D&D 5E Crystal Ball: A year in, how do you think 5E will unfold going forward?

[Parmandur]

For you.

Indubitably. You are probably wrong on the OGL front, there will be some sort of license. But what they are doing now? Much better than previous strategies.

 

[hbarsquared]

Speculation, especially considerimg D&D's current state and what WotC is obviously keeping secret/close to the vest, is difficult, at best.

So this is a combination of divining/desiring.

2016-2018: one FR "AP" book, one <new campaign setting> (Dragonlance/Eberron, etc) "AP" book. With free pdf download conversions of 3e/old material. Eberron will be the first non-FR AP.

Dragon+ remaining limited in scope, with substantial advertising of cross-brand platforms, and still free. Dungeon+ (in some format) at a price for single adventures/one-shots to satisfy those not interested in hardbound APs. I don't see "modules/adventures" ever being published again at 15.99-19.99 a pop.

Basic online pdfs updated every 1-2 years, and new a new "printing" including errata within 4. I believe they will stick to "adding an optoon instead of revising an established one."

We won't see good, morningstar-promised, WotC sactioned apps for at least another year, if ever. Why? 1) people will either play D&D or not - an app has never been, or ever will, be a gamebreaker, and will lukely never change net sales of core or AP books. 2) 3rd party eill always do it for free (to WotC). As long as an SRD/OGL opens up, there is no business incentive for WotC to put in all that much effort into an app.

A fan-content OGL restricted to Basic, possibly calling out free pdfs. Nothing 3rd party published modifying Basic. Ie, only used as a reference (adventures and apps), but not own material (creature catalogs, pathfinder rules).

My initial thoughts.

 

[Shasarak]

There have been plenty of threads, including one or three that I've started, about what WotC should or shouldn't do, what we like or don't like about what we see so far, and so forth, but what I don't see a lot of--except for a stray post here and there scattered amidst everything else--is what people think will actually happen. So here's your chance to share your divining powers: How do you think 5E will unfold? What will the edition cycle look like? What sort of products will we see? Whither the OGL? And so forth.

If experience has taught me nothing over the last year, it is that I am far too optimistic in what I want to see to be able to predict anything.

 

[Kramodlog]

Speculation, especially considerimg D&D's current state and what WotC is obviously keeping secret/close to the vest, is difficult, at best.

That period is over. At least for everything not digital. And that excludes SCL.

I mean they announced all that is coming out this year in one big press release. I'm guessing they are doing this because they know what they announce will come out. The core books are out, so a lot less work and uncertainties at the WotC HQ when it comes to D&D.

For digital stuff they might keep things close to their chest. After Dungeonscape and 4e's VTT, they probably want to avoid announcing stuff that won't come out. For the RPG, we'll hear about it about 6 months in advance? I'm willin to be that at GenCon they announce the AP that comes after Rage over Drizzt.

 

[Parmandur]

That period is over. At least for everything not digital. And that excludes SCL.



I mean they announced all that is coming out this year in one big press release. I'm guessing they are doing this because they know what they announce will come out. The core books are out, so a lot less work and uncertainties at the WotC HQ when it comes to D&D.



For digital stuff they might keep things close to their chest. After Dungeonscape and 4e's VTT, they probably want to avoid announcing stuff that won't come out. For the RPG, we'll hear about it about 6 months in advance? I'm willin to be that at GenCon they announce the AP that comes after Rage over Drizzt.

They announced one book, they did not say it would be the only one. But even if it is, no biggie. Still tons more material released than most groups can use.

 

[Corpsetaker]

Given what they seem to be doing business-wise, I expect their response to that would be "Good. Working as intended."

Want to remind me again how that is good for business?

If I am going elsewhere with my money, how is that good for Wizards?

 

[Parmandur]

Want to remind me again how that is good for business?



If I am going elsewhere with my money, how is that good for Wizards?

Good business is not going after every dollar, it is maximizing return on investment. Putting out a ton of books that a few buy is inferior to producing a few books that many buy. And the current team has indicated an appreciation that an open license does allow those few to be served at zero investment, while continuing to grow the brand.

 

[Kramodlog]

They announced one book, they did not say it would be the only one. But even if it is, no biggie. Still tons more material released than most groups can use.

Nathan Stewart said that everything will be connected to the storyline. Why would they not announce a book connected to the storyline when they announced the kitchen sink that comes with the storyline?

And I'm not sure what sort of strategy it is to announce one book and keep the other a surprise. Promo helps sell stuff. And I'm pretty sure selling stuff is what they want. That and spread Pagan Magic.

 

[Parmandur]

Nathan Stewart said that everything will be connected to the storyline. Why would they not announce a book connected to the storyline when they announced the kitchen sink that comes with the storyline?



And I'm not sure what sort of strategy it is to announce one book and keep the other a surprise. Promo helps sell stuff. And I'm pretty sure selling stuff is what they want. That and spread Pagan Magic.

*shrug* more than one way to skin a cat.

 

[graves3141]

I'm done thinking we'll get campaign setting books or even additional monster manuals. The only think we can probably count on is one or two APs a year and that's it friends. Dragon+ will stick around for whatever that's worth. We might get conversion documents later on this year, but even that's a big maybe at this point.

I wonder about the OGL... the longer we go without one the more I feel it's less likely we'll ever see it. If I had to make a wild guess, I'd say it ain't happening. I'd also wager that the "big" Gencon release will be underwhelming to say the least.

I predict that 5E will be the core books and the APs and that's it. It sucks but that's all we're getting this time around.