D&D 4th Edition Next Year?

[TheAuldGrump]

4th Edition is out already! You just don't know it!

Bye
Thanee

That is correct, only us cool, 'in' people are ever going to permitted to run it.

The Auld Grump

 

[Rasyr]

Ya know, I know people are annoyed with all of the 4e threads, but since I never participated in any of them, I will here. And if you don't like it, don't open the thread!

Bravo!!!

Anyway, another thing to keep in mind is when sales started to decline in Hasbro's eyes they dropped 3.5 on us and everyone complained that it was way too soon. I can't remember the exact date, but Monte said it was planned for a set period out of the gate and it ended up coming out a heck of a lot sooner. Its so true here that Hasbro calls the shots, not WotC.

3.5 was planned for 2005, but came out in 2003 because Hasbro decided that sales had slumped dramatically. Remember, 3.5 was announced the November be it was released (GenCon release), so there was less than a year's notice for its release. D&D basically went from a planned 5 year cycle to a 3 year cycle.

That leaves some important questions though.The first is: Was that cycle change a one time event or a permanent change? If it was a permanent change, then we can expect 4E sometime next year (or maybe 2007, at the latest).

If it was a one time event, did it reset the development clock (i.e. Did the 5 year cycle restart when 3.5 was released, or did it just add 2 years to the next cycle). If it reset, then expect 4E around 2008, if it just gave 4e development 2 extra years, then expect it around 2010 (this is what I, personally am hoping, not expecting, just hoping).

Now before anybody chimes in and says that Charles Ryan promised 1-2 years notice, I would like to point out that he did not actually promise anything. He said something to the effect that he wants to give 1-2 years notice. However, there are a number of factors which may prevent him from doing so.

Number 1 on that list is that too much notice and he will be effectively killing 3.5 sales. Once announced, distributors will stop ordering (at least in bulk), and word will spread to retailers, and they will stop ordering, thus pretty much ensuring that D&D3.5 effectively dies.

Number 2 is that he works for Hasbro, and may be constrained from making such an announcement by his bosses (this being a breach that he could be fired for).

Number 3 depends upon which of the scenerios listed above is actually in place for the development cycle. If the cycle is long, and sales decrease past a certain point, Hasbro will most certainly come down and say "Sales are down, do another revision to get them back up", which is what I think happened with the 3.5 release.

There could, obviously, be other reasons as well, but I think that the above are hte most relevant.


Just a few thoughts.......

 

[Rasyr]

Here's a series of honest questions: How many people are on staff at WotC, and how many 3.5 books are currently in development? Is it really all that feasible that someone is devoting a lot of time to actively developing 4E right now? It seems like if 4E was in full development right now (such as it would have to be if a release was less than a year away, in order to give adequate time to playtest), there'd be 3 or 4 guys working fulltime on it and not much else. Does WotC have that kind of manpower?

WotC has a dedicated R&D department. That is who Mearls is working for as a developer, NOT a designer (as he put it in another thread). The "designers" working for WotC are the ones cranking out the various source books, not developers.

Mearls was not the only person WotC has hired recently. No idea what positions the others hold, but we know from Mearls that R&D has increased their personel pool over the past few months (even IF it was just him - it still increased).

Is it feasible? Yes, it is. That is exactly the sort of thing R&D would be working on. And before you you start asking about adequate time to playtest, does anybody know how much time 3.5 got for playtesting, what with less than a year between announcement and release?

And yes, WotC has that sort of manpower, they have several hundred employees, IIRC.

 

[danzig138]

Seriously, is a hundred bucks of books such a hard thing to pay once every three years for a game you love?

Unless my writing career picks up, then yeah, it is. Coming up with $100 in 3 years is kind of a pain. Since you know, I haven't had a job in about 5-6 years. I too tire of the complainers. I also tire of the counter-complainers.
Either way, I'm not upgrading when it does come out, since I'm happy with d20 as is. I'll look upon 4th as a chance for me to finally pick up the 3.5 books for cheap.

 

[beaver1024]

What I love are all the whiny babies who piss their pants everytime someone says "4e." Hoping it won't be so is not going to make it go away. These whinners are more annoying that the "here comes 4e" threads are alleged to be.

By my completely unscientific estimate -

Aug, 2005 - Aug, 2006 - Mike Mearls finalizes and polishes the 4E work that has been going on since 3.5 debuted.

Aug, 2006 - Aug, 2007 - Playtesting takes place.

Gencon 2007 - 4E is announced.

Aug, 2007 - Aug 2008 - Final tweaks and inevitable "Countdown."

Gencon 2008 - 4E debuts

And the whinners? They will bend over and buy 4e, despite their whinning now. And they will then loudly proclaim it is - THE BEST EDITION EVAR! Bet me on it.

Agreed but I would change the timetable slightly because everyone knows WoTC doesn't play test.

Aug, 2005 - Nov, 2005 - Mike Mearls finalizes and polishes the 4E work that has been going on since 3.5 debuted.

Dec 2005 - 4E debuts

 

[beaver1024]

And before you you start asking about adequate time to playtest, does anybody know how much time 3.5 got for playtesting, what with less than a year between announcement and release?

Since they have no playtester credits for 3.5, one would assume they did no playtesting. This is borne out by the fact that the "new and improved" 3.5 has more flaws than the original 3.0.

 

[wingsandsword]

This is borne out by the fact that the "new and improved" 3.5 has more flaws than the original 3.0.

That's not a "fact", that's your opinion. 3.0 had loads of flaws (Harm/Heal and front-loaded rangers being the biggest one off the top of my head), 3.5 has things people may not agree with (spells being changed to be more balanced but less flavorful for example), but many fewer things that are considered to be actual flaws.

I thought you were actually joking when you suggested 4e in December, now after that second post, I'm not quite sure.

 

[William Ronald]

That's not a "fact", that's your opinion. 3.0 had loads of flaws (Harm/Heal and front-loaded rangers being the biggest one off the top of my head), 3.5 has things people may not agree with (spells being changed to be more balanced but less flavorful for example), but many fewer things that are considered to be actual flaws.

I thought you were actually joking when you suggested 4e in December, now after that second post, I'm not quite sure.

I would expect any release of a new edition to come at Gen Con, as it provides the maximum industry exposure and follows tradition. Also, WotC has products listed for 3.5 to be released next May -- including Players Handbook II.

 

[harmyn]

What I love are all the whiny babies who piss their pants everytime someone says "4e." Hoping it won't be so is not going to make it go away. These whinners are more annoying that the "here comes 4e" threads are alleged to be.

By my completely unscientific estimate -

Aug, 2005 - Aug, 2006 - Mike Mearls finalizes and polishes the 4E work that has been going on since 3.5 debuted.

Aug, 2006 - Aug, 2007 - Playtesting takes place.

Gencon 2007 - 4E is announced.

Aug, 2007 - Aug 2008 - Final tweaks and inevitable "Countdown."

Gencon 2008 - 4E debuts

And the whinners? They will bend over and buy 4e, despite their whinning now. And they will then loudly proclaim it is - THE BEST EDITION EVAR! Bet me on it.

As others have pointed out, Hasbro, not WotC will most likely make the call if they want it out sooner. Its the way corporations work and Hasbro expects a certain consitent level of profit to keep coming in. As for someone else's comment you only need to spend $100, everything else is optional, must be a solo player or never actually DM a game. Players just buy books, after they have spent $200 on new books they are going to want to use them, and not just for mental inspiration. Every D&D player buys more than 1 or 2 books unless they are the most casual of players.

But what strikes me most about this post is the crude and offensive tone its author takes in addressing someone's simple request for a confirmation of many rumors or a simple statement of debunking. Apparently he has never had to ask a question that someone else thought common or simple. That must be a very special place to be. Someone also made a comment about the grognards of the Dragonsfoot forums. As a rule those grognards are polite and friendly to one another. And when someone fails to discover a thread asking a question that's already been frequently asked, someone will stumble along, make a quick post pointing to the older link or suggesting a more thorough search back into the threads to find the posts about the topic.

Thank everyone for your time, and for reminding me about some of the basic differences between the players of various editions and game systems. Who knows, maybe I am just getting tired of the table-top video game that is the current system. Maybe its the five thousand books that have come out, that while each book individually is good, it amounts to simply too much.

Thanks again for your time.

 

[Hussar]

I heard a rumor at Gencon from a fairly big industry type...

Y'know, it's not nice to poke fun at people's weight.

Besides, at GenCon, isn't EVERYONE a fairly big industrial type?