on there being no clear favorite among the one-loss teams remaining, and probably on both USC and Cal losing again (because of the edge they've got in the computers, mentioned above). If Texas, Auburn, Arkansas, Louisville, Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Wake, and Michigan are all sitting at 11-1 at the end of the year (which would require no major upsets, and only a few minor ones), then I'd bet Rutgers is playing Ohio State for all the marbles because the supporters for the one-loss teams will be divided.

Honestly, I don't agree. Rutgers is just too far being. The one-loss fans will be divided, but I don't think any will put Rutgers up to No. 2. Even the computers. We'll see, but I just don't think it's doable.

3. I suspect at least some pollsters will tweak their ballot to try and prevent rematches in the BCS title game by ranking teams that have already lost to the OSU/Michigan winner lower than they would otherwise; if OSU beats Michigan, this is bad news for Michigan and Texas. If Michigan wins, it's bad for ND, OSU, and Wisconsin.

Agreed. And I'm glad. No one wants a rematch. Except for the fans of the teams in question.

4. Boise has no shot, because their strength of schedule is just too low, so they won't get any help from the computers; they'd only get into the mix if all the major contenders had two losses.

Completely agree. And for the record, no one here in Boise even thinks they should go. We all think they should go to a BCS bowl, but definitely not the championship game.

 

[johnsemlak]

I'd love to see Rutgers or Boise ghet a chance but they won't. I think an undefeated team should play over a one lose team.

That would fair, but the reality is those teams would get smothered.

 

[drothgery]

Honestly, I don't agree. Rutgers is just too far being. The one-loss fans will be divided, but I don't think any will put Rutgers up to No. 2. Even the computers. We'll see, but I just don't think it's doable.

If I understand the computers correctly, I'm pretty sure only that with one loss, only USC and Cal could end up ahead of an undefeated Rutgers (although I really expect them to lose their season finale at West Virginia to render this discussion moot) in most of them (assuming West Virginia loses to no one else before their season finale); the computers likely won't be a problem.

And I really think that, at the end of the year, there's going to be a significant set of pollsters that think an undefeated major conference champion with victories over two top-10 teams really does deserve to be #2 ahead of one of the gaggle of one-loss teams.

That would fair, but the reality is those teams would get smothered.

So? Sometimes someone gets smothered in BCS title games even when both teams have impeccable pedigrees (see USC vs. Oklahoma a few years back). I don't think it's true of Rutgers, though; going into last night's game they had the #2 defense in college football in both yards per game and points per game.

 

[Crothian]

Auburn goes down first. What other one lose teams won't make it?

 

[Aeson]

Auburn goes down first. What other one lose teams won't make it?

And who beat them? That's right UGA. GO Bulldogs. I know they haven't done much to be proud of this year but this is one to cheer about.

 

[Crothian]

Both Florida and Cal are having problems. What a week for football!!

 

[Crothian]

Boise survives!! I know we were all on the edge of our seats for that one. Actually, I was shocked it was a game!!

 

[Dimwhit]

Boise survives!! I know we were all on the edge of our seats for that one. Actually, I was shocked it was a game!!

Yeah, I'm about to watch it (had to record it while I put in a bathroom floor). This and the Wyoming games are good examples of the defense stepping up when the offense in floundering.