Pathfinder 1E D&D and Pathfinder tied for first place on ICv2 Q3 RPG sales list

[BryonD]

I wonder how many 4e players have stopped buying books entirely, and rely on DDI subscriptions instead.

Me & my group are five such people.

Cheers, -- N

So we maybe can conclude that DDI subscription represent a controlling portion of the 4E player base?



IMO, even if you presume the data is questionable, piling a huge mound of salt on it and then declaring that PF is only 1/2 of the game with the D&D brand leg up is still a huge statement.

While it is true that data can be fudged, it is also true that people will play see no evil with data they don't like. There have now been a lot of iterations lately of "no it isn't" with no actual refutation provided. I know which argument sounds a whole lot more like human nature head-in-the-sand to me.

 

[Nifft]

So we maybe can conclude that DDI subscription represent a controlling portion of the 4E player base?

From what I've seen recently, there are at least four different kinds of 4e players:
1/ Those who buy yearly DDI subscriptions (and then might play other games while being subscribed);
2/ Those who buy sporadic monthly DDI subscriptions (some of these guys are very vocally unhappy with September's lack of update content);
3/ Those who mooch off the subscription(s) of their friend(s) (and are no different from more traditional book-moochers); and
4/ Those who buy the books, but not a subscription.

People who buy the subscription AND the books may be a majority of #1 or a minority. There are just too many factors for me to conclude much of anything, except that I want to suggest sales of 4e books may be falling for reasons unrelated to any shrinkage of the player base.

I wonder if the DDI model is actually bad for WotC.

IMO, even if you presume the data is questionable, piling a huge mound of salt on it and then declaring that PF is only 1/2 of the game with the D&D brand leg up is still a huge statement.

Indeed.

Cheers, -- N

 

[Herschel]

While it is true that data can be fudged, it is also true that people will play see no evil with data they don't like.

Not quite true. The one and only fact is there is no actual data presented to make a conclusion, just a note that they interviewed some people and created a supposition..

 

[Festivus]

You may be right regarding Psi Power, but the new Red Box is supposed to appeal to a wide audience, isn't it? It is WotC's "grow the game market" product.

Cheers, -- N

I'll clarify my statement regarding the Red Box. Yes, I think it's aimed at widening their audience, but the survey was of "hobby channel" retailers, distributers, etc. Red Box still sits on the shelf at the FLGS, because not many existing players are going to buy it. Target sales has the potential to be off the charts and may yet still be the gateway drug Wizards would want it to be, drawing in all sorts of new players and growing the base.

 

[Saeviomagy]

While it is true that data can be fudged, it is also true that people will play see no evil with data they don't like.

What data? This isn't data! It's missing everything required to make it data.

There have now been a lot of iterations lately of "no it isn't" with no actual refutation provided. I know which argument sounds a whole lot more like human nature head-in-the-sand to me.

There's an actual refutation in this thread, and it has numbers that are more reliable than the survey we're all talking about. It's the one you quoted: Nifft told us his sample size and asked a simple "yes or no" question of them that is based on solid facts, and therefore is pretty hard to bias.

We know the sample, we know the methodology. Both are vital to drawing any sort of conclusions from data. Both are missing from the ICv2 article.

 

[IronWolf]

Not quite true. The one and only fact is there is no actual data presented to make a conclusion, just a note that they interviewed some people and created a supposition..

True that we are not certain of what is asked or how it is tabulated, this isn't the first time they have done this. They have been doing this every quarter for several years. So it at least shows some sort of trending.

 

[Crothian]

You may be right regarding Psi Power, but the new Red Box is supposed to appeal to a wide audience, isn't it? It is WotC's "grow the game market" product.

I would think that would be a bigger seller at Barnes and Noble, Target, and other stores that non gamers go to. The B&N by me seem to get the Red Box in weekly and sell them all be the weekend.

Pathfinder books are also sold in B&N and those numbers aren't being used. So while they might be equal in the game stores even if we can take that as truth it ignores a lot of the ways gamers get there books. Maybe if we matched it up alongside some good amazon sales rankings we might get a better picture.

edit: About the only thing we really know about sales is Pathfinder PDFs out sell WotC PDFs by a huge margin!

 

[Herschel]

Festivus wrote::I'll clarify my statement regarding the Red Box. Yes, I think it's aimed at widening their audience, but the survey was of "hobby channel" retailers, distributers, etc. Red Box still sits on the shelf at the FLGS, because not many existing players are going to buy it. Target sales has the potential to be off the charts and may yet still be the gateway drug Wizards would want it to be, drawing in all sorts of new players and growing the base."


Which also is a big red flag because sales figures for distributors and retail outlets will also be very different (and a bit of a stretch to get actual figures from either source in a telling way).

From distributors alone, for example, Paizo had two "big" products ship to retail outlets. That doesn't mean either actually sold at said retail outlets but were added to stock. So if they moved 5,000 copys of a book they'll say they "sold" 5,000 copies, yet in end-users' hands there could be anywhere from 0 to 5,000 actual books sold.

Even in the Twin Cities area, even if you could get data from Barnes & Noble, Borders, Target, heck even Amazon, there are still at least seven independent retailers (FLGS) they would also need sales data from to make a relaible "chart", and a few other retailers to boot, just for this market.

And all this four days in to the new quarter?

 

[czak]

Does anyone have a subscription to the magazine that the table in question is from? Presumably they get into the methodology in the actual magazine - we are basically looking at a press release designed to sell / inform people about the content of their latest release, not a full article. IIRC ICv2 bills itself as a market research company / consultant for companies in the industry, not anything aimed at fans.

 

[Herschel]

True that we are not certain of what is asked or how it is tabulated, this isn't the first time they have done this. They have been doing this every quarter for several years. So it at least shows some sort of trending.

So they have a trend of unsupported supposition?