Alzrius said:
From what I understand, the OGL (and d20 STL) cannot be dropped; it's written in there somewhere that they cannot be removed. If worse coms to worse and D&D dies completely (as some people have
postulated), third parties will still be able to release compatible products.
Not quite true. D&D is not under the OGL (Open Gaming License), the only thing under the OGL is the SRD, which is a subset of the current D&D rules. If/when 4E comes out, it is NOT automatically under the OGL. To be under the OGL, somebody at WotC would have to create another SRD and release it under the license. Thus if they do not do that, then no third party products can be made for it (at least not without special licensing.
Now, the 3.5 SRD cannot be removed from the OGL (though WotC can remove it from the internet and made it harder for others to reference by doing so) according to the license, but this is a license that has not been tested in court, so it is still a gamble (albeit a very small one, but a gamble still).
Alzrius said:
Of course, restrictions could be added. Just look at the case of the clause regarding the "wholesomeness" (or whatever it was called) that was added to the d20 STL in reaction to the Book of Erotic Fantasy. Of course, the flipside is that (again, what I understand) this can only be done to the d20 STL itself, and not the OGL...and that the only practical difference in the two is that one lets you use the d20 logo.
Correct, the d20STL can be changed, or pulled altogether. And if pulled, then they can force those companies using the logo to destroy their products, which can and most likely will kill a number of companies, especially smaller ones. There are actually a lot of companies relying less and less on the d20 logo though, so maybe it won't be so bad.
One thing that many folks may not realize though is that the OGL may be pulled from a specific company for violations as well. And if it gets pulled, the license is pulled for ALL products a company produces, not just the ones in violation. There is a 30 day grace period for said violations to get fixed, and then WotC/Hasbro can for the company to detroy all OGL products as well. The catch here is that many OGL products are in violation of the OGL through their OGL/PI declarations. Heck, not that long ago, I pointed out that Arcana Evolved was in violation of the OGL, and then Phil Reed pointed out that Iron Heroes was as well. Unclear declarations are a violation and can get the OGL yanked from a company, and way too many companies tend to be unclear.
Alzrius said:
Also, as someone else pointed out, the odds of 4E being open-sourced in some form seem very high.
Unfortunately, many industry folks disagree with this sentiment. Most think that 4E will not be put under the OGL in any form (though having a modified d20 STL is a possibility).
Release Date
3.0 may have been announced a year in advance, but 3.5 had a lot less lead time, something like 9 or 10 months. The minimun notice possible for something is going to be about 6 months. This is due to the way distributors work for product solicitations. IF 4E is given the minimum solicitation notice, then distributors are likely to find out about it in January or February of the year it is to be released (GenCon release is one thing that everybody pretty much agrees that WotC would do), with official public announcement likely to be made at the GAMA Trade Show in Las Vegas (which is normally held at the end of February/beginning of March) the same year that it will be released. It is also possible that WotC could hold off any announcements until the GTS of the year it will be released.
Quite often, when a new version of a game is announced, sales for the version to be replaced will drop dramatically. If the release date is driven by the bottom line, then they are likely to want to reduce the interval where sales will drop so much, hence a shorter announcement/release cycle. The time between announcement and release is also going to be a frenzied period of promotional efforts in the ramp up to the new version (as we saw with 3.5) in an effort to get as many folks as possible excited about it.
Just a few thoughts.....
However, I think you probably have at least a year or two. Just make sure that what is vital about the homebrew stands apart from additions. Fluff tends to last longer than crunch, as Sean K. Reynolds might say.
