Balkanization was unavoidable as soon as the ORC was proposed, because not everyone will want to go with it. We were guaranteed to get at least 3, and realistically more like at least 4, distinct camps:I hate to say it, but I fear that the answer is yes.
I foresee a balkanization coming, where products are released under the OGL, ORC, and CC, and it becomes harder for publishers to reuse each other's content, as products published under one license can't have their material (easily) reused under another.
- Those sticking with WotC and whatever OGL it came up with. Critical Role was probably going to be stuck here, regardless of their feelings on the matter, because they'd already hitched their cart to WotC's horses.
- Those switching to Paizo's ORC and hoping to create the new community core.
- Those refusing to participate in any of these licenses and trying to go it alone
- Those refusing to recognize WotC's "de-authorization" of OGL 1.0a and thus sticking with the old license regardless
The balkanization was a foregone conclusion the moment WotC announced their desire to alter the OGL, because that was going to incense Paizo and lead to ORC. We may as well celebrate that the core notions of D&D are now indefinitely accessible and thus even if WotC goes belly up, no one can try to vault it or hoard it like a dragon.